The European Grand Prix preview

According to Giorgio Ascanelli, technical director of Scuderia Toro Rosso, Valencia was the track where things really clicked for Sebastian Vettel. During practice in 2008, Ascanelli claims that Vettel learned "to be be fast" - and he has remained so ever since. Valencia is resoundingly Vettel territory, as his victory in last year's race proved. But after stretching his championship lead to 60 points ahead of Jenson Button, some rivals suspect that this could be a turning point for Red Bull.

Although the ban on off-throttle blowing of the diffuser (well, the limiting of it to 10 per cent) doesn't kick in until the British Grand Prix at Silverstone, the revelation that engine maps may not be changed between qualifying on the race has created anticipation that the dominant team's flying lap advantage could vanish. Certainly, that's what the likes of McLaren and Ferrari suspect, although it's fair to say that there's little fear inside Red Bull about a change that could prove to disadvantage other teams more than them.

So is there any reason to expect anything other than a Vettel whitewash on Saturday? Probably not, although Mark Webber proved last year that he could hold a candle to the German by getting within a tenth of a second of him in qualifying. The real question is whether Red Bull will once again be under pressure during the race. And what's more, who will be applying the pressure?

Perhaps it will be Button. Winner last time out at Montreal, he is having an impressive season, combining speed with intelligence to take three podium finishes in the last three races. With overtaking expected to be a little more difficult in Valencia than it was in Canada despite another double DRS zone, it will be vital that he has a good qualifying run to set himself up for a potential return visit to the top step.

Perhaps it will be Lewis Hamilton. The 2008 world champion has a habit of blasting out of his low points with great performances and after his chastening experiences in Monaco and Canada, he has all the motivation he needs to go for a win at a track where victory has so far eluded him. There's no questioning his speed, even though no-one would be surprised to see him being a little more circumspect in battle.

Perhaps it will be Fernando Alonso. His Ferrari was quick in both Canada and Monaco, even though both of those races proved ultimately to be less fulfilling than might have been the case. The car is improving now that the wind tunnel troubles have been sorted, so it's reasonable to expect its upward trend to continue. That said, he has to be considered an outside bet for a victory on home soil because there's little to suggest that in 'normal' circumstances the Ferrari has the raw pace to win.

As you can see, it's hard to make a compelling case against a Red Bull win. And once you zero in on that team, it's difficult to see Vettel, who has won five races and finished second twice in this year's seven outings, not leading the way.

Although Valencia is a street track, it's not one that lends itself to upsets. The most likely source of a mix-up will be a safety car, such as the one that allowed Kamui Kobayashi to run third for 41 laps last year before a late charge on fresh rubber netted him seventh. The Japanese could be a good shout for a good run again this year, even without a safety car intervention, as he continues an impressive season. Seven top 10 finishes from seven races (albeit including the disqualification in Australia) is proof that he is one of the most consistent performers in the midfield and he again has the chance to consolidate his status as Japan's best F1 driver.

The other potential wildcard is Renault. Its form has been wildly erratic this year, although how much of that is owed to the drivers is up for debate. The car is quick in fits and starts, and were Robert Kubica behind the wheel you would fancy the black-and-gold corner to be in the mix for a podium this weekend. With Nick Heidfeld and Vitaly Petrov, it's a question of simply waiting and seeing.

But this race will be all about the imminent end of off-throttle blowing. Ferrari team principal Stefano Domenicali called it a "second championship" but all the signs are that Red Bull could be as competitive in that as it has been in what we must therefore call the "first championship."

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