The difference between Mercedes’ stumble and the fall of F1 giants

Red Bull bucked a Formula 1 trend on its way back to the summit. Even during seven comparatively fallow seasons after the Sebastian Vettel-fronted glory days, it never satisfied the criteria of a ‘fallen giant’. The fractious Renault-powered fragility that bottomed out with a winless 2015 and fourth in the points took it close. And throughout its time off the top, it played second fiddle to Mercedes. But Christian Horner and co remained in the mix.

Certainly, the slump was not in the same league as its preeminent predecessors. An exceptional Fernando Alonso in 2012 merely masked a lukewarm Ferrari coming down from its 2000s pomp. The signs of a McLaren revival have only properly arrived under the leadership of Andreas Seidl. As for Williams, it remains one of F1’s great ‘superteams’ only thanks to history.

So, immediately after a decline to third in the constructors’ championship courtesy of its torrid adaption to ground-effects, where will Mercedes fit in? Has a ninth constructors’ crown simply been delayed, or this the beginning of a decade or more lost in the wilderness?

At first glance, there is cause for concern. Mercedes has got a major rule change wrong and, in this new cost cap age, cannot simply spend its way out of trouble. Since the next landmark rejig is not planned until 2026, the potential competitive reset has been and gone. Irrespective of Red Bull facing a 25% cut to its aerodynamic testing over the next 12 months – a double whammy of winning the crown and breaching the 2021 budget – and Ferrari having its own 7% slash for second, Mercedes has plenty of catching up to do.

Toto Wolff has revealed that the extensive toils to resolve the W13’s porpoising put the team “eight to 10 months” behind with its usual performance-finding upgrades. That’s compounded by the 0.684 seconds that top Silver Arrow qualifier Lewis Hamilton was beaten by over a flying lap in the Abu Dhabi finale. Then, to complete an initially bleak outlook, the goalposts are moving. Mercedes must improve above and beyond its 2022 shortcomings to try to match its rivals’ own gains over the winter.

However, the team has shown an appreciation for the situation. Wolff says: “We are analysing what were the reasons in the past that teams that dominated over an era suddenly lost performance. You can trace it back pretty well.” When it comes to the fall of sporting dynasties, the Austrian doesn’t just take inspiration from F1. He has brushed up on Manchester United to understand the post-Sir Alex Ferguson rot that still clouds the club.

Regardless of whether Mercedes is led by the example of football or F1, there’s much to suggest it isn’t on the cusp of a dormant period. The Three-Pointed Star hasn’t lost a talismanic figure to coincide with or even create its downfall. This is not like when Adrian Newey was placed on gardening leave by Williams in 1996 ahead of his McLaren move. Jacques Villeneuve still steered the squad to a title double the year after, but the triumphs were predicated on Newey’s work. Behind the scenes, the ship was already sinking as his immediate legacy waned. Nor has Merc gone through anything like the dissolution of the Ross Brawn-Jean-Todt-Rory Byrne-Michael Schumacher dream team that still haunts Ferrari.

Ferrari is still trying to steady its ship after its domination of the early 2000s

Photo by: Motorsport Images

“We have the same organisation, the same capability, the same financial funding,” adds Wolff. “I believe we have things in common and we can trace it back. We are aware of all that and the regulation changed. We got it wrong. But all the other pillars are still in place. We have to tune the systems and understand.” Stability is the order of the day, quite unlike the goings on in Maranello, where Mattia Binotto is currently clearing his desk.

When it comes to retaining key personnel, Hamilton thinks Mercedes is well set up. On his team’s chances of taking the fight to Red Bull as soon as 2023, he says: “We've got a great leader. We've got amazing support from the Daimler board, who all like racing. Then it's the core group of people. There’s great communication throughout the organisation.

So, immediately after a decline to third in the constructors’ championship courtesy of its torrid adaption to ground-effects, where will Mercedes fit in?

“Toto is very focused as a leader to really elevate people. I don't know any other leader, that I've worked with at least, that goes and says, ‘Hey, how’re things at home? How can I help support you better, so you have more time with your wife or your husband or with your partner, with your kids, so that you come to work and be happier and want to commit more?’ That’s who Toto is… because of that, there's a real general hunger within the team.

“I'd like to think that we're going to be the ones that are competing with [Red Bull and Ferrari] and being able to beat them again. I do believe that, for sure.”

Mercedes is keen to impress that it employs a ‘no blame’ culture. That stands to reason, since there’s been no kneejerk firings. The key personnel have stayed put and owned the shocker that 2022 turned out to be. That stability has made it easier to pinpoint the windtunnel discrepancies that caused the season to unravel before it even began. So, although the curve to play catch is steep, there’s reason to believe that a slip to third place is as bad as it gets, and that Mercedes is already picking itself back up.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes AMG, 2nd position, George Russell, Mercedes AMG, 1st position, Riccardo Musconi, Senior Race Engineer, Mercedes, on the podium

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images