Gary Anderson predicts F1's pecking order

It's too early to start drawing any definitive conclusions on the relative performance of Formula 1's 2014 cars. But by taking the fastest lap achieved by each car during last week's four-day Bahrain test, it's possible to get a few clues as to who looks hot and who doesn't.

As usual, I've converted the figures into a percentage deficit to the fastest time (Nico Rosberg's final-day lap of 1m33.283s). This allows you to make comparisons not just on one circuit, but also over varying lap lengths and with historical data.

FASTEST TIMES IN BAHRAIN (AS PERCENTAGE)

    Team-Engine             Deficit Tyre
 1. Mercedes                        Soft
 2. McLaren-Mercedes        +1.795% Soft*
 3. Force India-Mercedes    +3.390% Soft
 4. Ferrari                 +3.466% Soft
 5. Williams-Mercedes       +4.055% Soft
 6. Sauber-Ferrari          +4.178% Soft
 7. Lotus-Renault           +5.815% Soft
 8. Toro Rosso-Renault      +6.101% Soft
 9. Red Bull-Renault        +6.597% Medium
10. Caterham-Renault        +7.045% Soft
11. Marussia-Ferrari        +9.892% Winter medium

*As Kevin Magnussen's fastest McLaren time was set on supersoft rubber, Jenson Button's final-day lap on softs, just 0.057s slower, has been used. This was effectively a faster lap as it was on slower rubber.

Last year, the average lap-time performance step between each compound of tyre was around 0.4 seconds. I will use that figure rather than the specific differences from Bahrain, which did vary from team to team.

So taking the above, and equalising for the different tyre compounds that we actually know about, we now have:

    Team-Engine           Deficit
 1. Mercedes
 2. McLaren-Mercedes      +1.795%
 3. Force India-Mercedes  +3.390%
 4. Ferrari               +3.466%
 5. Williams-Mercedes     +4.055%
 6. Sauber-Ferrari        +4.606%
 7. Lotus-Renault         +5.815%
 8. Toro Rosso-Renault    +6.101%
 9. Red Bull-Renault      +6.597%
 Qualifying time cut off. +7.000%
10. Caterham-Renault      +7.045%
11. Marussia-Ferrari      +9.892%

Fuel load makes a big difference to lap time, roughly 0.33 seconds per 10kg. But with the cars limited to a maximum of 100kg, between a low-fuel run of 10kg and a race-start fuel load of 100kg there should only be a maximum difference of three seconds - or, based on Mercedes' fastest time, 3.216 per cent.

Mercedes' advantage seems real © LAT

So is everyone other than Mercedes sandbagging and running their cars with loads more fuel? I don't think so.

I believe that the works Mercedes team and engine group are working as one and they have a substantial advantage when it comes to maximising the efficiency of the new-for-2014 1.6-litre turbocharged V6 powertrain.

Yes, the others will close that gap as they learn more about optimising the powertrain performance but there are only four more days of testing before Friday practice for the Australian Grand Prix and Mercedes appears to have a rather large head start.

If reliability is on its side, Mercedes could run away with quite a few of the early races.

For reference, at the end of last season my team comparison - based on the fastest lap by either driver in each team over each race weekend, which is then converted into a percentage and averaged out over the season - produced this ranking:

    Team-Engine          Deficit
 1. Red Bull-Renault
 2. Mercedes             +0.191%
 3. Ferrari              +0.587%
 4. Lotus-Renault        +0.631%
 5. McLaren-Mercedes     +1.202%
 6. Toro Rosso-Ferrari   +1.311%
 7. Sauber-Ferrari       +1.325%
 8. Force India-Mercedes +1.374%
 9. Williams-Renault     +2.098%
10. Caterham-Renault     +3.797%
11. Marussia-Cosworth    +4.003%

These percentages show that the teams were a lot closer. It was always expected that the new regulations would spread the grid out, but I didn't expect it to have such a big effect.

On long runs, Mercedes seemed to be the only team to go about them in a professional manner. But I was a little surprised by the lap times.

If you do a 1m33.283s on low fuel, then add on three seconds for a full fuel tank you get a 1m36.283. Factor in fuel and tyre saving and you could make that a 1m38s, but they were mostly in the 1m40s.

In qualifying, the 100kg maximum fuel load does not come into play but the 100kg-per-hour maximum fuel flow will influence performance. As long as you drive within that, you can use as much engine performance as you have.

But it seems that, in race trim, there is a bit of fuel saving going on. Listening to the engine noise at Jerez on the longer runs the Mercedes really does sound different to when it's on the shorter runs so engine strategy is going to play a big part in racing in 2014.

1st MERCEDES

Mercedes has everything it needs to be at the front: facilities, personnel, budget and, most of all, commitment. It's one of only two real works teams, in that it builds the chassis and the engine, so can ensure a very close relationship when it comes to installation detail.

With these now regulations, this is vitally important. Its driver line-up is second to none and with both drivers at more or less the same point in their careers and wanting the same thing - wins - we could see some fireworks before the season is over.

2nd McLAREN

McLaren looks like Mercedes' nearest rival © LAT

There is no question McLaren has made significant progress since last season. You always learn more from a bad season than from a good one.

