Should McLaren keep Button?

He's been here before of course, but it will still probably be a few more months yet before Jenson Button starts feeling an overwhelming sense of deja vu.

The 2009 Formula 1 world champion spent most of the second half of the '14 season answering repeated questions about his future with McLaren, while he waited to learn whether he would get the chance to extend his long and illustrious F1 career.

He needed the team to offer him a fresh deal if he was to remain in F1 for a 16th season. McLaren dithered, as it agonised over whether wily veteran Button or rapid rookie Kevin Magnussen should partner returning multi-million dollar superstar signing Fernando Alonso in the renewed Honda-engined dream team.

Magnussen thought he'd done enough to get the drive, but in the end McLaren plumped for Button. Certain members of the McLaren hierarchy reckoned Button was a better fit - a popular Brit with world championship-winning pedigree.

In performance terms (though not looking long-term of course, given he's in his mid-thirties), Button was also narrowly the better bet. He won the intra-team qualifying battle 10-9 (though McLaren's internal analysis reckoned Magnussen was perhaps fractionally faster overall), and scored more than twice Magnussen's number of points in the championship. It was certainly a close call, but probably just about the correct one on balance.

McLaren took its time choosing between Magnussen and Button © LAT

McLaren chairman Ron Dennis spoke at the time of last December's announcement of 'multi-year' contracts. In fact McLaren offered Button a guaranteed deal for 2015 with an option - on the team's side - to retain his services for a further season. Now Button is again waiting, to see if McLaren will exercise that option.

The team's racing director, Eric Boullier, said during the recent Italian Grand Prix that McLaren "intends" to retain Button alongside Alonso for 2016, while Button said after the race that he hoped his future could be resolved "over the next few weeks".

He finds himself in a similar situation to the one Kimi Raikkonen faced earlier this year, before Ferrari elected to end the speculation surrounding Valtteri Bottas by exercising its option to retain the 2007 world champion for one more year alongside Sebastian Vettel.

Raikkonen spoke several times about the fact the decision was not in his hands. He was simply waiting to see whether the Scuderia would stick with the driver it knew, or take a twist on a fresh new talent for the future. The Scuderia eventually decided its hand was a little too close to 'blackjack' for comfort...

McLaren actually has two exciting 'twist' options waiting within the wings of its Woking headquarters. Magnussen has stayed on as McLaren-Honda's reserve driver this year, in hope of earning a recall to the race team, while 23-year-old Belgian Stoffel Vandoorne (just over six months Magnussen's senior) is obliterating the opposition in his second season of GP2, and is undoubtedly ready to graduate to F1 next year.

Ferrari has Esteban Gutierrez, Jean-Eric Vergne and Rafaelle Marciello on its books, but can farm that young talent out to customer teams such as Sauber and Haas. As yet Honda has no customer outfits in F1, so McLaren has fewer options. Last year, two into one would not go; this time, three into one naturally stands even less chance!

Vandoorne's performances give McLaren two alternatives to Button © LAT

Magnussen may yet make McLaren's decision a little easier. The Dane is touting himself as a serious contender for Haas F1, should the incoming American team decide one Ferrari reserve is plenty enough, while McLaren has already suggested it wouldn't stand in Magnussen's way should he decide his future lies elsewhere.

That would at least boil things down to a straight fight between sticking with the wizened savvy of Button (understood to be McLaren's preferred option) or taking a punt on the exciting (but as yet unproven) talent of Vandoorne.

So, should McLaren go with what it knows? Has Button done enough in his first season paired alongside double world champion Alonso to earn a stay of execution? Or is it time McLaren backed the strength of its young driver programme (a la Red Bull) and again took a chance on youth?

Alonso is generally considered one of, if not the best in the business right now. He's never been outscored by a team-mate over a full season together, and utterly destroyed Raikkonen during his final campaign with Ferrari in 2014, when Alonso claims he reached his "best level" of driving. So it's probably fair to assume Alonso is probably still at or near the top of his own game.

In qualifying terms, Button has compared very favourably to Alonso. Of the nine races from which it is possible to make a fair judgement (the Australian GP is ignored because Alonso was absent injured, while Bahrain and Spain are also discounted on account of Button's failure to participate in qualifying due to reliability problems), Button is currently 5-4 up in the intra-team contest, and cumulatively 0.242 per cent quicker than his Spanish team-mate. So in terms of pure pace, McLaren has absolutely no reason to ditch Button just yet.

Button's speed has compared well to that of Alonso © LAT

Race form has been a little more one-sided, though the fact McLaren has generally been uncompetitive and sometimes placed its drivers on alternate strategies makes comparison less straightforward.

Admittedly the sample set is also a little smaller (Button failed to start in Bahrain, Raikkonen accidentally took Alonso out on lap one in Austria, Alonso inadvertently took out Button in Britain, and Button was hampered by an ERS deployment problem in Belgium), but only once has Button genuinely outshone Alonso in the other seven races they've contested as team-mates.

That performance came in Monaco, where Button scored McLaren-Honda's first points of the season for eighth place. The Brit was quicker in qualifying, and was over 14 seconds up the road when Alonso's gearbox overheated and shut down. On average, Button was around 0.375s per lap quicker during that race.

Otherwise Alonso has pretty much always, to a greater or lesser extent, been the stronger driver on Sundays - either to the flag, or until the many occasions when one or both the McLarens have retired with mechanical problems. But it's usually been a close-run thing. Apart from Spain (0.480s per lap) - where Button struggled badly with oversteer - and Hungary (0.261s per lap) Alonso has only been a tenth of a second per lap or less faster on average than Button over the race distances they've both covered.

Magnussen now admits he underestimated Button in 2014, and that the Brit is a much faster and better driver than he previously thought. Alonso, who is locked into a firm three-year contract with McLaren, has recently spoken of Button being "quite good all season", and that it would be a "good thing" for the team to retain him.

Nevertheless, the data suggests Button will probably need to produce a few more Monacos over the last part of the season to guarantee his retention. But perhaps it won't matter. Vettel has comfortably shaded Raikkonen this year, yet Ferrari decided to retain the Finn. Vettel was vocally supportive of that choice, while Ferrari emphasised the importance of stability as it continues its fightback to the front of the grid. That's why it eventually stuck with its hand, rather than 'gambling' on a young hotshot.

McLaren may well decide the opposite. Who knows? But the current signs suggest Button will get the chance to remain an F1 driver for a further season. Whatever happens, hopefully this time he won't have to wait until December to learn his fate, thus avoiding that impending sense of deja vu.