Is Hamilton poised to end his Interlagos curse?

Lewis Hamilton has not won the Brazilian Grand Prix in 10 attempts, and has just one pole position to his name at Interlagos. It's the only track on the current calendar, barring new arrival Baku, where he hasn't tasted victory.

The question is, does that mean anything at all on what is another must-win weekend for Hamilton, or is it just a coincidence? After all, if he doesn't win, chances are Mercedes team-mate Nico Rosberg will. And if Rosberg wins, he's world champion.

Based on what we saw during Friday practice at Interlagos, there's not much for Hamilton to be worried about. Save, of course, for the fact that the gap from Mercedes to the rest suggests there less chance of any of its rivals getting involved in the battle for the top two positions.

Looking at raw pace, although practice one was the quicker session thanks to track temperatures rising significantly in the afternoon, the gap between the two Mercedes was just three hundredths.

That gap is of limited significance, especially as the track temperatures are expected to be far lower on Saturday, but it seems reasonable to assume that single-lap pace wise, Hamilton is at worst on the same level as Rosberg, if not a little higher.

That's no great surprise, given that in the last two seasons the advantages Rosberg has enjoyed on his way to pole position in qualifying have been just 0.033s (2014) and 0.078s ('15).

Car-wise, the gap of half a second from Hamilton to the best non-Mercedes, surprisingly the Williams-Mercedes of Valtteri Bottas, suggests nobody is going to get into that fight for pole position. So no surprises there.

SINGLE-LAP PACE (FP2)

1 Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m12.271s
2 Williams (Bottas), +0.490s
3 Red Bull (Ricciardo), +0.518s
4 Ferrari (Vettel), +0.731s
5 Force India (Hulkenberg), +1.028s
6 McLaren (Button), +1.169s
7 Toro Rosso (Kvyat), +1.418s
8 Haas (Grosjean), +1.803s
9 Renault (Magnussen), +1.838s
10 Sauber (Nasr), +2.038s
11 Manor (Ocon), +2.046s

Inevitably, single-lap pace in Friday practice is of limited value in drawing conclusions, although the fact that much of the order was two-by-two suggests there is at least something in it.

More significant is the long-run pace, and this will be of the most interest to Hamilton.

If you were to go looking for a reason why he has such an underwhelming record at Interlagos compared to other tracks, you might suggest that it's because this is a track where cars are set up with more understeer than usual to look after the rears thanks to there being a lot of lateral load. That works against Hamilton's naturally aggressive rear rotation on entry.

Given that the rear-right tyre tends to be the limiting factor in terms of thermal degradation at Interlagos, that could mean Hamilton struggles a little with tyre management. But given Hamilton also failed to win four times in the Bridgestone era, that is an unsatisfactory explanation.

Even if it is the case - and it is very much speculative - then the fact that track temperatures should be lower on Saturday is very good news for him. Doubly so, given Hamilton was the fastest on long-run pace already.

Based on eight laps on softs, Hamilton was 0.396s per lap faster than Rosberg. So in a very hypothetical race he's over three seconds up the road over those eight laps. All things being equal, that's pole position and, presuming a good start, no mistakes and a reliable car, a third win on the trot.

The long-run pace suggests Ferrari could pose a threat. Using average pace on soft-compound Pirellis over seven laps, Vettel was only 0.065s down, and Ferrari is certainly taking an aggressive approach to the weekend given it has so little to lose.

But experience suggests that's an illusion. After all, fuel loads remain opaque on Friday, and any conclusions drawn from such pace is very provisional indeed.

Red Bull, meanwhile, surely has more to come given the large gap to Mercedes. But there's no reason to expect it to be a serious threat.

LONG-RUN PACE

1. Mercedes (Hamilton), 1m16.039s
2. Ferrari (Vettel), +0.065s
3. Red Bull (Verstappen), +0.453s
4. Toro Rosso (Sainz), +0.900s
5. Force India (Hulkenberg), +0.928s
6. Williams (Massa), +1.212s
7. Renault (Magnussen), +1.555s
8. McLaren (Button), +2.003s*
9. Haas (Gutierrez) +2.282s
10. Sauber (Ericsson) +2.553s

*five-lap sample

This all means things are set up very nicely for Hamilton to take his first Interlagos win at the 11th attempt in Formula 1. Of course, that still requires him to deliver in qualifying, make a good start, not make any mistakes, have clean pitstops, not hit reliability problems...in fact, avoid the countless pitfalls that usually stop drivers winning grands prix.

And, naturally, he needs to maintain that edge on Rosberg, which is far from a foregone conclusion.

A straightforward race would probably be a two or three-stopper. But given the medium-compound Pirelli is capable of lasting over 30 laps already, it might be possible to do it on one.

More likely is a two-stopper. And there's no reason to suggest Hamilton wouldn't be able to control the race in that scenario - provided nothing goes wrong.

So what of the Interlagos curse? Well, if anything the fact this is an outlier in terms of his lack of success tends to suggest he's almost due a win.

In 2012, he might have won but for Nico Hulkenberg eliminating him while trying to take the lead. In '14, had a mis-set brake bias not led to him having an off while chasing down Rosberg, there's every chance he could have won.

Last year, a gearshift glitch cost him in qualifying and he had a chance to take the lead at the start - had things gone slightly differently, he might head into this race with three Interlagos wins in four years!

Looking earlier than that, title deciders have played their part. In 2007, Hamilton's race went wrong from the start with an off, then he dropped to the back with a gearbox glitch. In '08, McLaren's incredibly conservative strategy led to him only just taking the fifth place he needed to take the title.

Next time round, McLaren wasn't up to winning at Interlagos, and a year later he finished fourth in a car that wasn't as strong as the Red Bull or Fernando Alonso's Ferrari. The following year it's true Hamilton was a little slower than team-mate Jenson Button, but a gearbox problem put him out of a race dominated by Red Bull.

There's nothing in that record that, fundamentally, leads you to question Hamilton's ability to win at Interlagos. If anything, it's a reminder this is a track where strange things tend to happen, whether it's reliability problems, mistakes or unusual conditions.

And that might be Hamilton's biggest worry - that something unforeseen might happen to him. There's certainly a lot of gearbox problems in his history at Interlagos...

But given the championship situation, the risk of rain is something that could give Hamilton some real hope. While, in 2013, Rosberg showed well in the wet compared to Hamilton, since then he has struggled with the rear moving around in the damp. Some well-timed rain could work against Rosberg, which Hamilton would be delighted to see.

WHY THE HARD TYRE?

The decision to allocate the hard tyres for this race, rather than the super-softs, has led to some criticism of Pirelli.

Few hard tyres have been chosen by teams, and the race is set mainly to be contested using softs and mediums. But Pirelli insists it was a decision based on the experience of 2015.

"This circuit is quite severe, last year we had a three-stop race and the super-soft choice was too aggressive, so we decided for this race to nominate a harder compound," said Pirelli racing manager Mario Isola.

"In some races last year, we were quite aggressive with the compound selection, and that's why we have decided to go one step harder here.

"What we saw today is that we didn't have any big issues because there was no graining this morning. We had a little bit of blistering of the front right tyre on the soft compound, but the soft is quite an aggressive choice."

So whatever happens on Sunday, don't expect the hard tyres to play much of a part. That's one less variable for Hamilton to worry about as he bids to end his Interlagos curse.

Because no matter whether there's a real foundation for believing he has a fundamental weakness here, and there's little evidence of that, you never know how that might play on his mind...