How Hamilton's Ferrari deal makes Russell's F1 2024 harder

“[In] all the Lewis discussion, something that has not been talked about enough is George. George has the potential to be the next lead driver in the team. He's of the generation of Lando and Leclerc and some of the others. I couldn't wish for a new team leader when Lewis leaves. No doubt about that.

“We've such a solid foundation, such a quick and talented and intelligent guy in a car that we just need to take the right choice for the second driver, the second seat.”

How’s that for a vote of confidence from your boss?

OPINION: The risks in Hamilton’s Ferrari F1 move

Toto Wolff, in the aftermath of Lewis Hamilton’s impeding defection from Mercedes to Ferrari being announced, left Formula 1 followers in no doubt what he thought about the standing and prospects of the other racer in the team’s current line-up, George Russell.

The 25-year-old is now two seasons into works life at the team that signed him as a junior back in 2017, after his lengthy spell as an F1 apprentice with Williams. He’s registered an F1 pole position with that stunning lap at Hungary 2022 and, critically, is a grand prix winner thanks to his triumph in that year’s Sao Paulo race.

That victory sets him apart from Lando Norris and Alex Albon – his contemporaries in the class of 2019 F1 rookies. It also means he stands as Mercedes’ most recent race winner, with Hamilton’s drought stretching back to the Jeddah event late in the 2021 campaign.

Russell is the Mercedes team's most recent race winner thanks to his 2022 success in Brazil

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Russell’s early efforts at the Brackley-based team, which will reveal its 2024 W15 challenger to the world in its traditional Silverstone shakedown on Wednesday, were quickly recognised. His 2022 successes and then impressive showings early in the 2023 campaign meant it had long been decided that his contract extension for 2025 was a formality when it was announced.

Russell has been succeeding at one of only two F1 superteams that can boast a proven track record of title success in the last decade-and-a-half. Since 2009, Red Bull and the Brawn/Mercedes iterations of the Brackley squad have shared all the championship spoils.

Yet soon, Hamilton will leave for the other superteam that has so far failed to crack that two-team hegemony – despite promising starts in 2017, 2018 and 2022. But the seven-time world champion’s decision to head to Ferrari actually makes Russell's coming new season harder, in one important way. This is because of how his 2023 campaign ended up and how it’s viewed by those outside Mercedes.

Russell must banish the memories of those mid-2023 errors and extend the excellent form from early in that campaign that he’d seemed to recapture in Abu Dhabi

Simply put, Russell’s brilliant start to last year – where he’d outshone Hamilton in qualifying, led brilliantly before the first red flag and his engine issue in Australia, plus been waved by his soon-to-be-ex team-mate in Miami – is forgotten in those major mistakes and crashes in Canada, Singapore and Las Vegas.

At least Russell’s last campaign ended on a fine moment in Abu Dhabi, where he secured a walk-off podium – his second of the year – while battling a debilitating illness picked up in F1’s mammoth transfer from Las Vegas to the Middle East. That was for a season finale where Hamilton wallowed.

Russell had come into that race dwelling on being “disappointed with myself in that there’s been a few on my shoulders” in squandered podium chances. There was possibly even a win lost in Qatar given Russell’s speed in the unique event that went begging for Mercedes when its drivers collided at Turn 1 in the main race. He was left targeting a winter “reset”.

Now, he’s just a fortnight away from starting the job that follows such off-season reflections. Russell must banish the memories of those mid-2023 errors and extend the excellent form from early in that campaign that he seemed to recapture in Abu Dhabi.

Russell ended 2023 on a high note, but will be under pressure to replicate this throughout 2024

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

But Hamilton's Ferrari choice has ratcheted up the pressure. Because, if Russell can’t create new positive reminders of his abilities for F1 fans and observers and is again heading into 2025 off the back of another mistake-filled season, then questions over Wolff's faith in him will mount.

PLUS: The painful decision that Hamilton’s Ferrari F1 move has helped Mercedes avoid

Mercedes’ coming choice of who will be Russell’s team-mate for that season will be revealing. And it’s obvious the squad will be factoring results from the coming campaign into its decision making.

The logic of promoting its latest rising junior star – Formula 2 racer Kimi Antonelli – is gaining more traction in F1’s media circus. But such an audacious move can only really happen if the 17-year-old Italian shines immediately in a notoriously tricky championship for rookies.

The chances of a convivial Albon-Russell line-up are at the same time starting to dim. This is because the possibility of Albon returning to Red Bull is really real – he’s already been offered a first option for a 2026 drive once his current Williams deal has finished after wisely retaining strong links with the Thai side of the energy drink giant’s overarching company.

A straight Hamilton swap with soon-to-be-ex-Ferrari driver Carlos Sainz could be considered a sensible move for Mercedes given his mature attitude and technical nous. But the noise pointing to him being signed to lead Audi from 2026 is not petering out.

It would therefore make more sense for Sainz to target an early arrival at Sauber – likely alongside Zhou Guanyu given Audi’s desire to improve its car sales numbers in China – as Mercedes wouldn’t want to offer a rival manufacturer any insight into its engine tech. That’s even if a rare one-year arrangement could be made.

PLUS: Why the 2024 campaign is suddenly critical for one F1 stalwart

In last weekend’s Aston Martin season launch, Fernando Alonso had the chance to stamp out speculation on his chances of a 2025 Mercedes switch from the green team, but he chose not to. In showing his worth to Aston as one of “only three world champions on the grid”, Alonso also highlighted his status to other suitors.

Sainz would be a sensible hire to replace Hamilton at Mercedes

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images

But a Mercedes move for Alonso comes with risk of creating instability at a team that is rebuilding and has placed a premium on avoiding such situations since the Nico Rosberg/Hamilton era ended in 2016.

That potential hazard exists because Alonso has a record of playing team politics games alongside his continuously offered media mantras. But such a pick would be "bold", as Wolff suggested he’s considering in the aftermath of losing Mercedes’ most successful F1 star.

But whether the pressure on Russell’s coming campaign is coming from within his own cockpit or his squad’s team-mate deliberations, he’s no stranger to such burdens. He had to win titles in each of his rookie GP3 and F2 seasons to earn his F1 break and did so brilliantly. Those 2017 and 2018 campaigns were where that no-nonsense, demanding style – of himself and a team around him – did Russell so well.

While 2024 has suddenly become even more important, and therefore naturally harder, he has a chance to seal something huge: his place as Mercedes' long-term leading star.

2024 is doubtlessly the most important season of Russell's career to date

Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images