The continuing trends that should sustain F1's title fight at the Styrian GP

Almost a year ago, Formula 1 headed to Austria for its delayed 2020 season opener at the Red Bull Ring.

Many months earlier, in a pretty much pre-COVID lifetime, Mercedes had dominated testing, but needed the delays of the initial social lockdowns in Europe to fix a pretty major engine reliability problem. Across the first two races of that campaign, the season’s initial trends were revealed, but when F1 departed for Hungary the pecking order picture was inevitably incomplete at that stage.

In 2021, F1 arrives in Austria with seven races already completed, which means there is plenty more data to go on to see how this year’s pecking order generally stacks up. And on Friday at the Red Bull Ring, the trends from recent races at 'normal' tracks played out again in the opening practice sessions for this weekend’s Styrian Grand Prix.

In short, Red Bull appears to have the slight edge on ultimate pace – as evidenced by Max Verstappen topping both sessions on Friday, but the gap to Mercedes is actually closer than it appears and the interlopers in between the Dutchman and Lewis Hamilton in FP2 can probably be discounted.

But Mercedes seems to be right in play when it comes to the long runs, although the unpredictable conditions on Friday did rather cloud how the race pace picture looks right now.

FP2 overall times

In terms of single lap speed on Friday, Verstappen led the way only in FP2 after Hamilton lost his best time (a 1m05.335s) to a track limits infringement – running too wide out of the final corner. Mercedes estimates he only gained 0.05s by being out there, where the FIA is tightly policing things and at the preceding rapid right-hander, which puts him right with Verstappen's session-leading 1m05.412s.

Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W12, Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

But data seen by Autosport suggests Red Bull and Mercedes were running very similar engine modes on Friday, so both could have gone faster and indeed they will be turned up come qualifying. This apparently somewhat explains why McLaren’s Daniel Ricciardo finished second in FP2, as his car was tracked running in a higher engine mode compared to Verstappen – although it was clearly a very handy lap.

The recent trend has been for Red Bull to have the edge on top speed once the Honda engine is turned up to the maximum and because of its recent choices on downforce levels. The latter situation is eased by three DRS zones in Austria, so teams can go for higher downforce levels than might be expected, because the rear wing will be open for so much of the lap in qualifying. The extra downforce will then help with preserving tyre life.

In recent 'normal track' races, particularly at Barcelona, Red Bull appeared to be weaker compared to Mercedes on rear tyre wear at the end of stints, and there is evidence to suggest that was the case again at the end of the opening stint at Paul Ricard last time out. This is the only like-for-like comparison that can be taken from that race because in the second stint Red Bull went aggressive and switched Verstappen onto a two-stopper.

“There were a few tweaks to the setup going into the afternoon and encouragingly, our pace looked a bit better both on single lap and long run - although it could have been a mixture of conditions coming towards us and improving the car”Andrew Shovlin, Mercedes

So, the home team will be working out its progress in this area and evaluating how the DRS effect will play a part in the sessions that matter this weekend, where rear tyre degradation will be the limiting factor (that was set to be the case last weekend until the pre-race rain refocused the issue onto the front tyres graining).

“Overall, it’s been quite a good day for us and although there are a few things to look into, which is very normal for a Friday, I am quite happy with where the car is at the moment,” said Verstappen.

“In the second practice, Lewis had a faster lap time that was deleted so it looks a bit different to what is shown at the moment on the timesheets, but we expect to see both teams at the top. I think it will be a very tight battle again.”

Medium tyre averages

*N/A Williams

This theory plays out in the long run averages – although there are reasons to be both pleased and concerned at each of F1’s leading squads based on the data we have gathered, and these concerns the usual caveats that apply to interpreting the practice times. Specifically on Friday, it was the impact of the weather.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

The medium tyre averages (above) look very good for Red Bull in its battle against Mercedes, as it went faster over a longer stint. But both teams did their long run data-gathering on this compound in FP1 because the weather forecast predicted the second session was going to be interrupted by rain (an 80% chance was predicted).

Although that didn’t really happen – there were a few spots early in FP2 but not enough rain to mean the drivers had to switch to the wet-weather tyres – the data gathered by Mercedes and Red Bull on the mediums happened in an unrepresentative session compared to the race start time. Plus, traffic was a problem throughout the day, which can have a knock-on impact on the averages.

Hard tyre averages

*N/A Alpine, Aston Martin, AlphaTauri, Alfa Romeo, Haas

But the same cloudy caveat needs to be applied to the hard tyre average (above), which looks better for Mercedes. Essentially, the conditions for the second session were cooler than expected and so there’s no guarantees that the times and order would look the same if things had been hotter.

Indeed, Mercedes is unsure if it was the changes it made to the W12 before FP2 or the lower temperatures that helped Hamilton get on terms with Verstappen over one lap and the team look typically stronger (although, as has been seen on several occasions this year, only just) on the long runs on the hards.

Both Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas were apparently happier with the W12’s balance from the off than they have been on some recent Fridays – particularly at the street tracks. But Mercedes couldn’t quite understand why it was offset in terms of one-lap pace to Red Bull in FP1.

“There were a few tweaks to the setup going into the afternoon and encouragingly, our pace looked a bit better both on single lap and long run,” said Mercedes’ director of trackside engineering, Andrew Shovlin. “Although it could have been a mixture of conditions coming towards us and improving the car.”

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12

Photo by: Charles Coates / Motorsport Images

Soft tyre averages

*N/A Ferrari, McLaren, Alfa Romeo

Things are a little bit less close in the soft tyre long-run averages, with Mercedes leading the way here as well. The Black Arrows was actually 0.343s slower than Red Bull in a soft tyre long-run in FP1 (the teams completed additional race running in the first session than is typical even with the reduced practice running for 2021, again because of the threat of rain that never came) and over a shorter stint.

