Hamilton loses out in knife-edge call

Sport is all about balancing risk against reward, a human endeavour in which knife-edge decisions can make the difference between success and failure.

Lewis Hamilton and his Mercedes crew danced that tightrope and ended up on the wrong side of a marginal call.

Not that Hamilton's second place in the Brazilian Grand Prix was really a failure. Heading into the race, he knew that runner-up spots in the two remaining races of the 2014 Formula 1 season would secure a second world championship.

From that perspective, it was job half-done. But Hamilton had reiterated his mantra that he was here to win, not cruise and collect, several times at Interlagos, and his race performance showed he meant it.

The window of opportunity was wide open for Hamilton when it came to the second round of pitstops. Rosberg had led from the start, holding onto his advantage during the first, early, round of stops when the majority of the field switched from the shortlived soft-compound Pirelli onto the medium that proved to be the rubber of choice for the race.

But on the in-lap before his second stop, Rosberg's cushion was only a second from the other Silver Arrow that had been lurking not far behind for much of that stint. This was the chance for Hamilton to attack.

And he did so, spectacularly, setting the fastest first- and second-sector times seen up to that point on what he thought was his in-lap. But the decision on the pitwall was to leave Hamilton out for another lap, and it was a perfectly rational one, for his speed was such on lap 27 that he was already likely to be able to pit and re-emerge in the lead.

Hamilton's spin came just as he looked poised to take the lead © XPB

With one more quick lap, it would be a done deal. And it would also encourage Rosberg to push harder when he was being careful not to ask too much of his fresh mediums at the start of his stint.

"[It was] just before the pitlane, it was as I was coming up the hill," said Hamilton of the moment he realised he was being left out for an extra lap. "They said keep pushing."

And push he did. In the short first sector, Hamilton was again quick, a tenth faster than Rosberg was on that lap. But when he hit the brakes for the Descida do Lago, the rear wheels locked.

He was on it quickly, correcting, but he was spat wide where he couldn't find grip to avoid a spin. It cost him around six seconds, and very possibly victory.

"They told me to do a switch change and, as I was doing it, I didn't go back on my brake balance," said Hamilton. "I hit the brakes and I locked the rears, so one thing happened after another."

Hamilton's speed was undeniable, but as the closing stages of the race demonstrated, if he was to get ahead of Rosberg it would require some strategic assistance. The attempt to complete that extra lap before the second stop potentially offered exactly that, but it proved to be ill-starred.

"He got the call 'hammer time' and he really squeezed all the performance out of the car," explained Mercedes motorsport supremo Toto Wolff. "Because he was so quick and delivering purple [fastest] sector times, that stint was extended by another lap and you could see he lost the car on entry."

Rather than being just ahead of Rosberg, Hamilton found himself seven-and-a-half seconds behind at the end of lap 29. Yes, he was faster, but given the championship situation, it seemed that he would have to accept his challenge was broken. From there, simply play it safe, bank the second place and go to Abu Dhabi knowing that a trouble-free race would guarantee the title.

Conservatism nearly cost Hamilton the title in Brazil in 2008 © LAT

This could not have been further from what Hamilton was thinking. Perhaps mindful of the way he almost lost the 2008 drivers' championship at Interlagos thanks to an overly-conservative approach to a race in which he only had to finish in the top five, he pushed on. Hard.

What happened during the next 24 laps underlined just how quick Hamilton was. While Rosberg held a small, but decisive, advantage through practice and qualifying, on race pace Hamilton was once again stunningly fast. Even with concerns about overworking the tyres and the brakes, he whittled away at Rosberg's advantage.

By the end of lap 34, the gap was down to five-and-a-half seconds. By lap 39, it was just under four. By lap 43, three seconds. His progress was inexorable and doubtless irritated Rosberg, who at one point requested that the team stop giving him updates about the gap to his title rival.

When Rosberg pitted at the end of lap 50, the gap was down to two seconds. There was no repeat of the delay in responding, and Hamilton dived into the reprofiled pit-entry on the following lap. Given the toll taken on his tyres closing that gap, he was never going to be in a position to jump his team-mate through this pitstop sequence, but he could get damned close.

Hamilton's pitstop was a couple of tenths faster, and in total he spent four tenths of a second less in the pitlane than Rosberg. While his in-lap was around a quarter of a second faster, Hamilton wasn't able to jump Rosberg, but he went hard on his out-lap, which was 1.4s quicker. By the end of lap 53, he was in the DRS zone and able to use the adjustable rear wing to close on Rosberg.

For a few laps, it seemed inevitable that Rosberg would have to yield. After all, in the three races that preceded Interlagos at Austin, Sochi and Suzuka, he had lost out in wheel-to-wheel combat with Hamilton every single time.

