The bigger picture influencing the F1 driver market

An unusually hectic Formula 1 silly season has been dominated by one recurring theme: the relationships between teams and their junior drivers, and how they can both help and hinder career progression.

In one way or another nearly every development we've seen has been connected to a driver programme, and it's all tied to the bigger picture of collaborations between teams.

On the plus side we've seen several drivers moving up the ranks as a direct result of long-time support from a team paying off as planned.

On the other hand we've seen drivers stuck because they're attached to a team that can't offer them a seat, while at the same time those links make them unattractive to rivals.

For obvious reasons teams don't want to invest in developing a driver who ultimately 'belongs' to someone else and will go back there on request. On top of that, deep-seated on- and off-track rivalries mean that certain parties will simply never work together, on drivers or any other business.

That's the conundrum faced by Mercedes F1 boss Toto Wolff as he tries to find 2019 seats for Esteban Ocon and F2 championship leader George Russell.

McLaren boss Zak Brown, who in recent weeks has found himself on both sides of the story, sums the situation up perfectly.

"You have Red Bull with two teams and a junior programme," he notes. "And they don't have any junior drivers [eligible for Toro Rosso in 2019]. Then you've got Mercedes who have too many drivers. And something is wrong there.

"In theory those drivers should slide into the Toro Rosso seats. The seats are available, but because of politics, governance, and the way the sport is, people don't want to do business with each other."

We've seen some good examples of junior programmes working to plan, with Pierre Gasly moving up from Toro Rosso to Red Bull and McLaren taking the bold step of promoting Lando Norris from F2 - albeit at the expense of its previous protege, Stoffel Vandoorne.

We're also expecting to hear soon that Charles Leclerc is moving from Sauber to Ferrari, becoming only the second Maranello junior to make such a leap, following in the footsteps of Felipe Massa. His departure from the Hinwil team in turn opens up a race seat for Ferrari's other coming man, Antonio Giovinazzi.

"With Esteban it looked like we had a deal with Renault, and within 48 hours things changed" Toto Wolff on Ocon's future

In each case the junior programme is doing what it's supposed to, supplying the parent team concerned with ready-made talent.

The challenge is always one of timing, and circumstances have played a part. Had Daniel Ricciardo not decided to go to Renault there would have been no immediate chance for Gasly to step up, and had Fernando Alonso not opted out of F1, there would be no seat at McLaren for Norris.

The only case where the team has proactively booted out the incumbent to make way for the young guy is Ferrari, assuming Raikkonen's departure is confirmed.

But if there's no space, what do you do with your proteges?

Wolff has access to rare talent in Ocon and Russell - while not forgetting Pascal Wehrlein, whose time has probably passed in F1. However, with Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas signed up for 2019, he has no works seats to offer them. The only option is to place them elsewhere so they can continue their learning curves.

Ocon is currently in the second year of his secondment to Force India, a rare arrangement - along with that of Red Bull's Carlos Sainz Jr at Renault - where it works for all parties for a driver to be loaned out.

Knowing that under its new owners Force India was heading for a Lance Stroll/Sergio Perez line-up in 2019, Wolff long ago started looking for alternative options for Ocon.

He thought he had a deal at Renault. The French manufacturer is more open-minded than others about taking someone else's driver, having already had Sainz on loan. It had doubts about doing it again with Ocon, but his obvious talent and handy French passport appealed. The contract was about to be formally signed off when everything changed after Ricciardo made himself available.

"With Esteban it looked like we had a deal with Renault," Wolff explained at Monza last weekend. "And within 48 hours things changed, and agreements were suddenly not agreements any more. But I can understand the rationale of Renault getting Ricciardo on board. It is just the way things panned out that is not ideal for Esteban."

There was no way back into Force India. Talks with McLaren, abandoned when the Renault deal was on, were rekindled.

Brown gave serious consideration to Ocon joining Sainz - who in an unusual example of a driver escaping contractual ties become a free agent as soon as Gasly signed, and Red Bull had no seat for him at its top team.

But how could Brown justify taking Ocon when he had a brilliant young driver of his own - one who could walk away if he wasn't guaranteed a 2019 race seat? He also had nowhere else to place Norris to gain experience without losing him, so in the end he duly opted to promote him, closing another door to Ocon.

Williams is one of the few still in theory open for Ocon, or indeed Russell (pictured with Wolff), and the customer relationship with Mercedes makes it an obvious possibility.

However, it's a simple matter of economics. The discount Wolff can give on an engine supply is a relatively modest amount, certainly compared with what a pukka pay driver can bring.

We learned that when Manor first agreed a Mercedes supply deal, and it seemed like a logical home for Wehrlein or Ocon. However, Wolff explained that the team could sell its seats for a lot more than the discount he could offer as engine supplier.

In the end there were no big-paying drivers and both Wehrlein and Ocon did go there, and Manor served as a useful training ground, just as Minardi did for the likes of Alonso or Mark Webber in the past. But without significant driver income, Manor went bust...