Autosport understands that the averages are comparable in terms of being run on similar fuel loads at Mercedes FP1-FP2, with the much-improved average in FP2 down to the set-up changes and, again, possibly the track conditions coming to the team.

“It wasn’t feeling too bad,” Hamilton said after FP2. “I think it’s very close I think with the whole pack. I think the Red Bulls, definitely, will be really hard to beat. I think they’ve just got the edge, maybe more. We don’t know what they’re going to do when they turn that engine up.

“But yeah, I really don’t know what to say because I didn’t really have too many big problems today. Happier with where we got the car to. I’ve been working flat-out like all week, trying to understand where I want to put the car. I’m hopeful that the hard work starts paying off soon.”

The soft tyre is likely to be a much more attractive option to start the race on this weekend compared to Paul Ricard, where all the Q3 runners managed to get through Q2 using the mediums, as the soft was essentially a one-lap qualifying compound around that venue.

In 2020, both races at the Red Bull Ring had Mercedes starting on the softs, although Verstappen managed to get through on the mediums for the season opener before retiring with an engine problem before it could be seen if that would make any difference to the W11’s massive pace advantage back then.

It’s estimated that there is a 0.5s delta between the softs and the mediums this weekend, which means teams could be vulnerable to trying to get through Q2 on the mediums given the closed-up nature of the field this time around.

But the race strategy possibilities are intriguing – because Mercedes went from winning on a soft-hard one-stopper in the 2020 Austrian GP and followed that a week later with a soft-medium strategy (that Verstappen also used before taking a late stop to unsuccessfully chase the fastest lap bonus point in a distant third place) in F1’s inaugural Styrian GP – the first repeat venue race in a single campaign.

McLaren pit crew members attempt to assist Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes W12, in the pit lane

Photo by: Steven Tee / Motorsport Images

One unusual Friday feature from Austria today that could influence how the latest round of the Red Bull vs Mercedes battle shakes out concerns Bottas. His spin leaving the Mercedes pitbox with just under 20 minutes to go in the second session has resulted in a three-place grid penalty, so the highest he can start the race is fourth.

If any of Verstappen, Hamilton or Sergio Perez qualify ahead – as well as any more interlopers, with AlphaTauri’s Pierre Gasly looking rapid from the off in FP1 today before missing the second session due to a possible problem with his engine, which was detected during the lunchbreak and forced Honda to investigate – then he will start even further back. This will of course mean having a harder time attacking or defending Mercedes’ rival depending on how qualifying shakes out on Saturday.

Bottas told the Styrian GP stewards that spin was caused by him trying “something new, which was to leave in second gear”. What Bottas and Mercedes appear to have been trying is an attempt to minimise wheelspin when leaving the pitbox – although the stewards’ noted the wheelspin Bottas got today was actually “much higher” and therefore “the result unexpected”.

The reason why Mercedes is concerned about this very specific part of race concerns its French GP defeat – particularly how it was so caught out by Verstappen’s undercut at the first round of pitstops. The team detected Hamilton had lost crucial time with wheelspin and so appears to have been trying to find a different approach, which rather backfired for Bottas.

“I think it’s very close I think with the whole pack. I think the Red Bulls, definitely, will be really hard to beat. I think they’ve just got the edge, maybe more. We don’t know what they’re going to do when they turn that engine up"Lewis Hamilton

The Finn also ended up down in 12th in the final FP2 standings, but this was down to catching traffic on his sole flying lap on the softs.

Behind the typically close and congested midfield, there was a long-run average logged on Friday that was described as particularly “eye-catching” by one team insider. It’s George Russell, putting Williams third in the hard tyre order.

His 1m09.920s over 19 laps compares very nicely even with Mercedes and Red Bull, and Russell said after FP2 that his FW43B “felt good” and reckoned “our high fuel runs are looking really strong, so there are plenty of positives”. Given rear tyre wear was the limiting factor for the drivers today, and likely will be if things stay dry in the coming sessions, this reflects what Russell feels is good recent progress in terms of tyre management, which was key to his 12th place finishing position at Paul Ricard.

George Russell, Williams FW43B

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images

“I think it’s come on a lot to be honest,” he said of his tyre management skills in Thursday’s pre-event press conference. “Obviously every race I do I’m constantly learning and I think that’s the beauty of this sport. But you’ve just got to be dynamic, because what works one week doesn’t work the next – that’s what makes it so difficult.

“And I think it’s almost [about] learning to be dynamic, learning to not be scared to change your approach just because it worked a few weeks ago – different conditions, different surface, characteristics play a massive factor. So, I’d say that’s the most difficult part of being a Formula 1 driver.

“We all know how to jump in the car over one lap and just go as fast as we can, that’s in some regards the easier part because we’re just doing what’s natural. But when you’ve really got to manage those tyres that’s when you get those big swings in performance and I think that’s what we saw last week in France.”

Williams reckons that “the rest of the weekend will probably be dominated by the weather," per team head of vehicle performance, Dave Robson. Wet weather offers the backmarker squads the chance to grab big results if things work out, even if it means Russell not being able to deploy his apparently enhanced tyre management skills in the dry. But there is also some debate about how the weather will ultimately turn out this weekend, as FP2 was supposed to be severely impacted by thunderstorms…

Nevertheless, Mercedes estimates that there is a 40% chance that rain, although not thunderstorms, will feature on Saturday and 50% on Sunday. If that does come to pass, then it will add yet another intriguing dimension to the latest engagement of F1 2021’s finely-poised title fight.

Right now at F1’s second Styrian GP, it appears the championship is set for another very close contest come Sunday.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB16B

Photo by: Zak Mauger / Motorsport Images