But Rosberg had spent much of the weekend talking about what he had got wrong at Austin and ensured that he did not miss a beat. This time, he would not yield. And for the final 18 laps the irresistible force that was Hamilton was met with the immovable object that Rosberg had become.

Rosberg had to make sure he was out of Hamilton's reach at key points © LAT

Inevitably, Rosberg was adamant that he was controlling the race, and in a way he was. But he insisted that he had not been too conservative and, while he did keep Hamilton just out of reach, the reality is that he did not have the speed to keep his pursuer out of DRS range. That meant that he had no margin for error, no cushion should a wayward backmarker or a mistake cost him momentum.

"The important thing was to maintain the gap so that he didn't have the opportunity to overtake," said Rosberg. "So from that point of view, it all worked out fine. Ideally, he should be 20 seconds behind! But that's not going to happen often because he's a great driver and the level is extremely high.

"At every race this year, bar a couple, we've always been together and it's probably always going to be like that."

Rosberg's performance can be looked at from two diametrically opposed perspectives.

The first is that this was another race during which he did not have the legs of his team-mate and that he would not have won without Hamilton's spin.

The second is that, having earned the advantage of pole position through pure pace, he then held off a quicker driver and converted a likely defeat into victory.

It's the latter view that holds water.

Consider the intensity of the pressure on Rosberg's shoulders. He had not won a race since the German GP in July, he had watched Hamilton win five consecutive races, four of which Rosberg had been in a potential position to win before either his own error or being overtaken.

Rosberg was determined to avoid another defeat © LAT

The German doesn't like talking about momentum, and for good reason given that everything had been going Hamilton's way in recent races.

It would have been so easy to crumble, to accept that he had been beaten by the better driver. But Rosberg has impressed time and time again this year by picking himself up, dusting himself down and raising his game. What happened during the race at Interlagos was the physical manifestation of that.

"It was a great weekend," he said. "Austin was a tough day for me on Sunday, so it was important for me to improve because I didn't do a good enough job in the race in Austin.

"Today, I managed to do that. I learned from Austin and did better so that's a big step in the right direction. It's one race too late, but there's still all to play for.

"I was confident, definitely, because in the first stint I could see that I could control the gap and could just make sure that Lewis didn't come into the region where he could launch an attack. So from that point of view, I was very confident that I could keep on controlling the gap for the whole race.

"When Lewis had the spin and was further behind, I saved more tyres than I normally would have done so I could make sure that at the end of the stint I had enough. It was so critical on tyres today and that worked really well."

For Rosberg to keep Hamilton out of reach, the equation was simple. He was vulnerable in the two DRS zones, located on the main straight and on the run down to the Turn 4, Descida do Lago, left-hander.

Hamilton would have a clear straightline speed advantage in both of those parts of the track, but Rosberg knew that he was safe provided he was able to continue to capitalise on having a clear road ahead of him in the middle sector.

Hamilton still felt he had proved a point with his performance in Brazil © XPB

With the driver ahead in an identical car, and the aerodynamic disadvantage of following another through the twisty middle stages of the track holding him back, Hamilton needed an error from Rosberg to get within striking distance. That chance never came, but Hamilton was delighted at the way he stalked his rival.

"People, over the years, have reported how I used tyres and all that sort of stuff, but today shows that I utilised my tyres better than anyone I've raced and I've utilised them more today than Nico.

"He was in front and I was always behind, I was always in his dirty air, scrubbing the life out of the tyres but still playing with him. Then, when he pitted, I had extra pace.

"So hopefully people can see that and that there are a lot of positives."

The positives could not be more clear. For Rosberg to take his fifth win of the season, he needed to do it against the run of play both on race pace and recent history. While Hamilton did make an error, there was no disputing the fact that he had a speed advantage.

The reward is to head to the season-ending Abu Dhabi GP knowing that a repeat performance is all he needs to seal one of the hardest-fought world championships of this century.

But Rosberg has done what he has always done in 2014, hung in there and landed a heavy punch just when he looked down and out. That will make him a dangerous foe in Abu Dhabi in two weeks.

After all, strange things happen in championship deciders. Mercedes has already broken the record for one-twos in a season with its 11th, and making it a dozen will guarantee Hamilton that second crown.

Rosberg knows he needs some fortune on his side to ensure that even if he does win in the Middle East, Hamilton does not take that second place.

It's probably a big ask to expect that kind of help. Then again, after run of races during which he has done the cracking, it's no wonder that Rosberg was so pleased to see his arch-rival making the mistake in the race this time.