Is Red Bull really back in the game?

It's been a while since Red Bull looked this competitive heading in to the serious part of a Formula 1 weekend. The team that finished runner-up to Mercedes in last year's constructors' world championship has not really come close to being best-of-the-rest at any of the first nine grands prix of this season.

Of course Mercedes is down the road and far away, as it has been for most of 2015. Ferrari made a big gain with its engine for this year, and the SF15-T is undoubtedly a decent chassis, but it hasn't kept pace with Mercedes' rate of development, leaving the silver cars to dominate unless something untoward (like a fast start from a pair of Williams drivers at Silverstone) happens.

Both Red Bull drivers split Mercedes pairing Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg at the top of the Hungarian Grand Prix's Friday practice timesheet, suggesting this might be the first race of 2015 that the former world champion team can get back to the status it enjoyed at many races in 2014.

Ferrari has struggled to keep up with Mercedes in recent races © LAT

Red Bull's struggles with weak Renault engines have been well documented, and many felt last year's RB10 might have been a better chassis than the Mercedes W05, but for the substantial difference between the power units that propelled each of them.

So far in 2015, the RB11 has not looked a particularly strong car. Daniel Ricciardo has repeatedly expressed frustration with a machine that has lacked grip and balance at pretty much every circuit except Monte Carlo, where Red Bull was able to run maximum downforce without having to worry about top-speed consequences.

A breakthrough came last time out at Silverstone, where Red Bull introduced a new front wing concept to the RB11. There it was able to run with the Ferraris in the race, and team boss Christian Horner reckoned Daniil Kvyat was on for a podium but for a costly spin when the rain came. The Russian still finished sixth and came close to passing the Williams of Valtteri Bottas at the end too.

At the Hungaroring on Friday, Kvyat lapped within 0.351s of Lewis Hamilton's Mercedes, with Ricciardo just 0.151s further back in third. Rosberg admitted he found it tougher to balance his W06 on the knife-edge of grip in the searing Budapest heat, and he wound up well adrift in fourth.

Rosberg made a mistake on his second run with the soft tyre, having lapped a tenth faster in the first sector than his previous best, but given how fast Kvyat was in sectors one and two (in the latter he was faster than Hamilton) there's no guarantee Rosberg would have beaten the best of the Red Bulls even with a clean lap.

BEST LAPS BREAKDOWN

POS  DRIVER       S1       S2       S3     TIME
 1.  Hamilton   29.774s  30.502s  23.673s  1m23.949s
 2.  Kvyat      29.887s  30.367s  24.046s  1m24.300s
 3.  Ricciardo  29.779s  30.696s  23.976s  1m24.451s
 4.  Rosberg    30.033s  30.655s  23.980s  1m24.668s
 5.  Raikkonen  29.944s  31.050s  24.140s  1m25.134s
 6.  Sainz      30.179s  31.125s  24.295s  1m25.599s
 

Ferrari had a below par day, and Vettel admitted afterwards that the Scuderia has "lots to clean up". Raikkonen got more track time and - unlike Vettel - didn't have any spins, but the Finn was still way off Red Bull and Mercedes in the twisty middle sector, with no real advantage anywhere else.

Given the Prancing Horses were expected to find a faster gallop here, on a circuit shorn of the sort of high-speed sweeps they struggled with at Silverstone, Red Bull can't help but be pleased. The Milton Keynes squad's cars look genuinely fast, and Ricciardo (whose running was cut short by an engine failure) feels they can carry that form into qualifying.

"This track was always going to suit us more because it's less of a power circuit, but it [the upgraded car] seems to be working well," he said.

"It's quite a bumpy track, and in the past we haven't been the best over those bumps, but today it felt like the car went well. It felt good to be able to lean on it a little bit."

