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Feature

Ranking the F1 teams at the summer break

As Formula 1 enjoys its traditional summer break before reconvening in Belgium at the end of August, our technical expert digs deep to work out who is starring and who is struggling

The major change in technical regulations for this season was always going to test the teams' engineering structures in terms of how they deal with change, rather than just working on the optimisation of a theme. After the first half of the season, a picture is starting to emerge.

Performance of some of the teams seems to be more circuit-specific than it has been in the past. I think this is down to everyone finding their feet in terms of what aerodynamic efficiency levels to accept for the new regulations.

Lots more downforce is available from the front wing, bargeboard, underfloor and larger rear wing areas, but the wider tyres increase the car's overall drag levels. The big question is what drag level is acceptable when signing off aerodynamic components.

This quandary, combined with larger and theoretically grippier tyres means the goalposts of what was acceptable in 2016 have changed. The tyres themselves appear to be more durable than they were last year, although I'm not sure the grip increase that should have come with tyres around 25% wider has actually been delivered.

This will wash itself out by 2018, but for the rest of this season it's going to be the teams who can develop best in the areas they have a deficit that will benefit the most.

For example, as far as out-and-out performance is concerned, Ferrari was blown away by Mercedes at Silverstone - a fast and reasonably high-downforce circuit. Mercedes was blown away by Ferrari in Monaco and Hungary, which are both slow, ultra-high-downforce circuits that require mechanical compliance and hence mechanical grip.

So, let's analyse the performance of the teams in 2017 so far. To do this I've converted each team's fastest individual lap time of a race weekend into a percentage of the single quickest lap. This enables us to weight each of the races equally since the scale is the same.

How the 2017 F1 field stacks up

Measuring the outright pace of each car so far this season

This gives us a performance number for each team, but we also need to dig deep into where and why certain cars have performed well and badly.

We'll also look at which driver for the team has been ahead most times on pure pace (based on fastest individual lap of the weekend rather than only qualifying) and ahead in the race more often (only counting those in which neither driver had a serious problem). Each driver's points haul as a percentage of the maximum is also looked at.

The teams are listed in pace order, rather than championship order.

The lead battle

Comparing the pace of Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull

Click on the labels above to add or remove teams

1 Mercedes - 100.043%

Change from 2016: 0.032% loss

Points: 357

Pure pace: Hamilton 6-5 Bottas

Race: Hamilton 6-5 Bottas

Points: Hamilton 188-169 Bottas

Points share: Hamilton 53%-47% Bottas

Mercedes has lost a tiny amount, but in general it has done a great job of adapting to the 2017 regulations. The car, which has a longer wheelbase than its rivals and a package that has a little more power than its immediate competitors do, is especially suited to the fast, flowing tracks. There are more of those in any given season than slow tracks.

Mercedes has had to bite the bullet and accept second best on a few occasions, notably in Monaco and Hungary, but in general its performance this year, and over the three preceeding seasons, has been exceptional.

Mercedes is a true two-car team and either of drivers is there to pick up the pieces in qualifying or the race if the other one has a bad day at the office.

Developments for the upcoming races will be vitally important, but I will stick my neck out and say Mercedes is the team for the drivers' and constructors' championships.

2 Ferrari - 100.308%

Change from 2016: 0.569% gain

Points: 318

Pure pace: Vettel 8-3 Raikkonen

Race: Vettel 9-1 Raikkonen

Points: Vettel 202-116 Raikkonen

Points share: Vettel 64%-36% Raikkonen

Ferrari has taken a major step forward for 2017 and joined the fight at the front. But is it enough?

Its car concept, with short sidepods, increases the bargeboard area and allows more room for the front-tyre turbulence to be managed in a more positive way. When you do this, developments hinge on your own understanding of the airflow in this area and having a look at what others are up to is a bit of a waste of time.

Ferrari needs a bit more overall aerodynamic efficiency for the fast, flowing circuits, and with that a bit more grunt from the engine wouldn't go amiss. Everyone wants the same thing, but if Ferrari really is to take the fight to Mercedes over the second half of the season it's needed quickly.

As the numbers above show, on average out-and-out performance, Ferrari is still behind Mercedes by a significant amount.

Also, the difference between its drivers' performance is significant. If the car is not best suited for a given circuit, Raikkonen seems to struggle more than Vettel and in the race Vettel has the pace to mix it with the best. Yes, Ferrari has not been totally fair with Raikkonen, but even if it had then Vettel would still come out on top.

Ferrari gets a huge loyalty payment from F1, so in reality the constructors' title doesn't matter as much to it financially as it does to the others. It's a team that thrives on drivers' championships, and that is what Ferrari wants out of 2017. But I'm not so sure Ferrari will get it.

