Formula 1's calendar calamity

Two major political events, held a day apart earlier this week, have the potential to radically influence future Formula 1 calendars. These events are, of course, the French election - which resulted in Francois Hollande coming to power - and the inauguration of Russia's returning president Vladimir Putin.

Both countries have aspirations to be part of F1 within the next two years, with each relying heavily upon political support to do so. Yet, where just a month or so ago both countries' grands prix seemed shoo-ins, they this week joined F1's endangered events - and thus could affect F1's future profitability, and therefore the planned Singapore Stock Exchange Initial Purchase Offer of F1 stock.

Sources in the current Concorde Agreement negotiating loop advise that F1 tsar Bernie Ecclestone aims to make 20 grands prix per season the standard - up from the present 17 - with an option, subject to team agreement, taking the number to 24 (from the present maximum of 20).

This makes perfect sense from a commercial rights perspective, for a number of circuits have recently renegotiated their hosting fees (downwards), while those up for renewal have indicated they will push for reductions. Thus, in order to boost F1's race fee revenues, the only other option faced by Ecclestone and co is to increase the number of races. This also provides a better sell when it comes to TV contracts.

That said, a team principal who recently admitted to having signed the heads of agreement 'draft' 2013-20 Concorde document indicated that only 20 races had been discussed, but admitted that the "fine print is still someway off".

Either way the failure of Russia or France to make it onto the calendar holds serious repercussions, for it removes two potential races - fully 10 per cent - with little hope of slotting replacements into the schedule within two years unless Turkey is offered a return and Korea granted a reprieve.

So, what has gone wrong?

Ecclestone has agreed a deal for a Russian GP © XPB

Taking Russia first, it seems the entire event hung on the vision of one man, who persuaded the Sochi Winter Olympics Committee that he had found the perfect legacy project for the facility currently being built at great cost on the Black Sea coast.

However, said gentleman - Sergeyevich Vorobyev - then also the president of the FIA-affiliated Russian Federation for Automobile Sport and Touring and a former amateur race driver, passed away on March 15 in Germany, leaving the project in tatters. So much so, in fact, that Olympic journalists who last month visited Sochi to follow up on progress at the site were unable to make contact with grand prix personnel.

Interestingly, a report compiled following a visit to Sochi by the British Olympic Committee in March makes no reference to the grand prix, although the delegation visited every individual sports facility, as well as hotels and arenas.

Vorobyev was the man who persuaded Ecclestone of his earnestness to stage a race for the six years commencing in 2014. He also had the support of Putin, then Russian prime minister, who, according to sources, in turn 'instructed' four Russian companies - Lukoil (known in Europe for its products and young driver development programme), Rostechnologii (an industrial group comprising 30 companies, including Lada), Bazovyi Element (an investment company owed by an oligarch with automotive interests) and mobile operator Megafon, once sponsor of the Renault F1 team - to provide the financial guarantees demanded by Ecclestone. Thus, as always, Mr E is covered, certainly in the short term...

However, since Putin's term as PM came to a planned end in December, Russia has effectively had no government and therefore no sports ministry, with two separate sources advising a project that has reached political stalemate. Plus, it is a matter of record that recently Putin - and therefore state structures - have had bigger headaches than the promotion of a grand prix two years hence, particularly when the country's sporting priorities are the Winter Olympics followed by football.

Russia's new cabinet is expected to be named next week, and thus the identity of the incoming sports minister should be revealed, but his first priority is likely to be progress on the Sochi site, with F1 taking a backseat until the main event is done and dusted. It seems that the minister will have enough on his plate even without the distractions of motor racing, for which approximately $125m had been set aside over and above the cost of the Olympics - which is said to have spiralled well over budget, some say to three times the original estimate of $11bn.

Guess which sport will draw the short straw if push comes to shove?

However, assuming all is not lost, who could drive the project forwards? Various names are in the frame, but, of course, given that Ecclestone's contract was with Vorobyev, the agreement of F1's supremo is very much required.

So far Russia's world championship racing interest has been limited to the WTCC © XPB

The husband and wife partnership of Igor Ermilin and Anastasia Bendikova, who run the Russian Race of Stars and are well acquainted with Ecclestone, are said to be in the frame, as is Oksana Kosatchenko, better known as the lady without whose sterling management efforts Vitaly Petrov would likely still be pedalling Ladas in Russia, and whose company Manuskript promoted the Russian Touring Car Championship. She, like the Ermilins, is politically well-connected, and is obviously in Ecclestone's orbit. That said, Kosatchenko has consistently refused to be drawn on the subject.

