The driver problems facing Mercedes in 2021

Mercedes has created one of the most harmonious and successful driver line-ups on the Formula 1 grid.

In percentage terms among the top seven squads in the 2020 constructors' championship (the regular points scorers), the balance between Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas was 35.73% from the world champion's final total of 347. This of course doesn't show the potential points Bottas lost to poor fortune last year, and Hamilton missed the chance to add to his haul with his Sakhir Grand Prix absence after contracting COVID-19. But it still adds up to the smallest gap between team-mates last year (McLaren's Carlos Sainz Jr and Lando Norris were closest on 7.62%, while Ferrari had the biggest gap - 66.33 between Charles Leclerc and Sebastian Vettel).

But F1's leading team is not immune to driver problems - just look at how fractious things were between Hamilton and Nico Rosberg when wins and titles were on the line. But since Bottas came onboard, Mercedes has successfully forged a driver line-up that is yet to experience the kind of strains it endured during the early years of the turbo hybrid era.

These days, the problems facing Mercedes when it comes to its drivers are largely on an individual basis. Some of these may not even seem particularly problematic but added up they may take their toll - and you can bet that a team that prides itself on its thoroughness and lack of complacency will be constantly considering improvements.

It's natural for drivers and teams to play down problems, but the exploits of the humans at the F1's core makes what can be a pretty cold and ruthlessly focused world so fascinating.

Mercedes itself knows that many F1 fans do not appreciate its metronomic success - which of course does not mean it shouldn't be respected, because what the team has achieved since 2014 is breathtakingly impressive. Imperfections are just flatout more interesting.

So, here a four potential headaches Mercedes must deal with in 2021, which could well have a significant impact on how F1's mightiest team traverses into the new era coming ever more clearly into sight.

The threat of COVID forcing a short-term change

As we all know, sadly, the COVID-19 pandemic still rages on. While it is impacting great swathes of society and sports, global motorsport championships face particular problems due to their nomadic nature. F1 has the added complication of having a more complex and lengthier calendar than other series.

Any travel during the pandemic means additional risk, which is a key consideration for all F1 stakeholders. The teams and drivers now know how to operate within the FIA's strict COVID guidelines, but, so frustratingly, one can do everything correctly with this coronavirus and still be most unfortunate to contract it. Mercedes and Hamilton know this after he tested positive after winning the Bahrain GP last year, with the world champion being replaced by Williams driver George Russell for that event.

"Safety is going to be key and of course I do not want to miss a single race this year," Hamilton replies when Autosport asks about his approach to staying safe in 2021 following his illness last year, recovering from which he later says, "wasn't a quick situation [and about] getting back to full strength".

"I think 99.8% or whatever it was last year was pretty spot on in terms of how we conducted ourselves and we were just really unlucky. It's difficult to be 100% safe" Lewis Hamilton

"I think 99.8% or whatever it was last year was pretty spot on in terms of how we conducted ourselves and we were just really unlucky. It's difficult to be 100% safe, as you know. But it will be, I would imagine, reduced travelling, a lot of time at home in a small bubble, like everyone else is working on. That's kind of it for now, but we'll co-ordinate with the team what is the best way forwards."

Nobody wants a driver - or anyone - to get ill with COVID, primarily and most importantly for their personal well-being. But motorsport has always contained considerable risk, so alternative driver line-ups have to be a consideration.

Mercedes has announced that its full Formula E line-up of Stoffel Vandoorne and Nyck de Vries will be its reserve drivers for 2021, with recalling Russell presumably always an option too if Williams again agrees to release him on a temporary basis.

And that's a problem for any team - driver line-up stability is a key part of F1 success, so the risk of a driver missing a race with COVID is a real threat that will still be being taken very seriously.

Talk about Hamilton's future becoming a distraction

"It's not like it's my first rodeo - I think I've been in this position where at least I've been asked the question for a period of time. I don't really feel pressured in that sense."

Hamilton is naturally at ease with playing down speculation that another season filled with questions regarding his future in F1 could jeopardise his on-track performances, having only signed a one-year deal. He has the best experience of anyone on this, having lived effectively the same situation in 2020, and he is famous for delivering his peak F1 years in an environment at Mercedes where the team allowed him to pursue off-track exploits.

Given all the commitments Mercedes and Hamilton have made together regarding his laudable quest to improve diversity in motorsport - only last week the team hosted its first event with the Mulberry STEM Academy, an initiative with the Tower Hamlets schools organisation designed to improve diversity among students considering studying the science, technology, engineering and maths subjects that are key to getting many roles at F1 teams - it seems unlikely they will have a major falling out over his future plans.

And yet, it remains possible that a sticking point neither party wants to disclose publicly is causing or will cause friction behind the scenes. After all, it was highly unusual for F1's best driver to get so close to the start of a season and still not be officially confirmed at a team where he has such a strong relationship and history.

PLUS: How Hamilton's one-year deal opens up the 2022 driver market

Both Mercedes and Hamilton have cited the unique circumstances the pandemic created as being a factor in why his 2021 deal was done so late. Toto Wolff, who also contracted COVID during the winter, is adamant that they will do things differently in 2021. Once a decision is made, the process of executing its result gets easier.

"We have agreed that we want to pick up the discussions much earlier this year," Wolff explains at the virtual launch of Mercedes' W12 car. "To avoid a situation like we had in 2020, to run out of time and be in the uncomfortable position that there is no time left before the beginning of the season.

