How Hamilton and Mercedes are plotting their course back to the top in F1

Of the stars in the Ursa Minor constellation, Polaris is the most luminous. Easily visible on the darkest of nights, Polaris is a focal point in both astronomy and navigation; as a cepheid variable star (in other words, it pulsates), it can be used to determine spatial distances to other galaxies. And, because it sits almost directly over the Earth’s celestial north pole, it can be traced by seafarers to travel north. It’s probably better known as the North Star.

On a cloudy night, however, its luminescence is eclipsed by the gloom; finding your way without it is a much more arduous endeavour. It’s an enveloping state of purgatory within which Mercedes has existed for the past two years, running aground multiple times as it seeks to plot its course towards the top of Formula 1. Its own radical concepts had not maintained its turbo-hybrid-era successes, instead producing a feedback loop of seemingly endless problems. In addressing those issues, Mercedes’ fixes seemed to vacillate between the forensic and a more trial-and-error approach.

“We didn’t have a North Star necessarily at the beginning of the year, knowing exactly where we need to work towards,” explained Lewis Hamilton in 2023. “It’s been kind of a zigzag line trying to get to where we need to be. Every now and then something positive happens, you’re like, ‘OK, that’s it’. And then it shifts, so the goalpost is always moving, which is typical.”

The team has pledged an all-new car for 2024. Now, Hamilton reckons, a sense of direction and purpose has once again come into view: “I do believe we have a North Star now, which I don’t think we’ve had for two years. But still getting there is not a straight line…”

For the Briton, this is none too soon. The notion of two years without a win had seemed an impossibility when he was chalking up race victories seemingly every weekend in his pomp, but it has coincided with Mercedes’ failure to make its car philosophy work under the dramatic changes to F1’s technical regulations.

When the W13 emerged for 2022, bearing its minimalistic approach to sidepod design, many perhaps assumed that the Brackley squad’s divergence from the rest of the grid had presented a masterstroke. When the car hit the track, it showed serious deficiencies, while Red Bull proved to have built upon Max Verstappen’s last-gasp title success from 2021.

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Mercedes persisted with zeropod design that carried the team to 2022 Interlagos 1-2 last year, but it proved a mistake

Mercedes initially stuck to its guns for the development of its W14. Steady improvement over 2022 had transformed the once-recalcitrant W13 into a race winner, and the gradient of progress had been enough to prompt the team to retain its tiny sidepods for the 2023 season. The team’s technical figures had been adamant that there was still an untapped vein of performance to find within its design hypothesis. Instead, 2022’s ascent proved to be a false dawn. Hamilton recalls the W14’s first shakedown at Silverstone, where he felt a sense of deja vu to his first experience with its predecessor.

“I remember it feeling exactly the same, and definitely was not a great feeling,” Hamilton explains. “I really had high hopes. You train through the winter with the mindset that hopefully, when you see everyone working at the factory, you think it’s going in the right way. And in February, when we do a download of where the car is going, I was a little bit more apprehensive compared to the previous year.

“The previous year it was like, ‘The car is amazing, it’s so unique, no one’s going to have anything like it’. And then we get to the first test… So I was a little bit more cautious, and I was like, ‘We’ll see’. And then the car had all these problems. So, I just knew that it was going to be a long year.”

"I did a lot less of that experimental stuff in 2023 because, ultimately, it’s really just about car characteristics. You could change 100 things, but it doesn’t really change the fact that the aero package is wrong" Lewis Hamilton

Throughout 2022, Hamilton, as the senior driver alongside newcomer George Russell, had been burdened with experimental set-ups. While many of them did not bear fruit, his work had helped the team chart a course through the labyrinthine maze it had built itself. Russell snared the team’s only win of 2022 in Brazil, adding to the sense of optimism that it was on the right track. It was not so; for 2023, it emerged that the squad had rather uprooted its old maze and planted a new one that was just as complex to navigate.

Mercedes principal Toto Wolff had been adamant that there were “no holy cows” in the team’s philosophy and, when the team found that its 2023 car had not delivered the step forward that it hoped for, it introduced a new sidepod and floor solution in late May for Monaco that did away with its previous hallmarks. Prior to that, technical chief Mike Elliott had been relieved of his duties, and James Allison returned to his old post overseeing the development of the F1 project’s technical departments.