3 Red Bull - 101.179%

Change from 2016: 0.326% loss

Points: 184

Pure pace: Ricciardo 4-7 Verstappen

Races: Ricciardo 1-2 Verstappen

Points: Ricciardo 117-67 Verstappen

Points share: Ricciardo 64%-36% Verstappen

With major aerodynamic changes for 2017, a lot was expected from Red Bull and design guru Adrian Newey. But Red Bull wasn't really there at the start of the season and was under more pressure to hold on to 'best of the rest' than to fight at the front.

During pre-season testing in Spain, I said the car lacked the 'wow' factor. None of the bits were exciting, sophisticated or innovative, but as the season has progressed the car has found its wings (no pun intended).

At the start of the season, Red Bull claimed it had gone for lower downforce and maximum efficiency. But when it realised this was the wrong direction, it started adding bits to increase downforce. More of that gets the tyres working better, and since they're the bits that connect the car to the ground, if you get more from them you will go faster.

Red Bull needs to maintain this trend and, instead of hammering Renault constantly, needs to work with it to get the best from the whole package. Sometimes Red Bull seems surprised by how good the car is and other times by how bad it is. This doesn't bode well when trying to define development direction.

Red Bull has a strong driver pairing. Verstappen has that little bit more speed but Ricciardo is a strong and consistent racer.

Eight retirements is an abysmal record for any team, let alone one that wants to challenge for the championship. So its development direction needs to be focused on this area as well as finding more speed.

The rest

The fluctuating pace of the midfield teams in 2017

Click on the labels above to add or remove teams

4 Renault - 102.353%

Change from 2016: 0.855% gain

Points: 26

Pure pace: Hulkenberg 11-0 Palmer

Races: Hulkenberg 4-2 Palmer

Points: Hulkenberg 26-0 Palmer

Points share: Hulkenberg 100%-0% Palmer

Renault has been on a team-building exercise since buying Enstone back from Genii Capital, and last year was never going to be easy. That means this season could only be better, and although it didn't start so well there are now signs of improvement.

Renault's performance in the past couple of races has been impressive, and it has its sights set on fifth in the constructors' championship. This is achievable, since it is only 15 points behind Williams, but it will need to bring some positive developments to the car and hope Williams, Toro Rosso and Haas flounder.

When I had a close look at the car at Silverstone, it seemed to me that Renault was an underfunded team. Everything just looked a bit tatty, repaired and touched up. Hopefully that was just a bad impression that I got, because Formula 1 needs more teams challenging at the front, and as a works team that is where Renault needs to set its sights.

In Nico Hulkenberg, it has one of the best drivers in the pitlane. To this day I have no idea why he is not in a top team. But that said, it means that looking at the numbers above Renault is a one-car team.

Yes, Palmer has had a nightmare so far as race results are concerned, but if you have the talent it will show up somewhere over the season in pure pace.

5 Force India - 102.402%

Change from 2016: 0.683% loss

Points: 101

Pure pace: Perez 9-2 Ocon

Races: Perez 8-2 Ocon

Points: Perez 56-45 Ocon

Points share: Perez 55%-45% Ocon

Finishing fourth last year was a great effort from this small privateer team, which has a great group of people from the engineers through to the cleaners. It gets more from less.

Hanging on to fourth was never going to be easy, but Force India is relatively comfortable in that position and has a few more points compared with this point in 2016. It won't be easy to stay there, but a little more out-and-out speed should allow it to continue to build a cushion if it can qualify better than the others.

The car isn't always as quick as its championship position indicates, but the team is strong and consistent on race day - even if its two drivers have done their best to throw away points on a few occasions.

Ocon and Perez are well-matched, but the Mexican just comes out on top with his experience. But they need their heads banged together and realise the team is bigger than both of them. Each driver needs to respect the other while entrusted with Force India's cars.

6 Williams - 102.531%

Change from 2016: 0.822% loss

Points: 41

Pure pace: Massa 9-1 Stroll

Races: Massa 5-0 Stroll

Points: Massa 23-18 Stroll

Points share: Massa 56%-44% Stroll

Williams was a pole position and race-win challenger to Mercedes in 2014, so its slide downwards has been hard to believe. The car has never really worked on slow or low-grip circuits, but back in '14 its fast-circuit performance compensated for that.

I often say you need to understand where your problems are before you can fix them, but Williams seems to have kept developing in the same conceptual direction blindly and retained, or even made worse, the poor slow and low-grip performance. At the same time, its fast circuit performance seems to be being lost.

Something is fundamentally wrong with its engineering understanding and direction, and this will give new chief technical officer Paddy Lowe something to get his teeth into.

For this season, Williams needs to identify what is wrong quickly and put developments in place to reduce the risk of Toro Rosso and maybe even Renault leapfrogging ahead. If Williams can do this, it will learn a lot for 2018.

Driver-wise, Massa is as always doing a strong job, and Williams knew what it was getting into when Stroll came on board. He is doing a reasonable job and has brought Williams its only podium finish of 2017, so there is potential for the future but drivers need a better car before they can show their true talent.

