The times that show Red Bull is behind on all fronts so far at Zandvoort

*THIS ARTICLE HAS BEEN UPDATED

Well, that was quite the turnaround in five days for Max Verstappen.

The world champion dominated at Spa to leave with a 93-point lead despite his 14th place grid spot (13th in the queue considering the cars that actually took the start), but ended the Friday running in front of his home fans having exited FP1 after just 10 minutes and then been massively off Ferrari’s leading pace in FP2.

But, this being Formula 1 and all that, it doesn't mean he's out of running for a second consecutive Dutch Grand Prix victory, and in fact the picture for the frontrunners is much cloudier than usual.

The reason is that the F1 organisation’s data link to its Biggin Hill base back in the UK was lost early during FP2. It wasn’t a long outage as the back-up system was quickly in place and it began around when Lewis Hamilton reported a radio problem to his Mercedes team.

But the brief blackout did then mean that the teams suffered a data outage, which briefly impacted their ability to track their cars on GPS. Things improved as the back-up system fired up – which meant timing for each lap was still being recorded at the track – but it left the teams only able to rely on the data recorded onboard each of their own cars. In short, they really don’t know where they stack up against the opposition.

But because they have access to their individual telemetry data as usual, it doesn't mean run plans will need to be altered for FP3 on Saturday. It may, however, mean their usual race strategy data isn't as complete as usual. But they will be to re-engineer the picture at other squads once the full set of session lap times is released.

Overall FP2 order

So, although we don’t have any long run data to pick through right now at Zandvoort, with the usual late-FP2 high-fuel running in any case interrupted by Yuki Tsunoda being caught out by a gust of wind and getting beached in the gravel, we can assess how things turned out on Friday for the frontrunners in terms of their outright speed.

Leclerc topped Friday practice at Zandvoort but wasn't as comfortable as team-mate Sainz in his Ferrari

Photo by: Alastair Staley / Motorsport Images

Ferrari ended up on top thanks to Charles Leclerc’s FP2-topping 1m12.345s. But the Monegasque wasn’t entirely happy with his car handling – and indeed didn’t set the quickest time at any of the track’s three timing sectors on his best flier.

“We picked up the pace a little in FP2,” said Leclerc. “But we were not quite there with the car balance on my side. There’s some work ahead of us and I’m confident we can make a step forward by tomorrow.”

Watching trackside at the Turn 10 long left-hander late in the second sector during FP1, Leclerc was wrestling his Ferrari much more than the serene Carlos Sainz and it was no surprise that the Spaniard therefore led the way for the Scuderia in that session.

Leclerc seemed to be struggling more getting the rear of his car to stay in line after swinging right from the preceding fast right-hander and is likely a symptom of his ongoing handling issues.

Mercedes had topped FP1 with George Russell leading a 1-2 ahead of Hamilton. The Silver Arrows squad is similar to Ferrari in that it is much happier being back on a high-downforce setting where it can run a lower rideheight, just as it couldn't at Spa and considering drag isn't really a hinderance around this track.

“Today wasn’t great but we’ll have a look at everything overnight, we can do better than this. I wasn’t surprised when I saw the time difference, there are a lot of things that we can improve on" Max Verstappen

Essentially, Mercedes feels its car is back in a better performance window and it’s just running at a more comfortable lower rideheight for producing performance. This resulted in Hamilton’s tiny 0.072s gap to Leclerc during the FP2 qualifying simulations.

Autosport understands that Hamilton made several significant set-up changes between FP1 and FP2, which Mercedes is going to evaluate overnight before picking its preference ahead of FP3. Also, super-slow-motion images showed Hamilton’s floor being battered by the kerbs on its right-hand side at one stage during FP2, but the team did not subsequently discover any resulting damage.

“The car has been a lot easier to balance here than in Spa and we look to be in a better place in terms of pace," said Mercedes’ director of trackside engineering, Andrew Shovlin.

"The sessions were a bit messy with a few red flags but we managed to tick off our test items and have a decent idea where we are going with the car spec for tomorrow. Neither driver has the balance where they want it yet and both felt the car was a little easier to drive in the morning. In the afternoon, we were understeering in some places and lacking stability in others. Not major issues but ones we are going to need to put right overnight if we plan on giving Red Bull and Ferrari any trouble tomorrow."

The Dutch GP track appears to suit the Mercedes package better compared to its Spa struggles

Photo by: Alastair Staley / Motorsport Images

Red Bull ended FP2 with Verstappen down in eighth having completed an unusual run plan compared to the rest because of his FP1 stoppage (heading straight out on the softs before using that compound for his qualifying simulation effort just after Sainz had kicked that off for the frontrunners).

The FP1 stoppage was caused by an issue with the ‘Friday’ gearbox Verstappen had been running – ahead of the session it was revealed Red Bull had broken the gearbox seal to change that unit’s main shaft locking insert – and as that has now been switched out for the race unit he was set to run anyway the team doesn’t fear the home hero having to take a grid penalty.

But losing all that FP1 running meant Red Bull couldn't really change the balance on Verstappen’s car when he did get out in the second session, due to the time pressures of the 60 minutes available, and he wasn't happy with how his RB18 felt.

“Today wasn’t great but we’ll have a look at everything overnight, for sure we can do better than this,” said Verstappen. “I wasn’t surprised when I saw the time difference, there are a lot of things that we can improve on, we’ve got FP3 tomorrow morning to try out a few things ahead of qualifying.”

It is thought that the strong sunshine on Friday afternoon and the resulting temperatures also impacted Verstappen’s car balance, which likewise was an issue for team-mate Sergio Perez. The Mexican, who ended up 12th in FP2, was left to rue getting “a lot of traffic today”.

“I got one of the Ferraris on my fast lap [in FP2] and I couldn’t get a proper read on my soft tyre unfortunately, without causing an incident,” he added. “Degradation seems to be pretty high on the long runs so it will be interesting to see what we are able to do with the strategy.”

Carlos Sainz, Ferrari F1-75

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

So far then at Zandvoort, it appears as if F1 is in for a close multi-team fight for pole, with grid positioning crucial given overtaking challenges at this old-school venue.

It might have endured a challenging start at this event with Ferrari’s high-downforce car strength being rewarded at the same time, but given its previous sublime form, Red Bull simply becomes the dark horse to emerge best from a very clouded practice picture over the rest of the weekend.

*UPDATE

That remains true even after the missing timing data became available late on Friday night, but the times reveal the scale of Red Bull's challenge.

As well as trailing over one-lap with its set-up challenges, the team is behind Ferrari and Mercedes on race pace on both the soft and medium tyres based on the late-FP2 running up to Tsunoda's stoppage.

On the mediums, which are again the favoured race tyre, Ferrari leads the way with an average of 1m17.383s over a five-lap stint, with Mercedes just 0.116s behind but Russell having completed three more laps compared to Leclerc. This should encourage Mercedes given its typical race pace superiority compared to its Saturday form. Verstappen, completing the same stint length as Leclerc, winds up 0.259s back.

On the softs, Mercedes produced the best run with Hamilton's 17.220s average over five laps. But Ferrari will be pleased to be just fractionally adrift (0.005s) despite Sainz going six laps further on his race simulation. Perez's 17.254s puts Red Bull an also tiny 0.034s behind Mercedes on this compound.

One big unknown going into the race will be the potential for the hard tyre to make strategies more flexible as Pirelli, which said it saw no graining on any compound during the Friday running, feeling the pace difference from hard to medium was smaller than it anticipated.

Verstappen stops on track in FP1, but Red Bull remains a threat at the front

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images