Is Mercedes experiencing an extended blip or the end of an F1 dynasty?

Did Toto Wolff pack a travel-size tombola drum in his suitcase this season? When it came to appraising the W14, it seemed as though the Mercedes motorsport boss had cranked the handle, picked a random ticket, then relayed the corresponding epithet. The car was a “surprise box”, “Diva 2.0”, “miserable thing” and a “nasty piece of work”, to list but a few unflattering testimonials.

The first winless creation to emerge from the Brackley factory since 2011 needed until the dying laps of the Abu Dhabi finale to secure second position in the constructors’ championship over Ferrari as George Russell bagged the last of only eight podium finishes for the squad. At least its Italian rival could toast a grand prix victory and is now entitled to more aerodynamic testing time to chase after Red Bull.

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When the W14 broke cover, it clearly borrowed heavily from its predecessor as the unmistakable ‘size-zero’ sidepods remained. Mercedes pioneered a slender architecture for the 2022 return of ground effect because, with so much of the prepotent floor exposed, class-leading downforce was simulated. But this was only achieved in the wind tunnel with its smooth rolling road.

At real-world circuits, with all their lumps and bumps, the ride height had to be raised to navigate a bouncing and porpoising double whammy. The car was moved outside of its narrow operating window to leave it lurching between understeer and snap oversteer.

However, there were glimmers last year. Race pace was stellar in Spain, and Russell bagged pole in Hungary before Lewis Hamilton chased after Max Verstappen in Texas and Mexico. Russell then won the Brazil sprint and main race. These all suggested that, on its day, the platform had the innate pace to threaten Red Bull. As such, the designers stuck to their guns for 2023.

The difference for this second attempt was that, rather than run the W14 slammed into the ground, Mercedes sought to generate downforce when the platform was raised. But when rubber hit the road, engineers soon discovered an aerodynamic performance ceiling had been hit. The set-up was duly lowered but, rather than finally settling in a ‘Goldilocks’ sweet spot, the car was now in a state of compromise whereby nothing was configured to run as originally intended.

Hamilton, who eventually wound up third in the points, recalls: “When I first drove the car in February, I knew immediately that it wasn’t a championship-winning car. It felt identical to the previous year’s car so that was definitely a concern.”

Photo by: Erik Junius

Hamilton was critical of Mercedes' direction after the team continued into 2023 with a unique sidepod concept

Wolff adds: “The most clever people don’t understand where they got it wrong. Great infrastructure, all the resource that you need, the right mindset… Maybe because we wanted to be compliant with all the financial regulations, [chief designer] John Owen was more involved in making sure that the accounting side was working than in designing a car.

“But put simply, we got the physics wrong. Our tools didn’t work as good as they did for all the other previous technical regulations. Physics. Nothing mystical.”

Hamilton had further complaints. To exploit the unique sidepod concept, Mercedes left the crash structure exposed so it could act as an aerodynamic device. But to do so meant shifting the cockpit further forwards. The seven-time champion, renowned for his mastery of a lively rear, felt it was just too skittish: “When you’re driving, you feel like you’re sitting on the front wheels, which is one of the worst feelings. It makes it harder to predict.”

“It gets boring because every weekend you are hopeful that it’s going to be good. But pretty much each time, it’s under your expectations and your hopes" Lewis Hamilton

Hamilton finished fifth in the Bahrain opener while Russell clocked seventh. Meanwhile, Fernando Alonso humbled both in wheel-to-wheel combat as Aston Martin emerged as the closest challenger to Verstappen and Sergio Perez. Wolff reckoned that the Bahrain GP was “one of the worst days in racing” for his team. This would come to accompany a Belgian qualifying he labelled as “the worst… I had in 10 years”, and a visit to Brazil regarded as the “worst weekend in 13 years”.

Given the anonymous start, which added to the misery of 2022, the top brass concluded that only a change of car concept would do. In previous eras, that would have meant the mid-season introduction of a ‘B-spec’ machine. But Mercedes had its hands tied.

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Ground effect requires a holistic approach. Alpine’s floor won’t necessarily work with McLaren’s rear wing. Accordingly, to bring about wholesale change would have meant an all-new chassis that needed to pass crash-testing. The 2021 introduction of a cost cap, partly conceived to bring the field closer together, made that fanciful. Mercedes was then essentially stuck in a holding pattern as Red Bull tallied up the victories.

Despite the restrictions, the W14 still looked dramatically different when it rolled out of the garage for round six in Monaco. A more conventional downwash sidepod, complete with ‘waterslide’ ramp towards the rear, had been adopted. The front suspension was overhauled, too. It is said that Hamilton and Wolff had plenty of sway when it came to the design office ultimately changing tack and chasing something slightly more akin to the yardstick Red Bull RB19.

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Mercedes sported more conventional sidepods when the championship arrived in Monaco

“I had asked for certain changes and they clearly weren’t done,” says Hamilton. “There were definitely frustrating moments… The [engineering] debrief, it gets boring because every weekend you are hopeful that it’s going to be good. But pretty much each time, it’s under your expectations and your hopes.”

