How external factors have disguised the true scale of Mercedes' turnaround task

The porpoising Mercedes W13 has proved no match for the rapid Ferrari and Red Bull creations at the start of this ground-effect sequel for Formula 1. But the perception has been the team is a safe third, comfortably ahead of the shining lights of the midfield. There’s also an assumption that it’s only a matter of time before the three-pointed star unlocks the car and bounces back into contention for race wins. However, after three rounds in 2022, those causes for optimism must come with major health warnings.

At no point has Mercedes looked on the cusp of snatching a pole or victory so far this term. For an outfit that won eight constructors’ titles on the bounce, and for seven of those years also sewed up the drivers’ crown as a sign of its turbo-hybrid imperiousness, this is the leanest start to a season since 2011. That reinforces why Mercedes wanted to check expectations during testing, despite many supposing the Silver Arrows squad was merely bluffing.

The double retirement for Red Bull at Sakhir allowed Lewis Hamilton and George Russell to emerge with a 3-4 finish in a display labelled as “an effective damage limitation weekend” – a remarkable summary from a squad that has achieved such sustained success. Max Verstappen pulling up in Australia with another fuel system issue also elevated the Brackley crew, which now sits second in the championship as Russell occupies the same position in the drivers’ table.

While it’s clear Mercedes has been boosted by the unreliability that has hobbled its bitter rival of 2021, the accepted conclusion is that the W13 is still operating well beyond the clutches of the chasing pack to prevent the team from relentlessly looking over its shoulder. However, there is evidence that Mercedes has regressed from being the third fastest and is now absolutely midfield fodder.

Mercedes' early position in the F1 pecking order might have been skewed by Red Bull's own recent woes

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images

Supertimes reveal how far a team is adrift of a potentially perfect lap during a grand prix weekend. The fastest time set at each event earns a perfect score of 0.000 and the remaining nine teams earn a percentage over that benchmark.

By this measure, Mercedes was third in Bahrain. It fell 0.541 shy of Ferrari while keeping comfortably clear of fourth-fastest Haas and its score of 0.997s. But in Saudi, Mercedes’ supertime shortcoming rose to 1.025 – as Red Bull leapfrogged Ferrari – and it ceded a spot to Alpine. Last time out at Albert Park, a marked if perhaps only temporary, boost in form for McLaren relegated Mercedes again to fifth. It held a supertime deficit of a considerable 1.229 as Ferrari once more led the way during a round when Red Bull’s tyre struggles gave the impression Russell and Hamilton had closed the gap.

While that metric is a touch one-dimensional, in so far as supertimes tend not to pick up on consistent race pace, it is still suggesting that Mercedes is unexpectedly falling further adrift with each passing GP.

In Australia Ferrari hadn’t eradicated the oscillating problem either, the airflow of the F1-75 appeared only to stall at the higher speeds achieved at the end of straights. But the Mercedes has been pogoing well before, hurting it in corners

Of course, Mercedes is no stranger to “diva” cars, as per Toto Wolff in deference to the W08 and W12 most notably. But on each occasion, it has tamed the unruly ride – taking the title down to the wire last year despite the tweaked floors design rules that hurt it considerably. After the small sample size so far in 2022, that doesn’t yet appear to be the case.

What’s more, with a budget cap in place and having held first place for so long in the constructors’, Mercedes has the fewest windtunnel hours and CFD items to spend under the revised Aerodynamic Testing Regulations. It can no longer throw an endless amount of money and resource at the W13 to fix it.

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The main issue facing the car still lies with porpoising. While the bobbing heads of Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jr in Australia proved Ferrari hadn’t fully eradicated the oscillating problem either, the airflow of the F1-75 appeared only to stall at the higher speeds achieved at the end of straights. The Mercedes has been pogoing well before, hurting it in corners. That forces the car to run an exaggerated rideheight, which kills downforce in a ground-effect age. This will likely carry over to Imola, thanks to it being the first sprint race weekend of the new campaign.

Mercedes looks set for another tough weekend at Imola unless it risks trying a range of updates with limited practice time

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Images

With a 60-minute practice session lost and qualifying arriving earlier on Friday afternoon, a chunk of potential troubleshooting time has fallen off the schedule. As a result, Red Bull and Ferrari have already ruled out bringing a host of upgrades, despite the easing of logistical headaches that come with it being the first European round of the season. Should Mercedes be similarly pragmatic – having so far only run trimmed front and rear wings to adapt for Jeddah and not brought any new parts for Melbourne – it will again wade into battle with damp powder.

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Those circumstances don’t offer an abundance of hope that Mercedes will stop losing ground in the ‘supertimes’ this weekend. So, if Red Bull can conquer its fragility and stop gifting away places to Mercedes, the crack squad of recent times might be left to run as a nailed-on midfield contender rather than again walking away, having had its blushes spared, as a somewhat deceptive ‘best of the rest’.

What can Mercedes produce at Imola this weekend?

Photo by: Steve Etherington / Motorsport Images