F1 history's warning for Mercedes

Pre-season testing is a time of uncertainty, extrapolation and mystery. You can find conviction in the predictable utterances from teams stressing the length of the season to come and that nothing is won or lost in testing.

But even though not a single championship point is given out for it, testing is the foundation upon which a season is built. And history suggests that if you start behind, more likely than not you will stay there.

After the first test there were fears Mercedes would start the season struggling to match pacesetter Ferrari, and team boss Toto Wolff admitted that, should it be necessary to change the aerodynamic concept of the car, "it is a matter of months" to do that. The major Mercedes upgrade package for the second test has eased many of those fears, but if the champion team or anyone else starts off behind they will face an uphill struggle.

Logically, since the season plays out over 21 race weekends, it shouldn't be such a problem if a team is behind where it should be for a proportion of them. If it takes a few races to close the gap, that's only a small amount of ground lost.

But the past three decades of F1 suggest that if you start by playing catch-up, it's a race you're not likely to win.

So let's say Mercedes did need to make a major change in aerodynamic concept, something the team currently does not accept it has to do. But if it did, that takes us to May's Spanish Grand Prix, the fifth race of the season. Should Mercedes be behind not just on pace but also points after four races, the history books would not be on its side.

In the past 30 seasons, stretching back to 1989, the team leading the constructors' championship after four races has won the title on 25 occasions - 83% of the time. In the drivers' championship, the hit rate is slightly lower: 21 in 30 - or 70%.

The past isn't necessarily a powerful predictor of the future, and every situation is different. But what makes it difficult to catch up is similar whatever year you're in, car you're working with or opposition you face. While being ahead provides its own pressure - with all the psychological challenges of having your fate in your own grasp and the dangers of drifting into thinking more about what you risk losing than the job in hand - chasing leaves little margin for error.

Mercedes will already have taken a hit if aerodynamic changes are required, as the early running in this week's test suggests. Development work for early-season packages will already be well advanced - it's not just a question of modifying the current car - so there will also be an impact on parts due to be introduced down the line. There would be a clear impact on development rate.

The mere fact of trying to make gains can also have an impact on the decision-making process on track. When you have points in the bag, it's easier to allow discretion to be the better part of valour. The classic example from this century was the 2005 European Grand Prix at the Nurburgring (above), where McLaren driver Kimi Raikkonen flat-spotted his front-right tyre while lapping Jacques Villeneuve's Sauber and the team gambled on making it to the end.

If Mercedes was in trouble, the case of Red Bull in 2010 would give it some encouragement

While tyre changes were banned that year, it was permissible to change a damaged one and, had Raikkonen been 22 points ahead of title rival Fernando Alonso rather than the same margin behind (after just six races), then the option would have been there to stop and take a safe minor points finish rather than gamble on holding onto victory and suffering a failure on the last lap. Even if you've got a fast car, as McLaren did then - albeit not the most reliable one - when you're trying to make gains you have to be more aggressive. That can mean greater reward, but in exchange for greater risk.

The famous Brawn 'domination' of 2009 is another classic example. Jenson Button won six races that season, spread over the first seven of the year, on his way to the championship. Over the remaining 10, he finished on the podium just twice yet won the championship with a race to spare. The Red Bull was the faster car over the season, but Brawn's fast start gave it a decisive advantage.

The five cases where the constructors' championship has been won by a team not leading after the opening quartet of races were either unusual circumstances or very tight battles. In 1994 Williams struggled early on, sorted an aerodynamic stall problem and then overcame Benetton - but that was assisted by two disqualifications and a two-race ban for Michael Schumacher.

The following year, Ferrari was unexpectedly ahead after four races, thanks to the soon-to-be-dominant Benetton of Schumacher having not scored points for its Brazilian GP win due to fuel irregularities and Schumacher's San Marino GP shunt. The points situation soon changed, and Ferrari ended the year a distant third behind Benetton and Williams.

In 2003, Ferrari overcame McLaren after a battle of its speed versus its rival's consistency, while in '10 Red Bull's early fragility let McLaren take an early lead before the tables were turned.

If Mercedes was in trouble, that 2010 case would give it some encouragement. Last year, Ferrari had the better of the early stages in terms of performance and led the constructors' table after four rounds (though Mercedes ace Lewis Hamilton led the drivers' standings). But Mercedes eventually came on strong at the end of the year, so it has a proven record of being able to thrive under such pressure.

This also illustrates that the reaction can be different depending on the context. Right now, Ferrari is looking good but there's still no guarantee it will really be ahead in Australia. It doesn't have the reassurances of five years of glory to fall back on, so it will be a test of the team's mettle if it has to be playing catch up - especially if Red Bull-Honda is also in the mix.

Based on last season, during which Mercedes and Ferrari took turns to surge ahead, it's going to be another classic this year

When it comes to the development war and playing catch-up, a significant factor is exactly what you're struggling with. If it's just a question of adding pace - which usually means downforce or engine performance - to a functioning package, that's ostensibly simple. But it means you must out-develop your rivals.

It's also important to note that the rate of development is rarely linear. There will be periods where it levels and others where it might leap forward. What decides where you end up on track is how your development curve intersects with those of your opponents.

If there's a clear problem, provided you understand the causes, symptoms and cure - which isn't always easy - and it's not something fundamental to the concept of the car, then it's possible to make a big leap forward. In 2011 McLaren struggled badly in pre-season testing with its complicated exhaust system, dubbed the "octopus" externally, but appeared for the first race of the season with a vastly improved version. Broadly speaking, McLaren had followed Red Bull's approach, but it worked and Hamilton was back to winning ways three races in.

That was a fast turnaround, and if you're dealing with complex aerodynamic problems related to bodywork surfaces it can be more challenging. And if you have to take a step backwards and work on a new concept, that costs you. If you're up against a rival that is rolling along smoothly, adding performance onto a well-sorted package, that compounds the disadvantage.

Mercedes has already given Ferrari something to think about by deploying a major update, which it describes as its Melbourne package. We won't know until the end of the test how Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull stack up pre-season, but it could boost Mercedes. But who knows what Ferrari might have planned for Melbourne?

This is a snapshot into the intensity of the F1 development war. Based on last season, during which Mercedes and Ferrari took turns to surge ahead almost on a race-by-race basis for a significant part of the campaign, it's going to be another classic this year.

But if either starts off behind, history warns that it could be a long, hard season.