"And that's also why we only did a one-year contract. In order to allow us to discuss the future in racing and outside of racing longer. And with the right amount of time. What we've decided is to discuss things much earlier this year, not at the end of the season."

Getting the best out of Bottas

When he appeared for the start of his Zoom-based media appearance earlier on Tuesday, Bottas gave a cheery salute to the assembled journalists. He described how the off-season had been "a good reset" with "lots of winter training, pretty extreme training as well, trying to maintain the Finnish 'Sisu' attitude, and doing things that make you tough".

He seemed invigorated, which contrasted with the occasionally deflated Bottas that ended the 2020 season. Last year, he repeated his best championship result - second behind Hamilton for the second consecutive year - which also contained the bulk of Mercedes' reliability problems (and some wildly unlucky moments, such as his tyre bursting two laps before Hamilton's at the British GP and picking up that Ferrari debris while dominating at Imola).

Perhaps the most intriguing part of Bottas's 2020 was his weekend with Russell as a team-mate. On the day that really mattered at the Sakhir GP weekend, it was the Mercedes junior that impressed most, while Bottas squandered pole position at the start of what would be an unexpectedly tough race for the Black Arrows.

PLUS: How Russell staked his claim for Hamilton's crown

The Finn's peaks are extremely high - and Hamilton is effusive in how fast he is in qualifying, high praise indeed - but stringing them together and creating more has been his downfall since joining Mercedes in 2017

At the following race in Abu Dhabi, Wolff came on Bottas's radio ahead of his final qualifying lap to provide a final word of encouragement at a crucial part of the weekend. The pair, who have a relationship going back over decade, when Bottas was on the path to F1, had agreed to communicate more during the "intense" moments F1 throws up, per Wolff. And, judging by their comments today, that looks set to continue.

"Over the years, you learn always more about what works, what doesn't," says Bottas. "But I think what I've learned recently, I think it's just that the kind of the team support and being able to communicate more with the team is quite important.

"So yeah, for sure, with Toto, we try to keep more in touch and [speak] very openly about everything, but also with other team members. Everyone in the team, especially the core race team, it's important to have good communication and good support. The team in the end is there to provide all the support they can for both of us as drivers, and I shall use it, everything I can, and all the support I can get."

The result of this arrangement will be a part of the 2021 story, with Bottas going into the new campaign having spent the off-season trying to ensure he has improved his mental approach in a bid to consistently challenge for the title.

The Finn's peaks are extremely high - and Hamilton is effusive in how fast he is in qualifying, high praise indeed - but stringing them together and creating more has been his downfall since joining Mercedes in 2017. He understandably wasn't being drawn into how he has worked on the mental side of his game, but there appears to be the start of a new element to Bottas's approach that will be worth keeping an eye on this year.

PLUS: Why Bottas won't emulate Rosberg to beat Hamilton

Bottas has also spent time "working a lot on my driving style and technique, and trying to perfect the Pirelli tyres" - the last of which is a key weakness he has historically had against Hamilton, a master of maintaining the fragile rubber at frantic race pace. But with new compounds coming for 2021, this provides another opportunity for Bottas to find a new edge.

This is perhaps the most positive problem Mercedes will have to deal with this year - improving a driver who has been part of the family for four years. A stronger Bottas could destabilise the careful harmony between the team's drivers, but is surely a net gain in a year where Mercedes has openly said it could be tripped up by the rule changes and the threat from Red Bull's late 2020 momentum gathering.

Solving its oversubscribed seat problem for 2022

The reason why the Sakhir event was so fascinating was because it gave Mercedes a perfect chance to evaluate Russell's potential for a future race drive - even though it refused to acknowledge it as such. The titles were won, it didn't really matter if it didn't win - not that Mercedes ever thinks like this - the question was, could it be successful without its long-time talisman?

The answer, up to that pitstop, was a resounding yes. But Russell's performance on the day raised further questions about his F1 future, which go hand-in-hand with those facing Hamilton and Bottas.

If Mercedes is indeed keen to ensure discussions with Hamilton are wrapped up much earlier this time around, the same will surely be the case with its other drivers. A key consideration in all of this is the 2022 rules reset - with driver stability a known factor in helping teams negotiate major regulation changes.

The outcome of how Mercedes handles these particular problems alongside its quest to win an eighth consecutive title double in 2021 will surely play a significant part in how successful it is in the coming new age

Russell is entering the third of his three-year deal with Williams, and both Hamilton and Bottas have their one-year contracts for 2021. So, right now, because it remains possible Hamilton will opt to walk away after this season, Mercedes has a three-into-two equation to solve.

It will come first to Hamilton because of "the sheer fact that we have had so much success together in the past and the relationship that we have, a trustful relationship," per Wolff.

As for Bottas and Russell, the Mercedes team boss says this: "[Valtteri] knows that it is within his own hands to influence the future. And as for George, we also know what we have in George. The future is bright for George in any case, and it depends how the driver situation in Mercedes pans out."

Mercedes' driver problem-solving a key theme of F1 2021

There is no suggestion that Mercedes cannot handle all of this, as well as the usual demanding challenges of succeeding at motorsport's pinnacle.

But, right now, there is a gradually building feeling that an era is ending.

That is a planned development in terms of F1's rules and the changes to the sporting rules with the expected sprint race experiments this year, but even an all-conquering team like Mercedes cannot continue in exactly the same vein forever.

The outcome of how Mercedes handles these particular problems alongside its quest to win an eighth consecutive title double in 2021 will surely play a significant part in how successful it is in the coming new age.