"It seems to be almost an anchor being a Mercedes driver. Being on a recall mechanism isn't attractive to a vast majority of teams" Christian Horner

Taking Ocon with a modest financial package worked for Force India in terms of on-track performance, but as recent developments suggest, perhaps not commercially. And that's why Williams is reluctant to accept Ocon or Russell for 2019 - in its current situation the Grove team has to maximise driver income, and that means it needs two mega deals like those it currently has with Stroll and Sergey Sirotkin.

Meanwhile an unusual lack of qualified in-house talent has led Red Bull to look outside its own programme and give serious consideration to drivers who had done their learning elsewhere. It showed serious interest in Norris, and was prepared to wait for him to become a free agent, if McLaren had decided not to promote him.

However, as Helmut Marko made clear at Monza, there are limits: "We are not keen to take a Mercedes driver..."

Red Bull team boss Christian Horner says it should be no surprise that teams don't want to run someone who is tied to a major rival.

"For what is relatively little investment by Mercedes it's been to their merit that they've helped these guys to get into F1," he says. "But now it seems to be almost an anchor being a Mercedes driver. Being on a recall mechanism isn't attractive to a vast majority of teams.

"The crazy situation is you've got a driver like Ocon who might end up without a seat next year. If he was to be contractually free he'd be an obvious candidate for Toro Rosso. But Red Bull aren't going to invest in a Mercedes driver, understandably. And I wouldn't expect the same to happen the other way round."

Mercedes could have addressed the problem by putting Ocon into a works race seat next year - and it had the opportunity to do that, and not extend its deal with Valtteri Bottas. But faced with a tricky three-into-two scenario, it chose not to.

"It's very easy to go with something known," says Horner. "And there's far more perceived risk in taking an unknown quantity or a junior, and I think we've demonstrated on numerous occasions that it pays off.

"We've had a very successful junior programme, and Red Bull has a junior team, and has invested in that. It's paid dividends with Seb, Daniel and Max, and we'll see with Pierre Gasly. And it's given numerous others opportunities, such as Carlos Sainz."

Wolff admits that, notwithstanding Leclerc's expected promotion to Ferrari, F1's two major players have been cautious.

"The big teams are not going to take risks with young drivers," he says. "Now you can say that is boring. I think it is boring. We should take risks, we should put 18- or 19-year-old top talents in a top car and give them a chance.

"But the problem is that if you lose a drivers' championship or a constructors' championship because they are on a learning curve, that is obviously not great. We have not done it and Ferrari have not done it in the past. So we need to question it."

Another option is a full-on junior team, which is what Red Bull has with Toro Rosso. The idea has been considered at Mercedes - at one stage it was a possible route for Force India - but to Wolff, it makes no financial sense. It's worth noting that Toro Rosso costs Red Bull more to operate than Red Bull Racing, essentially because it earns less from FOM and attracts less sponsorship.

"If our support works until F1 but then it is detrimental for these guys having the right seats, you need to consider these things" Toto Wolff

"Funding a junior team is not an option because putting $80million, $90m, $100m every year in a junior team just to give your young drivers a place is not what I would want to do," says Wolff. "And on the other side, if the drivers are stigmatised as Mercedes drivers, then it seems to be not the best selling proposition.

"I would have a simple solution. Give us a third car. Make it mandatory to put a young driver in there with maximum two years in that car.

"The costs wouldn't be huge, the grid would be packed and we would have fantastic shows of new kids on the block coming up and fighting hard with the Valtteris and Lewises of this world, and surprising us. But owning another team just to find a place for your young drivers doesn't make sense for us."

The third-car idea has been around the block a few times, and it's long been a back-up plan should several teams close and the grid shrinks. But there are complex practical considerations, not to mention opposition from midfield teams who have no desire to find themselves fighting for scraps behind three Mercedes, three Ferraris and three Red Bulls.

"It's an interesting one," says Horner. "But the practicalities of running three-car teams - there's things like pitstops - it's a very complicated thing to do. Interesting on concept, but once you get into the practicalities of it, it's very, very complex. I can't see the midfield being particularly happy with it."

Brown adds: "I like the idea of third cars, but how do you manage that? I think there's room on the grid, but not for everyone to have one. Maybe you have them at certain races, but it's got to be equal and fair."

There's one simple solution that could fast-track Ocon to a seat - he could be let out of his contract and be free to go wherever, with no future ties back to Mercedes.

Wolff admits that it's something he may have to give consideration to, although it's hard to see him letting go of a man who is surely destined to drive a Silver Arrow at some stage.

"Fundamentally why we do this is we take great enjoyment in helping young talent that lacks finances," says Wolff. "And when we took Esteban from Gravity [his past management company] or Pascal in Formula ADAC, we felt these guys needed support. But if our support works until F1 but then it is detrimental for these guys having the right seats, you need to consider these things.

"And then think what does it mean to be a Mercedes driver? At the moment, if you are driving for another team you are driving for another team, and Esteban is not going to take any shit from me if he is driving Renault, McLaren or Williams, contrary to what has been said. So the whole system needs to be scrutinised in my opinion.

"My long-term perspective for him is still very optimistic. He can drive and he has a great personality and eventually he is going to be in a car that can win races and maybe a championship."