The experimentation that Hamilton had to conduct was nowhere near as excessive as it had been in 2022, when Mercedes sought to find a cure for the W13’s propensity to porpoise at the drop of a hat. Instead, he says a tacit acceptance that the overall aerodynamic concept was wrong prompted a rethink of how to get the best out of the car; rather than searching in vain for the golden-goose set-up with endless clicks of a socket wrench, the team began to engage in bigger-picture thinking. Hamilton says that he was willing to be a part of that, and laid the soul-searching processes bare.

“I did a lot less of that experimental stuff in 2023 because, ultimately, it’s really just about car characteristics,” he adds. “You could change 100 things, but it doesn’t really change the fact that the aero package is wrong. Sometimes it’s in the window, a lot of the time it’s out the window and no matter what settings, car set-up changes you make, whether it’s mechanical, roll stiffness, all those sorts of different things, you can’t overpower the aero characteristics and through-corner balance.

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Hamilton largely abandoned the set-up experiments that had been such a feature of his 2022 campaign last season

“So, what I did was just spent more time at the factory, having meetings with all of the key heads of the different departments and trying to keep them positive because if you imagine, for them, no one feels great. And it can be demoralising.

“So it was just really talking to them, saying, ‘OK, we can do this, this is the area that we have a problem, this is what we’ve got to work towards’. And I would just help, try to be positive with them. I was looking at other cars, and I was asking just lots and lots of questions just to stimulate ideas. But, ultimately, letting them do their jobs.”

A ‘strengthening year’

It’s not all been doom and gloom in Hamilton’s world of late. Third place in the 2023 drivers’ championship added shine to a strong year for the Stevenage native, after falling behind Russell in the standings in the season prior. There were very clear highlights: pole at the Hungaroring, second-place finishes in Australia, Spain and Mexico – although the United States GP probably represents the best of his efforts over the year.

Hamilton has always been a dab hand at the Circuit of The Americas and, armed with a floor upgrade for F1’s second US trip of the year, properly put Verstappen under the microscope over the second half of the race. It was probably just as well that he didn’t win, following his disqualification for a skid-block infringement that resulted in that second place being chalked off.

That said, Hamilton’s final three races of the season were meek at best; Mercedes was out to lunch over the Brazil weekend, while Las Vegas and Abu Dhabi were both middling results that suggested he was keen to get the season over with. When the year ended with a fluffed last-lap assault on Yuki Tsunoda at Yas Marina, it suggested that Hamilton had had enough of 2023 with a lap to spare.

Although there were very clear miscues from Hamilton, such as his first-lap clash with Russell in Qatar, most of his races were impressive. It’s one-lap pace that has been a perpetual weakness for Mercedes, at least relative to its race performance (which makes the Hungary pole more impressive). So Hamilton and Russell have had a little more work to do to recover on Sundays.

“My racecraft and race pace, I’ve been really happy with through the year,” Hamilton assesses. “Not a lot of mistakes, most of my race performances have been really good; I’m happy with building that up to the level it should be. But qualifying is still an area that needs to be improved. We struggle as a team getting the performance out of these tyres.

“You’ll notice there was one weekend where George will be massively off and I’ll be OK, and then it switches the other way. And those are down to small details with our car. So, we need to work better as a team to be able to extract it more consistently, as some of the others do.

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Hamilton is keen that Mercedes addresses its struggles with tyres that have too often impacted qualifying over the past two years

“Generally I’ve been much happier with my performance than in 2022 – that year was difficult because of always trying all these different things, and then the weekends were disastrous. You could say some of it was erratic in terms of the set-up changes we were trying, but for me, we were not fighting for a championship.

“It was all about discovery and trying to see if there was any way of finding more information, of where the window is and where the car needs to be to work at its best. I think it was definitely a good learning year.”

