How Hamilton's one-year deal opens up the 2022 driver market

While the saga surrounding Lewis Hamilton's new Mercedes Formula 1 contract may have dragged out, there was little doubt he would put pen to paper on a new deal.

Yet while Monday's announcement had been expected, there was a surprising element of the contract extension: it would be for just one year, covering the 2021 season only.

Hamilton has previously signed deals lasting either two or three years with Mercedes, and most had expected a multi-season agreement to be struck once again.

Mercedes F1 boss Toto Wolff explained the reasoning for the one-year deal following the announcement, citing the 2022 regulations change, the uncertain global picture, and the lateness of negotiations following delays after both he and Hamilton contracted COVID-19.

But while Mercedes and Hamilton may still see their long-term futures together - evidenced by the new foundation they are forming to improve diversity and inclusivity in motorsport - the one-year deal is set to have a big impact on next year's driver market discussions.

Mercedes was always due to be a focal point of the 2022 silly season, especially after the events of last year's Sakhir Grand Prix. Valtteri Bottas is by now used to the yearly saga surrounding his future given the one-year rolling contracts he has been on with Mercedes, but the pressure will ramp up this time around as George Russell enters the final year of his Williams contract.

Russell's stunning Sakhir stand-in display for Hamilton gave Mercedes a direct comparison between Bottas and its star junior, regardless of how it may have downplayed talk of any "shootout" - and it is one that Russell came off remarkably well in.

The story of the 2022 market was always set to surround that seat. Would Mercedes finally jettison Bottas so Russell could step up, and start the next driver cycle for the Brackley team? Would it foster a mentor/mentee relationship between Hamilton and Russell, setting things up for the post-Lewis era? Or might Mercedes take an 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it' approach and keep Bottas to maintain the status quo?

PLUS: The key answers on Hamilton's new Mercedes deal

But there is another fascinating plot to follow now there are two Mercedes seats theoretically up for grabs in 2022. It has opened up the driver market more, making it far more lucrative for those angling for a move to F1's champion squad.

Much of it does depend on what Hamilton wants to do beyond this year. 2021 will see him vie for a record-breaking eighth world title, as well as surely hitting a century of both race wins and pole positions. He would be in uncharted territory, standing alone as F1's statistical greatest of all-time. The narrative is there for Hamilton to make it eight and call it quits. After all, who else is there to beat?

Mercedes must also plan for the long-term future. Even if Hamilton had signed a multi-year deal, it would have been pondering what life after Lewis would look like

Wolff wouldn't comment on whether he thought 2021 would be Hamilton's last season. "This is very much Lewis's decision," he said. "As long as he enjoys racing, I think he's very capable of going longer. He develops as a driver, he looks after himself in terms of physical training and mental preparation.

"I don't think in terms of ability that ends in 2021. But at the end, it's his decision. Lewis needs to decide what his future holds for him. That's why I wouldn't want to comment on where Lewis stands."

At 36, Hamilton is much closer to the end of his F1 career than the start, but he has shown few signs of slowing down. 2020 was statistically his most dominant year yet, and the rush he gets from winning has not been diluted even as more records fall his way. So long as the buzz is there for him, he'll keep racing.

Things are changing in F1 though. The shift in the regulations is one thing to consider, moving F1 away from its current car specification, as is the anticipated driver salary cap for 2023. While there would likely be ways to get around that for F1's highest earners - Hamilton being at the very tip of the iceberg - it will complicate the negotiation picture. That's before any consideration is given to the economic impacts of COVID-19, which Hamilton has publicly been very conscious of, that will surely ricochet for some time. His focus on the big picture projects could also give him further reason to step away from racing at the end of the year, if he feels there is a greater purpose to fulfil.

But Mercedes must also plan for the long-term future. Even if Hamilton had signed a multi-year deal, it would have been pondering what life after Lewis would look like. Replacing Bottas with Russell would not answer the question of what to do once Hamilton hung up his helmet - and is something it must position itself in the market to do.

The one-year deal allows the team to do exactly that. It will be a litmus test for just which drivers are eager on a move to Mercedes - with one driver in particular being an important player.

Max Verstappen may be on a long-term deal with Red Bull, but his undeniable star quality means he has widely been expected to begin the next 'era' of domination in F1. His performances in recent years have earned him huge amounts of praise, but the accolades they deserve - wins and championships - have not been forthcoming.

Red Bull has tried and tried to take the fight to Mercedes, only to continually fall short and never give its precocious superstar the car he truly needs to match his lofty ambitions. The fashion of Verstappen's victory in the Abu Dhabi season finale and the relative stability in the regulations has given hope of a closer fight in 2021, but if Mercedes has put its long lead time on this year's car to good use - its last update for the W11 arrived around Spa - then it could be out of reach once again.

The Verstappen camp may downplay frustration, but it is inevitable. Seeing Hamilton and Bottas divvy up the majority of wins between them won't sit well, particularly for a driver who most had anticipated would have deposed Sebastian Vettel as F1's youngest ever champion. Instead, it's a record he will never claim.

Verstappen's current Red Bull contract runs until the end of the 2023 season, yet we have seen in the past that exit clauses are common. Vettel was able to secure a switch to Ferrari for 2015 using one, getting out of Red Bull early. The team has already downplayed suggestions the departure of engine partner Honda could trigger an exit clause for Verstappen, with Christian Horner saying last year that the Dutchman remained "motivated, upbeat and trusts the team" moving forward.

But if Mercedes did come knocking, it is surely a deal Verstappen would find hard to resist. And if you're Mercedes, looking for the best two young drivers to lead you in the future, Verstappen surely has to be at the top of that shortlist. He is the one driver the big three of Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari must surely covet for the future, regardless of the faith placed in Russell and Charles Leclerc by their respective parent teams.

Wolff recognised the need for long-term planning after the announcement, but also stressed that Mercedes's first port of call would be with its existing drivers. "The team needs to decide long-term what we are going to do about drivers," he said. "Valtteri and Lewis have our 100% commitment and loyalty for 2021. We will support them with everything we have.

"We will then look beyond this year and say what is the line-up that we imagine in 2022 and onwards. Our first discussions are going to be with Valtteri and Lewis, in respecting our values of loyalty and integrity.

"But on the other side, the young drivers are the future, and therefore we need to consider how we want to set ourselves up for the years beyond."

If Mercedes did come knocking, it is surely a deal Verstappen would find hard to resist

Wolff made clear that both Mercedes and Hamilton were eager to avoid a repeat of the protracted negotiations when it came to discuss a deal for 2022, recognising the unique nature of 2020 and the unexpected hurdles. But with outside factors to consider impacting the rest of the driver market, there will surely be even more need for a swift, decisive resolution.

Continuing with Hamilton will naturally be Mercedes' priority beyond 2021, and it is unlikely he would venture elsewhere. His future really comes down to his own motivations - something hard to question currently - and interests, but that could prove difficult to decide on until later in the year.

Should he decide to step away, then Mercedes must have a back-up plan in place. Does it stick with Bottas and pair him with Russell? Or swoop for Verstappen early instead of waiting for his Red Bull deal to tick down? Or might another driver, such as Mercedes-linked Esteban Ocon, enjoy a breakout 2021 campaign to put themselves in contention?

Flexibility is king in the driver market. Signing a seven-time world champion to a one-year deal may seem like an odd move, but in reality, it has handed Mercedes a huge amount of power in the market for next year. Its options for the future are now more open than ever.