Strangely, despite over a month having passed since his passing, Vorobyev is still listed on the FIA website as being president of RFAST. However, the website lists numerous affiliated Russian clubs, including the Russian Automobile Federation, which holds the FIA's sporting franchise for the country, and whose president, General Viktor Kiryanov, formerly Deputy Minister of the Interior Ministry, received a major FIA road-safety award in 2010.

Thus, the way things stood, RAF would have applied for a grand prix date on behalf of an opposition federation, which sources suggest would have made for rather fraught negotiations, particularly given the personalities involved. For this reason alone the Sochi grand prix project under Vorobyev was always doubtful - without even factoring-in dependence on the Olympics, which recently lost the support of diamond firm Alrosa and gas giant Gazprom, into the equation.

Should Sochi fall into the (Black) sea and Russia remain keen on F1, Moscow could offer an alternative, although massive upgrading of the Moscow Raceway's infrastructure would be required in order to bring the newly-completed facility up to grand prix standard.

Situated 49 miles south of Moscow between the villages of Sheludkovo and Fedyukovo, the circuit is expected to open next month ahead of a World Series by Renault event in mid-July, followed by a World Superbike Championship round six weeks later and an FIA GT1 World Championship race a month after that.

The 2.534-mile, Hermann Tilke-designed track complies fully with F1 safety standards, although it currently lacks sufficient grandstands and other amenities to do justice to a world championship grand prix, but still the facility is further advanced than Sochi. It is also a private initiative - for what that's worth in Russia - and thus less susceptible to political pressure.

Formula Renault 3.5 is due to visit Moscow Raceway later this year © LAT

Firstly, however, Moscow Raceway needs to successfully stage its maiden events, while the responsible minister needs time to get his feet under the sports desk and sort pressing Olympic issues. It's unlikely then, that any decision to stick with Sochi, go with Moscow Raceway or scrap the Russian Grand Prix will be made before the end of this year, leaving precious little time ahead of the race's inaugural 2014 slot.

"Mr Ecclestone is fully aware of that, and I can tell you he is worried," said a source with inside information.

The issue in France is rather more party-political, and is driven by Hollande's election success over Nicolas Sarkozy - whose prime minister Francois Fillon backed a French Grand Prix at the Ecclestone family trust-owned Paul Ricard circuit - in last Sunday's national elections, with the incoming socialist government hardly likely to go with a race in a centre-right hothouse.

Although Ecclestone a fortnight ago suggested "the deal is done", sources in France are adamant that nothing was signed, and that Ecclestone's comment was a ploy aimed at pushing the incumbent government to sign before the elections. Allegedly the two parties were still squabbling over $2m (Ecclestone demanded $22m, while the promoters were prepared to go to $20m) plus various other issues when France went to the polls, leaving the deal in limbo - some say dead.

That does not though, mean that all is lost for France - and by extension, for Spa-Francorchamps, which was hopeful of entering into a rotational deal with Ecclestone as a means of salvaging its race - for the new government is likely to be open to a return to Magny-Cours, situated in the staunchly left-wing Nevers region, and once the pet project of sitting socialist MP, President Francois Mitterand, who hailed from the area.

Whether F1 will be keen to return to a circuit situated in the middle of nowhere (although Korea now takes first prize in this regard) is open to question, as is the circuit's ability to turn a profit, being situated as it is in a sparsely-populated region - something that led to its demise in the first place.

Where the Sarkozy/Fillon government would likely have extended (tacit) financial support and political backing for the race, the socialists are unlikely to be as obliging - even at Magny-Cours - particularly given F1's commercial structures and Hollande's vowed intention to blitz banks and financial institutions. However, as with Russia, a grand prix is hardly top of the priority list for the incoming cabinet and its newly appointed ministers, so no movement is expected for some time.

So, with two of F1's planned 2014 venues in doubt, plus squabbles blighting the Austin (USA) project and Korea likely to exit after this year following two embarrassing events, the sport will be hard pushed to maintain a 20-race calendar into the future - let alone a 24-round championship.