You could forgive Hamilton for viewing the past two years as wasted seasons, as his hopes of securing a potential eighth championship waned spectacularly with Mercedes’ downturn in form. When it became apparent that the team’s drop in performance at the start of 2022 was more than just ephemeral, there was a growing frustration from within the camp.

"I am grateful for the challenge we’ve had, the lessons we’ve learned as a team. And it has been massively challenging from a human side as well, outside of the car and how you are as a team-mate to all the people you’re working with" Lewis Hamilton

Some onlookers considered it hubristic, and arrogant that the team should expect to contend for titles every year. Instead, it’s more akin to a high level of expectation from everyone involved; the drivers also expect the best from the team and themselves.

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But the knowledge gained from winning every week is limited. There are very clear lessons in defeat, so long as an entity does not replicate the mistakes, and Hamilton considers the challenges that the team has faced over the past two years as “strengthening”. Asked whether the troubles of 2022 and 2023 might have extended Hamilton’s career by prolonging the pangs of hunger to win, he joked about the adverse effects of helping to rebuild the team.

“I would say it has probably shortened my life! [He laughs]. Stress definitely shortens your life expectancy. But I am grateful for the challenge we’ve had, the lessons we’ve learned as a team. And it has been massively challenging from a human side as well, outside of the car and how you are as a team-mate to all the people you’re working with. It has been a strengthening year.”

Improving the formula for 2024

After its first forays into the revived ground-effect formula had yielded only limited success, Mercedes’ shuffling on the technical front reintroduced a tried-and-tested line-up as Allison took control once more. That’s not to say that Mercedes’ failure to continue its winning ways fell solely upon Elliott’s shoulders, but rather that the team needed to change something.

Hamilton, who has a long history of working with Elliott, was in awe of the now-ex-Mercedes technical chief and his abilities, but agreed that Allison was the right choice to help “galvanise” an engineering department that has likely lost confidence over the past couple of years.

Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool

Mercedes has made changes to its technical staff, with Allison returning to the helm as technical director, but will it be enough to challenge Red Bull?

“I think it’s important for people to know that I wasn’t part of Mike’s departure,” he says. “I’d known Mike since I was at McLaren, had a great relationship with Mike. When I was at McLaren I was in awe of him, just because he’s so smart and I was just learning so much from him. When I asked him about the car, there was nothing that he didn’t have an answer for.

“What’s always difficult for someone in his position – and I remember this at McLaren – it often falls on them but it’s a collective. Everybody, all these pieces coming together, not just one person. There unfortunately may be people in the outside world who think it’s one individual’s fault.

“But James, he’s got that leader mentality, more than I think any other engineer I’ve come across. He’d be at the front with the sword saying ‘let’s go’ and go into the fire. And I think he does instil massive confidence in people. He’s so eloquent in how he speaks. He delivers speeches to the team, week in, week out. He’s great, telling everyone how it is and what we’ve got to do, and it galvanises the whole team.”

But will it be enough to take the fight to Red Bull? Hamilton was effusive in his praise of the Milton Keynes team and the fruit of its labours, the RB19. On following the car, he remarked that it “does everything well” and reminded him of Mercedes’ W11 from the 2020 season – a car that he won 11 races in that year. Since their explosive battle for supremacy in 2021, the two teams have been on very different trajectories; while Red Bull had been able to build on its strengths for 2022 and carry into 2023, Hamilton felt that Mercedes needed “to knock down the wall” between seasons.

In the process of dismantling that wall, Mercedes has added to its great library of experience to inform the design of its 2024 car. It made some of those changes over 2023, but its situation was not analogous to McLaren’s, where the Woking squad already had the basis for its later aerodynamic overhaul present.

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Mercedes’ progression was limited by the infrastructure of the car, which could not be so easily changed under the cost cap. Now there are fewer excuses because the team has the data showing how not to forge its path with car development – not that it doubted that it needed to change its approach for 2024.

If Mercedes gets the formula right for this year, it ties up many of the elements that have plagued it over 2022 and 2023. When the car simply ‘works’, a team rarely has to spend as much time tinkering with set-up options, meaning that it can focus on optimisation at a more granular level. And, when the cars are perfect, it’s all down to the drivers to execute the perfect weekend.

