How the Racing Bulls pendulum is swinging back towards Lawson

When job security is in short supply, there's one solution for an Formula 1 driver. Be so good they can't ignore you.

That's easier said than done, but it certainly seems to be what Liam Lawson has taken to heart as he battled for his future over the recent Americas triple-header. Having been an integral part of Racing Bulls' rise to fifth in the constructors' championship, which will be the Anglo-Italian team's best-ever result, Lawson took ninth in Austin before bagging a pair of seventh-place finishes in Mexico and Brazil.

Following his challenger Nikola Tsolov's strong FP1 debut in Mexico, and Lawson's unfortunate run-in with Red Bull's stalwart Max Verstappen, signs are now pointing towards the pendulum having swung back in Lawson's favour with a decision expected over the Las Vegas Grand Prix weekend next week. A report from The Race, which Autosport understands is accurate, says Lawson is now set to stay put after all with Tsolov coming on board as a reserve in 2027.  Sources have indicated a final decision is close but not signed off yet.

Driving for his future has been exhausting for Lawson, even if it's not a new situation for the 24-year-old. Ever since he arrived as a deputy for the injured Daniel Ricciardo in 2023, Lawson has effectively been fighting for his seat, first from the sidelines and then as Ricciardo's full-time replacement with little to no job security beyond the next race weekend.
 
It all came to a head over the past triple-header as Racing Bulls and the wider Red Bull organisation kept delaying a final call between Lawson and Tsolov.
 
If Racing Bulls had been a standalone team, the decision to retain Lawson and Arvid Lindblad would have been a no-brainer. Rookie Lindblad is still seen as potential Red Bull material in the future. And while that window appears to have come and gone for Lawson, he has amassed 89 points as the highest point scorer outside the top four teams.
 
With Racing Bulls tasked to train young drivers for the Red Bull senior team though, it is understood Red Bull's Austrian parent company is particularly excited by F2 frontrunner Tsolov's promise. However, a decision to keep Lawson wouldn't necessarily work against Racing Bull's objective, as having such a solid benchmark in the other car has been useful to gauge Lindblad's performances this year too. Meanwhile, 19-year-old Tsolov would still benefit from a full year as a reserve driver, which includes more FP1s, private testing and simulator work.

Liam Lawson, Racing Bulls

Photo by: Guido De Bortoli / LAT Images via Getty Images

Racing Bulls qualifying head-to-head

Arvid Lindblad	7-14 (6-11 without sprints)	Liam Lawson
9 (+1.253s in Q3)	Australia	8
15 (+0.334s in SQ2)	China (sprint)	13
15 (+0.019s in Q2)	China	14
10	Japan	14 (+0.386s in Q2)
16	Miami (sprint)	17 (+0.171s in SQ1)
17 (+0.538s in Q1)	Miami	12
9	Canada (sprint)	DNS
9	Canada	12 (+0.349s in Q2)
15 (+0.777s in Q2)	Monaco	10
11 (+0.255s in Q2)	Barcelona	8
10 (+0.052s in Q3)	Austria	9
10 (+0.440s in SQ3)	Britain (sprint)	9
9	Britain	10 (+0.411s in Q3)
8	Belgium	11 (+0.491s in Q2)
9	Hungary	11 (+0.405s in Q2)
15 (+0.246s in Q2)	Azerbaijan	12
16 (no time - grid penalty)	Bahrain in Malaysia	11
17 (+0.281s in SQ1)	Singapore (sprint)	8
10 (+0.412s in Q3)	Singapore	9
9	United States	10 (No lap time in Q3)
9 (+0.088s in Q3)	Mexico	8
14 (+4.638s in Q2 - rain)	Brazil	5

Racing Bulls has also been explicitly asked by Austria to stand on its own feet both in terms of identity and performance, so that's why a dyed-in-the-wool F1 veteran like team principal Alan Permane would have been keen to maximise performance and stick with Lawson.
 
"The main factors are, as always, pace and speed. That's the very first thing we look for," Permane said when grilled on the topic on Friday in Sao Paulo. "But we're not just a team that exists solely to compete. We are here to bring young talent through, so we have to keep an eye on that. And that doesn't necessarily mean that we just keep churning young talent through the car. We need to maybe have some experience as well to measure that talent."

The clearest hint that a difference in opinion between the various stakeholders is what has really been holding up the decision came from Lawson himself. "I feel like Alan's been extremely supportive to me and I appreciate that a lot," he said. "I've enjoyed working closely with him and with the team this year. Obviously, it's a big organisation so..."
 
Permane recently inked a fresh deal until 2031 as Racing Bulls team principal and co-CEO, so it's obvious that his opinion carries plenty of weight. And it would stand to reason that Permane has wanted some assurances about his share in the decision-making before committing.

"Alan is doing a tremendous job, and the progress the team has made is a direct reflection of his experience, commitment and competitive mindset," said Permane's boss Oliver Mintzlaff, CEO Corporate Projects and Investments Red Bull. "He brings clarity, composure, and a deep understanding of what it takes to perform in Formula 1, while creating an environment where people can consistently deliver at their best."

Meanwhile, fans of Lawson and the team have been flooding the squad's social media channels urging it to re-sign the Kiwi. He said: "I appreciate all the support. I've seen it over the last few weeks. It's honestly really nice to see.

A treacherous Brazil weekend was one of Liam Lawson's finest.

Photo by: Simon Galloway / LAT Images via Getty Images

"Obviously, I would love it if it was more from a team. But at the moment I'm just trying to enjoy driving the car because with everything else going on I don't really know what else I'm meant to do. I don't really know what else I'm meant to say to you guys. So, at the moment I'm just going to keep driving and see what happens."

When it mattered the most, Brazil was perhaps Lawson's finest weekend yet. In treacherous conditions, Lawson took fifth on the grid, starting from third after grid penalties for George Russell and Charles Leclerc. 

In the rain, he picked off McLaren's Lando Norris for second at the start, only to fall back to his natural position once drivers got their intermediate tyres back in the right operating window. Lawson battled to claim eighth on the road, being promoted to seventh after Leclerc was penalised for barging his way past in the closing laps.
 
Permane was obviously appreciative of how tough the past few weeks and months have been on one of F1 2026's standout performers, but said the team is nearly there.
 
"I realise it's frustrating for our drivers," he added. "I realise it's frustrating for everyone else, but we want to get it right, and we will get it right. I'm sure when we announce it in the coming weeks, everyone will be happy..."