PACE RANKING
1. Mercedes (Hamilton) 1m23.949s
2. Red Bull (Kvyat) 1m24.300s
3. Ferrari (Raikkonen) 1m25.134s
4. Toro Rosso (Sainz) 1m25.599s
5. McLaren (Alonso) 1m25.752s
6. Williams (Bottas) 1m25.881s
7. Lotus (Maldonado) 1m26.090s
8. Sauber (Nasr) 1m26.379s
9. Manor (Merhi) 1m29.113s

Ricciardo's long run was on course to be even better than Kvyat's © LAT

The long-run pace is also very encouraging for Red Bull. Ricciardo joked on the radio that the spectacular failure of his Renault engine was because "I was driving too fast", but without that the Australian looked on course to be comfortably fastest of all over the higher-fuel runs that dominate the final segment of Friday practice.

The medium tyre wasn't working in the high heat, so only soft rubber running is counted in this analysis. Ricciardo's engine failure, which means he now only has one useful engine left in his 2015 rotation having been swapping between the fourth and fifth recently, meant his run was cut short after just four timed laps. All of those were timed to the same tenth, giving an average of 1m28.261s before he had to pull off the circuit.

We'll never know whether Ricciardo could have sustained that remarkable consistency had the engine held up, but even with a slight drop in pace over the next few hypothetical tours, he would have stacked up very well compared to his rivals.

LONG RUN AVERAGE PACE RANKING
(Based on a seven-lap stint)
1. Mercedes (Rosberg) 1m28.798s
2. Red Bull (Kvyat) 1m28.884s
3. Ferrari (Raikkonen) 1m29.150s
4. Toro Rosso (Sainz) 1m29.222s
5. Williams (Massa) 1m29.451s
6. Lotus (Grosjean) 1m30.203s
7. Sauber (Nasr) 1m30.369s
8. McLaren (Alonso) 1m30.486s
9. Manor (Stevens) 1m32.732s

Red Bull looks to be in its best form yet this season in terms of one-lap pace, and seriously quick over longer runs. The question mark, as ever, concerns how much extra speed Ferrari and Williams will find when they turn their engines up to 'qualifying mode' on Saturday, and whether Renault can give Red Bull enough of a step of its own to maintain an advantage.

According to Ricciardo: "We've a little bit more power at our disposal, and a little bit through the fuel as well, we're able to turn that up a bit.

"We're able to get one per cent, or something more, power out of it. Every little bit helps.

"I'm sure we're not half a second in front of Ferrari [in reality], but even if we're a tenth in front then I'll take that."

Toro Rosso should be capable of joining its senior team in the top 10 © LAT

So it seems we can expect the usual fight for pole between Hamilton and Rosberg, and then a tight battle for row two between Ferrari, Williams and Red Bull.

WHAT ABOUT THE REST?

As for the remaining two spots in the top-10 qualifying shootout, the Toro Rosso rookies should have enough to take them both, if Max Verstappen avoids a repeat of the electrical woe that cost him valuable track time on Friday.

McLaren will fancy its chances of running the Red Bull junior team close here, now that it can run its ERS at full power in qualifying and worry less about Honda's overall power deficit on a circuit that lacks long straights.

Romain Grosjean does not expect Lotus to fight for Q3 in Hungary, and the beleaguered Enstone team will again need to find a breakthrough with the set up of the E23 on Saturday to rescue what might otherwise turn out to be a trying weekend.

It's happened before this year, and if rivals underperform then Lotus could do better than expected. We know the car is always reasonable in race trim, whatever the Friday runs suggest.

The big unknown is Force India, which opted to sit out the second free practice session while it investigates the suspension failure that caused Sergio Perez to crash on Friday morning.

What we do know is Sauber faces an uphill battle to score points this weekend. Felipe Nasr's long run on Friday afternoon was decent, but the drivers are struggling to get the C34 stopped and rotated for the Hungaroring's short, sharp corners.

As in Monaco, expect both to drop out in Q1 along with the Manor Marussias. From there, the Swiss team will need some help to avoid going home pointless again.