The data that leaves both Red Bull and Mercedes uncertain of supremacy at Portimao

Portimao poses plenty of problems for Formula 1’s teams and drivers.

In 2020, the new track surface was heavy with bitumen and generally oily, which, combined with cool conditions, left the drivers massively struggling for tyre temperature. That meant many mistakes and eventually settled the race result, with Lewis Hamilton critically able to keep his tyres hotter once the damp early laps had passed, which meant he was able to surge past team-mate Valtteri Bottas and claim the win.

In 2021, the track is grippier overall, with the surface no longer so saturated with bitumen, but it is still very tricky – in part thanks to rain at the venue in recent days, with temperatures still on the cool side. There were noticeably fewer lock-ups in practice on Friday compared to six months ago, but the challenges remain stark, with other factors also impacting performance.

For a start, there was an increase in temperatures as the day wore on (by around 4°C on the track between FP1 and FP2, but only 1°C in the air, meaning many people remained snugly wrapped in coats throughout the day). This meant times got slower in the afternoon session, so the teams will need to be wary of this after FP3 when looking ahead to qualifying, which will start at the same time.

Then there's the wind factor, which Pirelli reckons was the bigger reason behind the times being slower in FP2. The wind was pushing the drivers into most of the corners today, which would cause sudden oversteer snaps. The drivers also had to contend with a near headwind down the main straight and into the rapid opening corner, which would be a crosswind come the ever-tightening Turn 3 right – and this led to plenty of corrections and brief off-track excursions at that point.

Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

Now we come back to the track surface and a time-influencing factor today – something that will mean the drivers facing an intriguing choice when it comes to the critical laps in qualifying. This concerns their preparation for flying laps, with the times tumbling in FP1 as the drivers went deeper into their opening runs.

But in FP2, Max Verstappen's best time came on his first flying lap. For comparison, Valtteri Bottas's second flying lap was his fastest, while Hamilton's session-topping time also came on the first effort – and there is a suggestion that this could become the trend come qualifying as there is quite a track evolution factor this weekend. Both Hamilton and particularly Verstappen were running deeper into the session when they completed their fastest times compared to Bottas.

Data seen by Autosport suggests the pair are so close that at certain corners – in this case the Turn 8 double-apex right in the second sector – that just catching a gust of wind at the wrong time could be the difference between winning or losing pole on Saturday

The quirks of the struggles to get the tyres into the best operating window at Portimao was also a factor in the FP2 times being slower. The 2021 trend of Friday practice being generally busier throughout continued, and so the drivers also had to contend with traffic on their best laps.

Team-by-team overall FP2 order

Looking at the overall best times in FP2 (above), we can reflect that there have been smaller gaps between Mercedes and Red Bull so far in 2021. But the consensus is that the latter can get closer than the 0.143-second gap between Hamilton and Verstappen (we're also just looking at FP2 times, because of its scheduling relevance to both qualifying and the race).

In fact, data seen by Autosport suggests the pair are so close that at certain corners – in this case the Turn 8 double-apex right in the second sector – that just catching a gust of wind at the wrong time could be the difference between winning or losing pole on Saturday.

Mercedes certainly feels the battle is too close to call at this stage, despite topping both sessions on Friday.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Medium tyre averages

In the long run averages on the medium tyres, which is again expected to be the best race tyre, this bears out again. But both teams have reason to feel that things actually look better for their respective squads than the times (above) suggest.

For Red Bull, this is because Bottas's run on the yellow-walled rubber was much shorter than Verstappen's, and the Finn would have been expected to go slower as the stint wore on. But Mercedes actually found both its cars had picked up damage during the FP2 long runs – unspecified bodywork damage that it said was nevertheless costing both drivers time, with Hamilton's medium tyre average significantly slower than his team-mate's effort, against the historical trend.

Hamilton is also not happy with the balance of his car following the opening day of practice. He was vocally displeased in FP1 but then looked in command during his run to the top spot in FP2. However, Mercedes said "we've got some work to do to improve the balance for him tomorrow", per the team's trackside engineering director, Andrew Shovlin.

"It's a little grippier here this year but it was very windy today, so I think everybody was struggling with balance and sliding around," said Hamilton. "This morning seemed to be a little bit better, then this afternoon it got warmer and windier so it seemed to make it harder for people to find time and work on their balance.

"I think it'll be a close one this weekend. I don't know what Max's lap was like in FP2 but mine wasn't perfect, so we definitely have some time to come from the car and improvements to make. But I'm sure Red Bull have too."

Red Bull has also brought several aerodynamic updates to this weekend's race and spent time evaluating them on Sergio Perez's car in FP1 before also fitting them to Verstappen's for the second session.

The changes are a front brake duct tweak, changes to the bargeboards and sidepod deflectors, as well as a diffuser update. All of these will mean the team needs to analyse the various performances overnight and in again FP3, which means it could yet find something of a step in the battle versus Mercedes.

Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

“It’s very tricky out there and not easy to switch the tyres on which is a shame because it seems to be all about tyre preparation and temperature,” said Verstappen. “It’s the same situation for everyone so we just need to make sure we are on top of the car so we can make the best out of it.

Red Bull is stronger in the high-speed stuff – so Turn 1 here, as well as the sweeping Turns 7/8 complex. It is suggested this translates to a 0.15s gain for Red Bull in such corners, while Mercedes typically claws back 0.3s in the slower turns

“It seems tight with Mercedes this weekend again and the car felt alright, but we still have some work to do ahead of tomorrow – that’s for sure.”

