The double whammy that is defining Vettel’s F1 fate

Sebastian Vettel needs no reminding that in Formula 1 you are only as good as your last race. Being labelled as grand prix racing’s biggest star, or its biggest chump, can so often happen based on just a single weekend’s performance.

So, as the four-time world champion heads to Imola after a bruising outing in Bahrain, it’s no real surprise that he isn’t surrounded by the kind of mega hype that has accompanied Yuki Tsunoda after his stunning debut F1 weekend in Bahrain. Instead, Vettel is in need of a boost after a challenging first few weeks for Aston Martin that have left him firmly on the back foot.

Having seriously lacked mileage in pre-season testing, as a gearbox problem and a turbo issue heavily restricted his running, he arrived in Bahrain knowing he was playing catch up in terms of adapting to his new car.

PLUS: The stark challenges Vettel’s new start now faces 

But the Sakhir weekend did not bring with it much respite from his troubles. While he did at least get some miles under his belt, what the Bahrain weekend brought home to him and Aston Martin was just how much the team’s form had slipped away over the winter.

Having ended the 2020 season as the team most likely to challenge Mercedes and Red Bull, and proven itself to be a winner with Sergio Perez at the Sakhir Grand Prix, it has drifted back well into the incredibly frenetic midfield pack.

The cause seems to be simple: its Mercedes-style low-rake philosophy has been especially hurt by the new aero regulations that have been brought in to reduce downforce.

Already by the Saturday of Bahrain, Aston Martin team principal Otmar Szafnauer was making it clear that the performance swing between the low rake and the high-rake cars was as much as one second per lap.

Sebastian Vettel leads Lance Stroll, 2021 Bahrain GP

Photo by: Jerry Andre / Motorsport Images

While there have been a few mutterings of the floor changes having been unfairly pushed through in a bid to deliberately hinder Mercedes, with Aston Martin finding itself as collateral damage, the Silverstone team knows that there is absolutely zero point in crying over spilt milk. Its only option is to knuckle down, try to work out what it can do to address the floor problems and claw back the missing downforce.

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But, beyond Aston Martin finding itself needing to find some extra speed if both its drivers are going to get their way to the head of that midfield pack, it’s the fine details of the problem that appear to be weighing heavy on Vettel right now. He has been hit by the unfortunate double whammy of the problem at the heart of his Aston Martin woes being in the very area of the car that he needs it to be at its strongest.

It was fascinating after the Bahrain Grand Prix to hear Vettel’s former team-mate Charles Leclerc describe the characteristics of the 2021 F1 cars, and how they have especially changed on corner entry with the new floor, brake duct and diffuser restrictions.

Vettel wants to have faith that, when he turns in to a corner, the back end is going to stick for him. Having that security allows him to brake as late as he dares, get the car rotating, point to the exit and go. The worst thing for him is lack of stability on entry, and an unpredictable rear end in either the braking or exit phase of a corner

"In terms of driving [style] there were no changes, but there is something different," he said in an exclusive interview with Motorsport.com's Italian site. "You have to push a little less when entering corners, because the rear of the car is more difficult to manage due to the modified floor."

Those words hark back to one of the key issues that came to light last year when people were seeking answers as to why Vettel was struggling so much in a Ferrari that Leclerc was managing to manhandle to regular points and the occasional podium. All the indications pointed to the loose rear end of the SF1000 being at the root of Vettel’s main headache then.

Vettel has been long known as a driver who thrives when the rear end of his car is firmly planted - which explains why he was so good in F1's blown diffuser era as he roared to those four titles for Red Bull. He wants to have faith that, when he turns in to a corner, the back end is going to stick for him. Having that security allows him to brake as late as he dares, get the car rotating, point to the exit and go. The worst thing for him is lack of stability on entry, and an unpredictable rear end in either the braking or exit phase of a corner.

It’s a situation that has been exacerbated by F1’s turbo-hybrid cars, which are heavier and more cumbersome than the V8 monsters where Vettel excelled – so any unpredictability and instability is magnified. Leclerc is a far more adaptable driver and actually likes the rear end to be a bit loose.

Charles Leclerc leads Sebastian Vettel, 2020 Belgian GP

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

"I like a rear that moves so that I can use it to turn the car,” he said last week. “Other drivers suffer from this aspect. The SF1000 had a rear that wasn't very stable, and that was never a problem for me, but I can't answer for Seb. It's just a characteristic that suits my driving style."

PLUS: How Vettel's Ferrari mission ended on a sour note 

At Aston Martin, Vettel is finding himself battling not only a car that isn’t bang on the pace, but one also lacking the very rear end he needs to get the most out of it. And to make matters even worse, he is driving alongside a driver in Stroll who will not suffer as much from this problem.

The Canadian is known to be an instinctive driver who is perhaps at his best when a car is unpredictable and requires input from a driver to react to how it is handling at that precise moment. It’s no coincidence that two of Stroll’s stand-out qualifying performances – at Monza in 2017 and in Turkey last year – were both made in atrocious low-grip wet conditions.

Vettel’s fate is now very much in the hands of his Aston Martin bosses – not only to bring him a better car, but also one that plays to his driving style and doesn’t hurt him.

It’s incredibly bad timing for Vettel that he has found himself in a situation where new rules have been introduced that hurt the very team he has just joined. Plus that has all happened during a period of F1 where, due to homologation restrictions brought about by coronavirus, there is not the scope to make the kind of changes that could address matters fast.

Last week, Red Bull motorsport advisor Helmut Marko, a long-time confidante of Vettel, stood by his belief that the German should have taken a year out.

“I was of the opinion that he should take a year off, sort himself out, ask himself what he wants,” he said. “I believe that next year a lot is possible within Formula 1. He didn't do that. Now he sits in the Aston Martin, which of course suffers, similar to the Mercedes, they are very similar cars. And this race was far from being the one that could have brought a liberation.”

Fernando Alonso passes Sebastian Vettel, 2021 Bahrain GP

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Vettel is certainly not master of his destiny right now. If Aston Martin’s design team can bring with it the floor changes that deliver both more downforce and – crucially – that added stability at the rear, then that could be enough for Vettel to turn things around.

PLUS: The 'new' F1 drivers who need to improve at Imola

Speaking recently, former grand prix driver and Sky F1 pundit Johnny Herbert expressed his complete faith that Vettel still had what it takes to impress in F1.

It’s incredibly bad timing for Vettel that he has found himself in a situation where new rules have been introduced that hurt the very team he has just joined. Plus that has all happened during a period of F1 where there is not the scope to make the kind of changes that could address matters fast

“If Aston can give him the tools, I honestly think we will see a resurgence of Sebastian Vettel,” he said. “If the balance is where you want it to be, and you're able to have the flexibility of moving it left or right, or forward or backwards, it gives you confidence. And once you get that confidence, everything starts to flow...”

It’s the exact kind of breakthrough that Vettel knows cannot come soon enough.

Sebastian Vettel, Aston Martin

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images