The car looks good, is very well-detailed, and with a bit of 'out of the box' thinking on the rear suspension blockers - which help the diffuser - it has shown the confidence to do something different.

Magnussen looks a strong signing and wrings the car neck and hopefully it will suit Button's driving style.

3rd FORCE INDIA

My old team started research on the 2014 car as early, if not earlier, than any other team. It cost it a few points at the end of last year but the rewards will be reaped in 2014.

The car looks good on track and the team is very committed to moving forward, as it has shown by signing Nico Hulkenberg, one of the best drivers out there. Team-mate Sergio Perez has a bit to prove, but is quick. He needs to calm down and be more consistent and hopefully he will do so to fit in with his new team.

4th FERRARI

The Ferrari looks reasonable on track but I don't believe it has the grip of the Mercedes or McLaren. The car has been running reasonably reliably, with most of the stoppages resulting in short delays.

The next test, which starts in Bahrain on Thursday, will be important for Ferrari. The team will know there is a need for aerodynamic developments to arrive and quickly.

I'm not a great believer in the low nose because if you don't have the mass airflow through the front axle area then the underfloor area does not respond in the same way.

5th WILLIAMS

Like McLaren, Williams learned a lot last year and bringing in Pat Symonds as chief technical officer was a very positive move. Pat has a wealth of experience and has seen most things in F1 so will be a very important stabilising influence on a team that has underperformed for too long.

Williams could be a dark horse © LAT

The car looks good on the circuit, with very good front-end grip. But I'm a little bit worried it will be too aggressive on its rear tyres.

In Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa, Williams has a good mix of experience and youth. Neither will give an inch and are real racers and Massa will thrive now he has escaped being a number two at Ferrari.

6th SAUBER

Sauber has several developments coming before Melbourne, although a significant part of its aerodynamic package did run in Bahrain.

Looking at the car on circuit, the team needs to make some serious progress. Under braking, the car is suffering from rear brake-balance instability and then a lot of understeer. This could be dialled out, but at the moment Sauber looks a long way off.

7th LOTUS

Bahrain was Lotus's first serious running so it's a little early to say too much. But it seems that the team is battling Renault's problems like the other three teams using the French engines.

Progress was made on the final day, but in reality the team is four days behind everyone else.

8th TORO ROSSO

The switch from Ferrari to Renault engines was meant to be a dream move to allow closer collaboration with sister team Red Bull, but it has turned into more of a nightmare.

The car looks well-balanced on the circuit, but who knows what will happen when it runs with higher torque outputs as this can change everything. Realistically, all Toro Rosso can do is keep at it and let Red Bull put the necessary pressure on Renault to solve its problems.

9th RED BULL

Red Bull has suffered problems both with the Renault powertrain, its installation and its own aggressive package. This means that F1's dominant force of recent seasons has struggled in testing so far.

Red Bull's potential is yet to be seen © LAT

We have not seen anything of the car's potential performance and with eight days of testing gone this will hurt.

How long will it take to recover? For a team with the structure of Red Bull, it should be able to get on top of it quickly as long as the finger pointing doesn't start and lead to a loss of focus.

Something to remember is that Red Bull changed from Ferrari engines to Renault in 2007 because the units were easier to cool and used less fuel so were more efficient. Now the Renault seems to need more of both so they may just have to suffer a little of what the others suffered over the past few years.

The worry for Daniel Ricciardo must be whether he has joined a frontrunning team at the wrong time?

10th CATERHAM

I'm not a fan of Caterham's interpretation of the nose requirements. The car doesn't appear to have much grip or consistency, but it's still early days.

This year, Caterham needs to make progress and move at least closer to the teams in front. It has the facilities, personnel and the resources to achieve this. And Tony Fernandes has already underlined that if things don't improve his enthusiasm is not without its limits.

11th MARUSSIA

Marussia had a very troubled test in Bahrain. I'm afraid that for the small teams, the added complexity of the new engines is going to be a nightmare.

POWERTRAINS

Engines will be the area that will separate the grid, at least for the early races. With the engines being homologated on February 28, there is very little time left to address any hardware problems.

But most of the current problems appear to be software-related. These can be solved, but it will take time.

1st MERCEDES

1147 laps, 6207km by four teams. 1551kms per team

Ferrari is still unsure about where it stands © LAT

All the Mercedes teams were able to run the powertrain at a reasonable performance level and in most cases any time lost was more down to the teams themselves as opposed to the engine.

But the Mercedes wasn't completely without problems and even the works team had a few stoppages. So it is not completely out of the woods.

2nd FERRARI

556 laps, 3009km by three teams. 1003km per team

The works team were a bit like Mercedes, with some small glitches that stopped the car on the circuit when the powertrain cut out because of some parameter or other going out of its working window.

In general it ran well but doesn't quite seem to have the ultimate performance that we are seeing from Mercedes.

3rd RENAULT

614 laps, 3323km by four teams, 830km per team.

Renault has a lot of work to do. None of its teams are anywhere near able to run at a competitive performance level. There seem to be various reasons for this and now the teams and Renault seem to be throwing stones at each other.

They need to all work together to get over these problems or they will get left behind and find it very difficult to catch up.