What was really interesting today was how Portimao showed up the major strengths of the two teams around its layout.

The data Autosport has seen suggests that both were near-equal in a straight-line (with all the usual practice caveats about engine modes and fuel loads applying) but the differences come in the varying corner types.

As Mercedes predicted after winning in Bahrain, Red Bull is stronger in the high-speed stuff – so Turn 1 here, as well as the sweeping Turns 7/8 complex. It is suggested this translates to a 0.15s gain for Red Bull in such corners, while Mercedes typically claws back 0.3s in the slower turns. The Portimao mix of high- and low-speed corners produces the very close lap times logged today.

Soft tyre averages

Behind the top three comes the usual midfield tight fight. But based on today's showing, things are a bit different compared to Bahrain and Imola.

At the head of the midfield come Ferrari and McLaren, which were actually split by Fernando Alonso's Alpine on overall pace in FP2 – the double world champion feeling the most comfortable he’s been with the A521 so far this season and hitting his stride from the off.

Fernando Alonso, Alpine A521

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

But the red and orange squads lead the way in the averages on both the medium and soft tyres (we'll get to why we're placing AlphaTauri further down shortly, despite its table-topping medium average pace, as well discounting Alfa Romeo and Aston Martin being so high up on the softs).

The soft tyres could be crucial for all the teams come qualifying and the race, so it was interesting to see that Red Bull didn't do a long run on this rubber in FP2. Perhaps this is because it is anticipating doing as Mercedes did in 2020 and progressing through Q2 on the mediums, which the Black Arrows also used to set pole – such was the difficulty of getting the softs into the window with the low-grip surface.

But at the start of the race, even allowing for the drizzle factor, it was the soft-starting drivers that had an advantage, which perhaps explains why Mercedes opted to spend time evaluating that rubber in FP2.

But for the teams that will almost certainly take the softs to make it into Q3, and therefore start the race on that rubber, things look good for Ferrari.

“We saw in Imola that Friday may be misleading when comparing our one lap pace to our competitors, so we are wary of that,” said Carlos Sainz Jr. “I think the key to the weekend is going to be understanding the tyres, as we set similar times on soft and mediums.

“We need to master the car’s behaviour with the different compounds, understand how to warm up the tyres properly and then identify when is the right time to try and set the fastest lap.”

Alfa Romeo and Aston Martin's runs on the softs are on the shorter end, with Mercedes explaining its own short run on this tyre during the second half of FP2 was down to needing to pit to have enough time to fully evaluate the mediums.

Carlos Sainz Jr., Ferrari SF21

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Aston felt both Sebastian Vettel and Lance Stroll were unable to commit as they would’ve ideally liked through the sweeping final corner and were shipping time down the pitstraight as a result.

AlphaTauri is perhaps the big outlier based on today's times compared to how it has been going so far at the start of 2021. Its best medium tyre run is very short and its second best, over 10 laps, would drop it to seventh best, behind Aston over the same stint length. The team also felt its main problem overall on Friday was with getting the AT02 to gel properly with the softs, while Pierre Gasly had his own theory.

“Compared to the last few races, we’re really struggling on braking in the low-speed areas, so we need to look at what we’ve changed,” he explained. “Obviously, the conditions and layout are very different here – it’s quite slippery – so we might need to make some different adjustments to usual.”

"If the wind dies down, we will improve and I think FP2 was the worst of it this weekend. This circuit is incredibly exposed and undulating, so if you do get a gust of wind you really do feel it" George Russell

Williams looks to have the edge on Alfa on overall pace, but things are much closer in the long runs, while Haas again was far off the pack under all measures on Friday.

“The wind really picked up in the afternoon and it is no secret that we struggle in those conditions,” said Williams driver George Russell. “I don’t want to overpromise and underdeliver, but, if the wind dies down, we will improve and I think FP2 was the worst of it this weekend.

“This circuit is incredibly exposed and undulating, so if you do get a gust of wind you really do feel it. Looking ahead to tomorrow, I think Q2 is the minimum for us, and I hope we will be fighting for points on Sunday.”

The race will be a one-stopper barring any chaos from incidents, with the long pitlane time for the second race in succession a big factor in that consideration.

George Russell, Williams FW43B

Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images

What is interesting is that there is a second DRS zone for 2021 and the original one on the pit straight has been made shorter. The second zone on the run to the Turn 5 left-hand hairpin could help the drivers to close in for passes, or keep the pressure on rivals for longer, while the shorter run into Turn 1 perhaps makes overtaking a bit tricker.

"I don’t see it being a negative," said McLaren's Daniel Ricciardo, when Autosport asked what impact the second DRS might have on the race – the Australian hinting after FP2 that the familiarity with the MCL35M he felt he lacked in the opening rounds was perhaps now arriving.

"I think last year, from memory, there were some [occasions battling] kind of close in Turn 5, but maybe not close enough. It’s certainly not going to create the easy DRS overtakes. If anything, it’s just going to put us in striking range and that’s ultimately what we want. I think it will be a good thing."

So, if the battle at the front is as close as practice suggests, then come the race we might logically expect a yo-yoing fight between Mercedes and Red Bull for the certain supremacy neither could claim on Friday.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images