7 Toro Rosso - 102.625%

Change from 2016: 0.425% loss

Points: 39

Pure speed: Sainz 7-4 Kvyat

Races: Sainz 5-0 Kvyat

Points: Sainz 35-4 Kvyat

Points share: Sainz 90%-10% Kvyat

This year has been a bit of a struggle for Toro Rosso. Carlos Sainz Jr has finished in the points seven times - every race he's seen the chequered flag in. Kvyat has only got points on two occasions, both ninth places, so not really big points-paying finishes.

Normally Toro Rosso is very consistent, but this year seems to be more of a challenge than in the past. The car looks OK, but it seems pretty difficult to extract the full performance from.

The drivers could do with learning that a team expects them to respect each other on and off the track. Just as with the Force india drivers, banging their heads together wouldn't do any harm.

Toro Rosso isn't far behind Williams, but it also needs to keep an eye out for Renault. Points are available to Toro Rosso in most races, but it's too close to being a one-car team - as the numbers show.

8 Haas - 102.657%

Change from 2016: 0.063% gain

Points: 29

Pure speed: Grosjean 7-4 Magnussen

Races: 3-3 Magnussen

Points: Grosjean 18-11 Magnussen

Points share: Grosjean 62%-38% Magnussen

Usually a team drops away in its second year because for the first season it has the unfamiliar challenge of having to race the current car and design a new one at the same time. Haas has proved it has the infrastructure to cope with this.

Haas is close to standing still, but that can be looked at in two ways. It's either disappointing, or encouraging for the future. I'd go with the latter, because the team has had to deal with the 2017 regulation changes as well, so to do that while standing still is a great achievement. Other than Ferrari and Renault, who both underachieved in '16, all the others have fallen away.

One of the biggest problems has been the brakes, as we hear fairly often on Grosjean's radio. It's time Haas was on top of this, and if that happens the points tally would benefit.

Haas has a good driver pairing, but a little more professionalism wouldn't hurt and would put the team in a better position.

9 McLaren - 102.811%

Change from 2016: 0.594% loss

Points: 11

Pure speed: Alonso 11-0 Vandoorne

Races: Alonso 2-1 Vandoorne

Points: Alonso 10-1 Vandoorne

Points share: Alonso 91%-9% Vandoorne

McLaren and Honda were hoping to build on what had been, by their standards, a positive 2016. But they soon realised that they had slipped dramatically down the cliff face and that '17 was going to be even more challenging than the previous two seasons.

The car is a fairly decent package, but because of the lack of running - owing to reliability problems on both McLaren's and Honda's sides - optimising the set-up and evaluating the developments has been difficult.

Alonso is an old hand at driving an under-performing car. The off-track decisions he has made during his career have put him in that position on more than one occasion, but Vandoorne, being a new kid in town, has struggled with it because he had the frame of mind that every lap might just be the last lap. So initially he tended to overdrive the car.

The package has come on in leaps and bounds over the past couple of races, and in Hungary McLaren took its first double-points finish. The rest of the year is going to be as difficult as the first half, but at least reliability is improving and this will give the drivers the chance to show where the car is performance-wise. And it will allow McLaren to set its development direction for that last big push at Honda's home track, Suzuka.

10 Sauber - 104.060%

Change from 2016: 0.543% loss

Points: 5

Pure speed: Wehrlein 7-2 Ericsson

Races: Wehrlein 5-3 Ericsson

Points: Wehrlein 5-0 Ericsson

Share of points: Wehrlein 100%-0% Ericsson

Sauber has had a dismal season with a car that lacks grip, a performance deficit compounded by running a year-old Ferrari engine. It's seldom in the mix for anything other than propping up the back of the grid.

Staffing wise, Sauber needs to build in the areas it's currently weak in and it needs to keep developing. Since the regulations for next year are very similar to what we currently have, Sauber can carry that knowledge forward into next season.

Sauber has a good facility, and if it does become a Ferrari junior team then it will do a strong job. Ferrari isn't going want to invest in drivers that are no-hopers and is definitely not going to invest in a team without having a major say in how it is run.

The future could be bright for Sauber, but for now it needs to just bite the bullet and learn as much as possible in preparation for 2018.

Performance swing 2016/17

Who has gained (left) or lost ground (right) compared to last year

To come back to the original point of how teams have responded to the challenge of new regulations, it's the performance swing that tells us the most. I'm surprised that one of the smaller teams didn't luck in and get it right and Ferrari, Haas and Renault improved relative to the outright pace.

Some of the teams are close, but when Mercedes gets it right, I'm afraid it will have the upper hand. But with Hamilton and Vettel both winning four races so far, perhaps we will see a close battle to the end of the season. If Red Bull can improve on pace and reliability, it could emerge as the spoiler in the drivers' championship mix.

Roll on the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa, a real racers' track.

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