How Hamilton has lost his edge

The battle between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg at the sharp end of Formula 1 has come alive far too late in the season.

Hamilton became champion some time ago, and no one can take that away from him, but if Rosberg had produced performances and results of this nature in the middle of the year, Hamilton would have found himself in serious trouble.

For three grands prix in succession Hamilton has been unable to beat his Mercedes team-mate, and but for a throttle pedal damper failure in Russia and a "gust of wind" (and too much throttle on a damp kerb) in the United States, Rosberg could quite easily have made Hamilton taste defeat in the last five races.

This is more than just coincidence; it is a pattern of form. The balance of performance between the two rivals has shifted away from Hamilton, and he must work out why, and how to claw it back, if he wants make it three titles in a row next year.

Rosberg's performance in winning the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, laying to rest the demons of his bitter title defeat at last season's Yas Marina finale, was easily the best of what represents a pretty good bunch over the last quarter of this campaign.

His qualifying advantage over Hamilton here, in percentage terms, was the largest he's managed all season, and his final winning margin of 8.271 seconds was of a similar magnitude to Austria, where he beat Hamilton in a straight fight by getting ahead at the start and pulling away.

Rosberg made an early break © XPB

For the third race in a row Rosberg frustrated Hamilton's victory hopes by making a strong start from pole position then controlling the race from the front.

Rosberg was an average of 0.515s per lap faster than Hamilton over the short first stint on used super-soft tyres, building a lead of more than 4.5s before making his first pitstop on lap 10.

Hamilton was then 0.276s per lap faster on average than Rosberg over the first 19 laps of his middle stint on softs, closing to within 1.5s before Rosberg dived into the pits for a second time on lap 31 of 55.

This prevented what could have been a potential wheel-to-wheel contest between the two Mercedes, Rosberg relieving the pressure from behind by taking a new set of tyres and forcing Hamilton to react immediately, or try something different...

Having complained last time out in Brazil about not having any alternative strategic weapons with which to challenge his team-mate, Hamilton was given the option to try something different this time, and the world champion opted to try extending his second stint in order to set up a late-race attack on fresher rubber.

"You all criticised us last time around that we were remote-controlling it too much," quipped Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff, in reference to events at Interlagos a fortnight earlier.

"This time there were two strategies that could have worked, so we left it to him, his race engineer and his side of the garage.

"It was an offset strategy. It was worth consideration to go a little longer and see how it pans out and then, if he could have made that tyre last, he could have gone for the option [super-soft] and that would have been a real call to win the race.

"But the [soft] tyre didn't last, so it went into being the third best option and that obviously was not optimal."

The outpaced Hamilton tried to think of different strategy options © XPB

Hamilton's average pace was a whopping 1.209s per lap slower than the other Mercedes over the next nine laps, as Rosberg put the hammer down on fresh softs (averaging a 1m45.671s laptime in the process) while Hamilton attempted to eke out his tyre life.

At one stage he questioned whether it would be possible to make it to the end without stopping again, but Mercedes told Hamilton that would be "impossible".

Hamilton laboured the point, then eventually conceded and dived for the pits with 15 laps to go.

"I did what I was told pretty much," said Hamilton. "I tried as hard as I could in the first stint, keeping a decent gap to Nico, looking after the tyres.

"The second stint I was quicker, getting close, and I could have made the tyres last longer.

"I'm not sure if I could have taken them to the end. Some part of me wishes I had just given it a go..."

Hamilton said it was the team's decision to pit and fit a fresh set of soft tyres for a final push at trying to win the race.

He was faster than Rosberg over the final part of the grand prix, by an average of 0.329s per lap, but this was not enough to claw back the time lost by extending his second stint.

One wonders if he/Mercedes made the wrong decision by not fitting the faster super-soft tyre at his final stop.

Vettel dodged first corner mayhem and made it through to fourth © LAT

Ferrari's Sebastian Vettel was only fractionally slower than Hamilton on that compound over a final stint that was two laps longer, and required the German to negotiate plenty of traffic on his way back to a fourth-placed finish, in a slower car than Hamilton's Mercedes - but admittedly one that tends to look after its tyres better.

Wolff reckoned this option was too risky for Hamilton, though said the Briton and his crew could have tried it had they so desired.

"I think they were a bit worried the super-soft wouldn't last," explained Wolff.

"On the first stint that tyre lasted eight or 10 laps on full fuel, and at the end it would have been 15 laps to go, so it could have fallen off the cliff and the result definitely would have been worse."

Hamilton slashed Rosberg's advantage from 12.573s to 8.584s in just four laps over the first part of his final stint, but thereafter Rosberg upped his pace and arrested the time loss significantly. Hamilton got within 6.829s of the sister Mercedes with six laps to go, but that was as good as it got.