While the aerodynamicists had been busy, so too were their bosses. In April, technical director Mike Elliott – effectively the overlord of Ws 13 and 14 – swapped jobs with chief technical officer James Allison, who returned to a more hands-on role. That switcheroo has always been billed as a mutual decision between the pair. But would a team so proud of its ‘no blame’ culture say anything else? In October, after 11 years of service, Elliott announced that he was leaving Mercedes altogether.

Hamilton clarifies: “There unfortunately may be people in the outside world who think it’s one individual’s fault. It never is. James has got that leader mentality more than any other engineer I’ve come across. He does instil massive confidence in people. He’s so eloquent in how he speaks.”

Elliott’s last race in the paddock was the United States GP, where a new floor made an instant impact. Had Russell not fluffed his launch to wave sixth-starting Verstappen by into Turn 1, Hamilton might have plausibly beaten the champion to the flag – only to be disqualified hours later for finishing with an overly worn plank. While the sprint race format and a rough Austin track caught out Ferrari that weekend as well, Mercedes’ season was notable for a spate of operational shortcomings.

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Correlation does not equal causation. But in a year where pitwall powerhouse James Vowles left to head up Williams, Mercedes faltered too often. Russell and Hamilton collided in Q2 in Spain, “catastrophic” strategy undermined the visit to the Netherlands, the pair delayed one another in the Belgian sprint shootout, then shunted dramatically at the first corner in Qatar. Wolff also cited Mercedes falling behind with its pitstops – another factor that denied Hamilton the chance to pip Verstappen in Texas.

The Austrian admits: “Our mindset in the last 12 years: we don’t need to be world champions in pitstops. We need to avoid very slow pitstops. It’s coming to a situation now where we realise that it’s got so competitive and we just need to ramp up our game there.

“We have fallen short of key components and performance. It’s not only the car’s behaviour, but the pitstops have been very oscillating. It’s nothing to do with the mechanics, our equipment just wasn’t up to the levels that are necessary. Our DRS is not working as it should [due to conventional sidepods on a package never conceived to run them]. We had the odd strategic mishap. The days that we lose are the days we learn the most.”

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Hamilton's first corner tangle with Russell in Qatar was an unwelcome blemish on his season

The intra-team Qatar shunt was a carbon copy of Hamilton’s ill-fated dice with old pal Alonso at Spa in 2022. He tried to pass around the outside but turned in when the car to his right had nowhere to go. That was two races on from Russell’s biggest blunder.

On the final lap in Singapore, the top four ran nose to tail. Victory hopes might have been fading, but second place was up for grabs if Russell could dive past compatriot Lando Norris. Instead, following in the wheeltracks of a McLaren that kissed the wall, the Mercedes whacked it to crash out in a shower of sparks. As Wolff made clear, better to make those mistakes now rather than when the team is back fighting for titles. That’s something it intends to do with an unchanged driver line-up, having re-signed Hamilton and Russell until the end of 2025.

Russell had already reset himself over the summer break, addressing his hitherto patchy qualifying record to end the year tied 11 all with Hamilton in the one-lap head-to-head. But he ultimately ranked only eighth in the standings, partly the legacy of a poorly timed pitstop preceding an engine fire after leading early on in Australia, plus mismanaging the arrival of rain at Zandvoort.

“I’ve never had a season like this – when I see so many opportunities that have gone past,” reflects Russell. “That’s definitely very frustrating. Right now, I’m scratching my head a little bit how so many results have slipped through my fingers.

Within a few laps of testing it becomes relatively clear whether colleagues can start to mentally spend their bonuses for winning that year’s crowns. Mercedes must therefore come out immediately fighting next term

“No doubt, it’s been probably the toughest season I’ve ever had psychologically. Bouncing back from missed opportunities, missed results, mistakes. I could comfortably lift my foot off the gas pedal and drive a percent below the limit and I could sit here right now and tell you that I wouldn’t make a single mistake.

“Probably when I sit through my [junior] championship years, I wasn’t being pushed as much as I’m pushing myself now. I’m purposely trying to push myself further and beyond. I’m not satisfied with just being on par with my team-mate in qualifying or whatever it may be. I want to be ahead. I’m thankful it’s not a season where we’re fighting for a championship victory.”

Courtesy of the cost cap, Mercedes was forced to persevere with an architecture it had long since decided to ditch. A clean sheet of paper for 2024 should allow the Three-Pointed Star to finally close the gap to Red Bull – although its Milton Keynes foe is already two years down the road understanding its own optimal take, around which everyone else has converged.

As Hamilton says, within a few laps of testing it becomes relatively clear whether colleagues can start to mentally spend their bonuses for winning that year’s crowns. Mercedes must therefore come out immediately fighting next term following a campaign that didn’t right too many of 2022’s wrongs. Failing that, it will be entirely appropriate to ask whether this is no longer merely a ground-effect stumble for the eight-time constructors’ champion but, instead, the fall of an F1 dynasty.

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

The W14 is not a car that Mercedes will look back on fondly