This is probably the area where Mercedes boasts the most strength. Russell is a star in the making, while seven world titles show that Hamilton can do the business when the car is right. Despite the tribulations faced over the past couple of seasons, he’s still got the desire to compete – and likely wouldn’t have signed until the end of 2025 if he hadn’t.

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Hamilton has signed a new two-year deal, and is eager to get back to challenging for the top positions again

“I think that’s a misconception [that he hadn’t had a long drought before],” points out Hamilton. “When I was younger, I had shit years when I was a kid. 2009, the car was horrendous. We did have a win through the year because we had a second upgrade in the season. 2010-11, also not great years.

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“One on my side from a personal side, the other more often than not the car was not spectacular. It’s maybe the biggest drought in terms of success, but if you take away those wins it’s been similar to those seasons. I think I’ve learned a lot about my mind state and how to keep it in a solid place and staying positive, adding new tools into my armoury so I can continue to do what I do.

“I’m 38 years old [now 39] and I feel great in my body. That’s due to certain tools I’ve been able to accumulate during these two years. Time that I’ve been able to manage outside racing, and I think I’ve been able to do a much better job of maintaining energy and focus. I’ve got a better team around me than ever before.

"When the magic happens, when everything comes together, the car and you get that spark, it’s extraordinary – and that’s what you’re in the search for. You’re going to be stuck with me for a bit longer" Lewis Hamilton

“I guess ultimately, when you have difficult seasons like this, there are always going to be moments when you’re like, ‘Is it me or is it the car? Do you still have it? Has it gone?’ But when the magic happens, when everything comes together, the car and you get that spark, it’s extraordinary – and that’s what you’re in the search for. You’re going to be stuck with me for a bit longer.”

Hamilton firmly believes that Mercedes has found direction once again, a focal point to follow as it chases the successes that it reeled off in the past. If true, then his aspirations of an eighth title to beat, rather than stay matched with, Michael Schumacher’s record of seven will become ever brighter.

If Mercedes has based its navigation around the wrong star, then Hamilton has a decision to make. And, unless there’s a surprise late-career jumping of ships, Hamilton’s eventual exit from F1 would be the antithesis of his entrance in 2007 – and that would be an anti-climax unbefitting of his career.

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Can Hamilton succeed in his bid to secure the eighth world title denied him in 2021?

‘Emotional’ thoughts of leaving F1 after 2021 finale

Living through history rarely feels quite so glorious when it comes at your own expense. For Max Verstappen, winning the 2021 title on the final lap of a contentious Abu Dhabi Grand Prix will likely remain his finest and most memorable triumph. For Lewis Hamilton, it was heart-shattering.

Magnanimous in the moment, Hamilton rode off into the sunset once the weekend’s festivities were truly over. Then, there was radio silence. His social media channels barely flickered into life, and this prompted suggestions that he might be on the brink of hanging up his helmet for good. Outlandish? Yes. But, as Hamilton explains, it wasn’t all that far from the truth.

“For sure [he considered retiring], yeah,” he said. “There was so much going through my mind during that period in time. I think one of the worst things you can do is make decisions based on emotions, and when you’re emotional and in the heat of that moment, more often than not, you’re not going to make the best decisions. It was a really difficult period of time, so I had to just wait until things calmed down, that I was clear in my thought and I was able to then make the right decisions.”

It was a family holiday in Hawaii that helped Hamilton work through the aftermath of 2021. Time spent with his niece and nephew allowed him to centre himself to continue.

With a deal stretching until the end of 2025, Hamilton has at least two more seasons to return to winning ways. This year will likely define the path that he takes in the future, depending on how successful Mercedes’ change in direction is. If not, would Hamilton stick it out to the end – or quit, abruptly, like late three-time champion and Mercedes adviser Niki Lauda did in his first retirement in 1979?

“I can’t say,” he ponders. “I really have no idea. It could be abrupt and I just disappear from the face of the earth. It could be I move into a different role. I really have no idea. I still love driving, I still love getting into the car.”

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

Hamilton considered retiring after the manner of his 2021 world championship defeat in Abu Dhabi