There was an intimation from Hamilton afterwards that he was prevented from unleashing the full potential of his engine in that final pursuit of Rosberg. But Mercedes always makes a point of equalising these settings between the two cars (especially since some shenanigans in the early part of 2014), so any attempt to try a more aggressive setting would only ever be met by a tit-for-tat move on the other side of the garage - regardless of the fact Rosberg's engine was significantly more second hand than Hamilton's in this race.

"The engine mode was going up and down and I'm not really sure why it was like that because I had lots of life left," argued Hamilton. Wolff said the management of these settings to protect the power units was simply "business as usual".

Make of that what you will, but regardless Hamilton was left to reflect on another clear defeat to his team-mate.

The change in set-up direction has hurt Hamilton's feeling in the W06, he says © XPB

He suggested ahead of the race that he's been struggling to feel comfortable in the W06 since some "drastic" set-up changes were made in the wake of a disastrous Singapore Grand Prix, where Mercedes couldn't get the soft and super-soft tyre compounds working properly. Some changes were made as a direct result of this, alongside the usual constant chassis development, and Hamilton's contention is that he's suffered as a result.

"I knew we made a change but I didn't really think it was going to make a huge difference," said Hamilton ahead of this race.

"But from Suzuka the car was trickier. You just keep pushing and pushing and hoping for better, but it had already lost the advantage at Suzuka.

"It's definitely been something I'm conscious of."

It's entirely possible that the car has got away from Hamilton since Singapore, and no doubt Mercedes needed to react technically to avoid a repeat of that disaster.

Perhaps Rosberg has simply made more of the tools at his disposal since then, as Hamilton has struggled to find the same comfort with the car he felt before.

If anything has changed it's been a gradual and non-linear process. Don't forget Hamilton won in Japan, and was confident of taking pole position there too until Daniil Kvyat crashed his Red Bull in Q3.

If you look at the qualifying form since then, Rosberg has been on pole every time, but the gap has fluctuated. In America and Brazil it was very close (one per cent or less); in Russia, Mexico and Abu Dhabi it was significantly higher (2-4 per cent).

Rosberg again took control of the weekend by claiming pole © XPB

Hamilton came within a tenth of nicking pole from Rosberg in Brazil, and was leading the way in Abu Dhabi until he uncharacteristically lost time on his first Q3 run.

In general terms it looks as though the Mercedes drivers have traded places suddenly - with Rosberg faster in qualifying and Hamilton stronger in the races, but unable to show it unless he muscles past at the first corner (as in Japan and the US), or Rosberg suffers a problem (as in Russia).

Regardless of the technical component of this shift, it is also likely that Hamilton has lost a little of the intensity that drove him to his third world title in the first place.

Sustaining the energy required to be one step ahead all the time is extraordinarily difficult when it is no longer essential, and Rosberg is a strong enough competitor that he is more than capable of pouncing on any potential slip.

"There has been so much discussion about whether he has stepped up his game, or has the car come towards him development-wise, or has Lewis just taken it more easy subconsciously? I don't know," added Wolff.

"I don't think it is something that would happen consciously, because [Hamilton] is still pushing very hard, he is still the same guy with the same talent and putting the same effort into it. You have to ask him, but it could play a role.

"After Singapore we developed in a different direction - we took some learning on board from that weekend. Whether the car has come more towards Nico and gone away from Lewis, I don't know. It could be a factor.

Rosberg is now the centre of Mercedes team celebrations © LAT

"I wouldn't want to reduce it onto one single factor; there could be many possible factors playing a role.

"We have to do an intelligent list over the next couple of weeks to try and analyse. I think for Lewis, the world championship mattered [more], but then those past few races were really great driving from Nico..."

It's important not to underestimate the job Rosberg has done over these final few races. He was pummelled into submission by Hamilton over the early part of the season, lost a hatful of points to technical problems in Italy and Russia, and conceded the championship with three races to spare, but he hasn't let his head drop at all. He has dug deep and come back stronger.

"I'm ecstatic with the way it went," said Rosberg. "I managed and controlled the pace throughout the race, I managed the tyres and was able to use them optimally, I did a lot more laps on them than Lewis in the last stint, and had good pace."

If you're on pole for a race and you nail the start you will dictate terms in the fastest car. Rosberg's steadily improving form and hard work has finally started paying off. The trouble is it no longer counts for anything meaningful except pride, so he needs to continue this when the title is on the line again.

"I'm enjoying that I have progressed at the end of the season," Rosberg added. "Too late for the championship, of course, but it is still great to have it.

"Unfortunately, 2016 is so far away and I can't tell you about next year, but I'll give it everything."

It's entirely possible that Hamilton hasn't quite been giving it everything himself during his team-mate's late purple patch, but he will surely be back to his best after a winter break to recharge the batteries and come out fighting again.

Rosberg's mission is to remain one step ahead when he does. Hamilton's previous edge is blunted, but this has come too little too late for his vanquished rival.