The Brazilian GP preview

For several races in the run-up to the Korean Grand Prix, Red Bull Racing could see a red dot in its mirrors growing ever-larger. Since the Italian Grand Prix, Fernando Alonso has been utterly relentless, turning in inch-perfect performances to give himself an 11-point championship lead and a great chance of winning a world title that seemed lost to him only a few months ago. At Interlagos, the arena where he was crowned in 2005 and '06, he has the chance to bring this most remarkable of title fights to an early close.

The Spaniard will continue his run of form in Brazil, make no mistake about that. Occasionally he makes errors when his interest level drops - as we saw at times during his second Renault stint and when things were going awry earlier this year - but with a sniff of the title he will deliver lap after lap. Though he has one serious disadvantage - the Red Bull has generally been the fastest thing in town this year and there's no reason to expect that to change in Brazil.

The equation is simple for Red Bull. On paper, the RB6 should allow Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel to lock out the front row for a third consecutive race. If they do that, their destiny is in their own hands. For Webber, it's even more explicit - win in Brazil and Abu Dhabi and the world championship is his.

So how should Red Bull play it? The knee-jerk reaction is to say that of course they should back Webber. Vettel is 25 points off Alonso after his engine disaster in Korea, yet team principal Christian Horner remains committed to equal status. And there is something to say for that approach.

Ideally, both would head to Abu Dhabi still in the hunt to ensure that Red Bull has two bullets in the chamber rather than one - but what happens if Vettel relinquishes victory to Webber and then loses the championship in Abu Dhabi by a few points? Tricky.

You can believe that Red Bull will proceed as normal until the race, when some deft calculator work as the race situation evolves will dictate whether Vettel is allowed to keep his hopes alive or play Webber's wingman. Most critical of all is that they must not be allowed to trip over each other a la Istanbul - and to prevent that both must be told in no uncertain terms exactly what will be expected of them in any given situation.

McLaren remains in the hunt, with Lewis Hamilton only 21 points down. It sounds a lot, but in old money you are talking nine or so points. More problematic is the fact that the McLaren certainly doesn't have Red Bull's pace and has not matched Ferrari's speed in the past few races either.

The team will throw the kitchen sink at its upgrades for Brazil, but as well as winning the drivers' crown, don't underestimate the team's desperation to win a constructors' title that has eluded it for 12 years. That will prevent them from unleashing Hamilton into a do-or-die weekend.

As for Jenson Button, only a freak set of circumstances will allow him to get back into contention and he will surely be cast as a support act - but always bear in mind that if there is the kind of wet weather and carnage that some forecast for Brazil, he might be just the driver to exploit the situation (his poor performance in Korea, where brake locking problems sent his race into a downward spiral, notwithstanding).

Then there are the wildcards, the drivers who can spoil the symmetry for the title-chasers. Robert Kubica's Renault should fly at Interlagos, a track where, as ever, the Pole is very fast, while Nico Rosberg showed in Korea that Mercedes is back on the up by passing Hamilton before being wiped out by Webber's Red Bull.

Then comes the most interesting outsider - Felipe Massa. An Interlagos specialist who has won his home grand prix twice and given up a third victory in the interests of Kimi Raikkonen's title hopes in 2007, this is his moment. If he hits form, he can be of huge help to Alonso and the backing of the home crowd could give him the boost he needs to get back to his 2008-specification best.

While all of these permutations shake out, Alonso will carry on, hitting every apex, making no mistakes, lap after lap extracting the maximum out of his Ferrari.

He might not have a Red Bull-beater, but maybe he has the beating of Red Bull.

Weather

*The score is calculated by each driver's position (1st = 1 point, 24 for a DNF and 25 if not present). Lowest score wins.

2006: Alonso's second crown, Schumacher's first swansong

Fernando Alonso headed into the 2006 Brazilian Grand Prix with his second world championship all but secured. But despite his 10-point lead, he knew that arch-rival Michael Schumacher could steal the crown with a win.

In the end, Alonso did more than enough, finishing second from fifth on the grid. But for Schumacher it was a dramatic afternoon's racing, for while team-mate Felipe Massa charged serenely to his first home grand prix victory, the retiring seven-time world champion was in the wars.

From 10th on the grid, Schumacher started to climb the order but had his left-rear tyre cut by Giancarlo Fisichella's front wing. After completing a whole lap with a puncture, he made it to the pits and re-emerged almost a lap behind race leader Massa.

From there, he put on a stunning charge. Aided by Bridgestone rubber that allowed even Super Aguri drivers Takuma Sato and Sakon Yamamoto to set fastest laps among the 10 best of the race, he climbed to fourth by the finish, less than 25 seconds off the lead. With a few more laps, he would have been second, with Alonso only six seconds up the road.

"I would have loved to be on the podium in my last race," said Schumacher. "But it wasn't to be with the way the race went." Seemingly happy with bowing out, he added: "I certainly have no plans to change my retirement."

Fast forward four years and he is preparing to take to the track at Interlagos once again.

From the forum

"I doubt Alonso will win this one, unless Ferrari is clearly superior. He will settle for whatever position is safe enough at the top, with zero strategy risk. So Button may stop late and spoil the party, etc. Massa will take all the risk on this one too, specially at the start. If Alonso can go to the last race needing 4th, he will be very happy. Let the Red Bulls and Hamilton fight. "
4L3X

"I am very interested to see how Alonso approaches this race. Any bit of nerves and he will be qualifying 5th and in trouble. Red Bull pole without doubt, front row in fact, unless Ferrari or Hamilton pull out a massive lap. One thing about qualifying on the super-soft tyre is it means there is more chance of someone pulling out a monster lap, if they get the most out of the tyre. See Webber in Monaco, or Hamilton in Canada. You can really attack with these tyres, I think. "
Grundle

"Webber, Hamilton and Vettel will have an enormous pressure there. They can't let Alonso win as he'd have it pretty much in pocket. So they not only have to finish the race but also to finish ahead of Alonso or else it will be almost over for them. Giant pressure if you ask me. Will they be able to handle it? We'll see... but it will be hard for them."
AvantiFer