The mistakes Red Bull cannot afford to repeat in F1 2021’s title fight climax

Momentum is critical in motorsport. There’s the obvious reason of physics, but it’s also a tangible perception stemming from results. It can have positive and negative impacts on competitors. In Formula 1 2021’s endgame, momentum has been swinging wildly between the title protagonists.

PLUS: How Hamilton dominated in Qatar despite missing a key Mercedes advantage

Just after Mercedes took assured wins in Russia and Turkey (with bit of help from the weather at Sochi), Red Bull’s Austin surprise and stunning Mexico domination took Max Verstappen 19 points clear of Lewis Hamilton. But he hit back majestically in Brazil and Qatar – two races that had been expected to favour Red Bull.

Now there are just two rounds left of this title fight for the ages: Jeddah and Abu Dhabi. Each of those venues pose significant new challenges for the teams.

Recently, Red Bull has been rather undone by some ‘new’ factors. There was the water-blasted track surface at Istanbul, where it went the wrong way on set-up trying to get the tyres working and Verstappen, a wet-weather supremo, ended up being comfortably beaten by Valtteri Bottas.

In F1’s first visit to Qatar, the teams found that the Losail surface was smoother than many had been expecting, which meant the drivers had to work hard to build critical tyre temperature while also find a way to keep them alive on the high-energy layout.

After coming home behind Hamilton for the second time in two races, Verstappen, always and understandably loathe to give anything away unduly, hinted that this was blame for his latest defeat. Sergio Perez was also absent from the race’s lead fight after his struggles with the tyres in qualifying, with only Bottas’s Q3 blunder saving Red Bull from 2-vs-1 fight up front when Verstappen recovered from his grid drop.

“These tyres,” Verstappen said in the post-race press conference. “Sometimes you nail them and you get quite a bit of grip. If you’re not on top of it, sometimes you can make bit of a difference as well.”

Verstappen felt Red Bull didn't get on top of the tyres in Qatar

Photo by: FIA Pool

Red Bull cannot afford to get things wrong in a similar fashion on new ground in Saudi Arabia next week.

It needs to ensure its simulations are accurate and when it arrives that the RB16B gets the tyres operating as needed. This is one of the most significant factors the team must ace if it wants to clinch a first F1 title since 2013 – given it won in Abu Dhabi last year when misreading the soft tyres undid Mercedes in its all-conquering campaign’s conclusion. Nailing the altered a layout at the finale is also a must.

There is a real sense that Red Bull still has 2021’s fastest package, but that it is somewhat wasting the car’s potential, while Mercedes is “able to squeeze more performance out of the [W12’s] package”, per Hamilton.

The world champion also suspects his team has closed the gap to Red Bull in the high-speed corners where Verstappen’s squad was previously dominant.

"With a new circuit, arriving in good shape is such a big thing from the learning curve. If you’ve got a good car to start with you can just improve it from there" Andrew Shovlin

When Autosport asked after his Qatar triumph if he agreed with this assessment, Hamilton said: “Yeah, I think we just, as the year’s gone on, have understood the car more. We’ve not had an upgrade since Silverstone, so it’s quite phenomenal to see the small bits, the increments that we’ve been improving. I think it’s very close between the two cars, clearly, so I think that lines us up for a great battle, in these last two.

“We’ve just been able to do a better job overall. I hope that we can take this form into those next two.”

There is still plenty of hope for Red Bull. It was on course to win so convincingly in Baku, F1’s other fast street track, where Verstappen suffered a blowout cost that must be really being felt right now. Had the two contenders finished where they were previously running in that race, the gap between them would now be 18 instead of eight...

Baku blowout cost Verstappen a certain win

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

But the upcoming Jeddah track lacks the slower, 90-degree corners Baku possess and Mercedes has been on-song of late when it comes to applying its various downforce arrangements to the latest layout challenge. Plus, Hamilton will get his fresher, potent engine back for that event.

That he won so dominantly in Qatar without it was a powerful statement, as was his tremendous rainbow helmet livery (and as Sebastian Vettel’s was in 2020 and earlier this year too) paying tribute to the LGBTQ+ community.

PLUS: How Hamilton dominated in Qatar despite missing a key Mercedes advantage

“If we look at the track in Saudi, I think it should suit us,” reckons Mercedes’ director of trackside engineering, Andrew Shovlin. “For Lewis, we have got the more powerful engine to go in the car, so that’s going to give him a useful engine.

“The track should suit the car, but then we would have probably said in Austin that we would have felt that we should be able to put together a decent set-up and take the fight to Red Bull and they had a bit of an edge there. So, we’re always cautious to go to a race thinking that it’s all going to go our way.

“What we do know though are the things we’ve got to get right on the set-up, what we need to get right on the tyres and how they’re working, and that’s what we’re going to be busy doing over the next few days – making sure we’re taking every possible opportunity to arrive there in good shape. With a new circuit, arriving in good shape is such a big thing from the learning curve. If you’ve got a good car to start with, you can just improve it from there.”

With the points gap between the title rivals now so small, any further collision between Hamilton and Verstappen comes with considerably greater risk for the championship leader than was previously the case now his advantage has been trimmed.

But any small error from either on the high-speed run between the walls at the next race will be costly. Sound pitwall tactics will likely be crucial, with Jeddah’s 3.83-mile length looking likely to result in multiple safety cars or even red flags if the pack gets it even slightly wrong. Although it was risky, having Perez one-stop would’ve resulted in a double podium for Red Bull in Qatar…

Jeddah Street Circuit could favour Hamilton with his new engine and will require Red Bull to be fast out of the box

Photo by: F1

How the teams react to adversity will also be critical. Toto Wolff reckons Hamilton is producing his best form since he was disqualified from Brazil qualifying – Mercedes feeling an injustice was served that it was penalised for loose DRS screws meaning his damaged wing failed scrutineering spurring him on.

At Red Bull, Christian Horner’s initial reaction to Verstappen’s deserved Q3 penalty with his “rogue marshal” comments was really poor form and an unhelpful distraction for his squad. Discipline is so key at this stage.

Overall, anything can still happen to the title contenders. The Baku blowout, Verstappen’s Q3 penalty saga and looking back to the last time F1 had a multi-team title fight go down to the wire, at Interlagos in 2012, combine to reinforce this. In Brazil nine years ago, Vettel was spun around on the first lap and left to hobble home with a damaged car to claim his third championship – drama this year of tremendous spectacle deserves yet again, ideally in the form of a thrilling, legal, wheel-to-wheel fight somehow sealing the title.

"We just have to keep on pushing. So far, we’ve done an amazing job as a team compared to the previous year when they were so dominant and so fast, so for us to even be in this fight I think is very impressive. And, of course, we’re not going to give up" Max Verstappen

"Clearly the last few races, even races I’ve won, I had a feeling that they were really strong,” Verstappen says of Mercedes’ momentum. “So yeah, from my feeling, quite a few events where we actually gained points, I thought maybe we could have lost points as well.

“We just have to keep on pushing. So far, we’ve done an amazing job as a team compared to the previous year when they were so dominant and so fast, so for us to even be in this fight I think is very impressive. And, of course, we’re not going to give up.

“Clearly [in Qatar] we lacked a bit of pace, but every race weekend is different and also not even [just having] the right pace [can be pivotal]."

Red Bull can still stop Mercedes’ momentum, regain its own and win the 2021 titles. But it just must be perfect from now on to do so.

Verstappen and Red Bull can't afford any more lapses if they are to hold a resurgent Hamilton at bay

Photo by: Jerry Andre / Motorsport Images