Can Verstappen save the 2019 F1 season?

So who expected that result, then? Mercedes coming away from the Spanish Grand Prix with a one-two after dominating the race from another front-row lockout?

The answer to that question is... most people, with the exception of those at Ferrari and elsewhere in Italy! To make matters worse, Max Verstappen in his Red Bull nipped into third on the first lap and drove a great race to beat the Ferraris to the final step of the podium - further increasing the Scuderia's points deficit.

In a season everyone hoped would produce battle after battle, increasingly it seems that Verstappen and Red Bull are the only forces with the potential to inject the drama we're all hoping for.

Another processional Spanish GP reminds us all of how much F1 needs Verstappen fighting for wins every week. The race was typical of one where the track doesn't really offer any overtaking potential. The high-speed Campsa right-hander onto the back straight and the medium-speed turn onto the start/finish means that if you're too close behind the car you're chasing, you get understeer. In this situation, even the dreaded DRS isn't powerful enough.

I don't think we've seen a significant difference in the racing with this year's aerodynamic changes, but this is the type of problematic race that needs to be studied before defining the regulations for 2021. Otherwise, yes, the cars will look different and it will cost everyone a lot of money, but the inherent problems will remain.

And on top of that, Mercedes had a perfect weekend with first and second places for Lewis Hamiton and Valtteri Bottas and the fastest lap. That's another 44 constructors' championship points in the kitty, and for any team that's what matters.

But before Verstappen and Red Bull can do anything about Mercedes, they need to close the gap. Looking at the performance in detail, the Mercedes was very good through the final sector of the lap - Turns 10-16. This is the slower part of the Barcelona circuit.

Although the Mercedes looked a little tail-happy on corner exit, it was fast. The Ferrari looked nice to drive but with a little understeer - while to compound Ferrari's problems, Pirelli lowered the minimum tyre pressures from 20.5 to 19.5psi on Friday night. This will give more rear grip, mitigating the Mercedes traction problem and compounding the Ferrari understeer struggles.

In qualifying, the Mercedes was a rocketship through this section - about six-tenths faster than Ferrari. Now that's a lot in a 25-second section of track. I'm into percentages and that's 2.4% faster in that section, while overall the Ferrari was at 1.148% off the pace of Mercedes. So the Ferrari was stronger on other parts of the track, but since you spend a lot more time in slow corners than fast corners, if you want to gain time it's in the slow stuff that you need to be efficient.

These are the actual best sector-three times from qualifying for the top three teams:

1 Bottas, 25.878s
2 Hamilton, 26.112s
3 Verstappen, 26.322s
4 Gasly, 26.358s
5 Leclerc, 26.513s
6 Vettel, 26.611s

Given Ferrari dominated at the pre-season tests at Barcelona, how has this situation come about? Yes, in testing there is always a bit of sandbagging or glory runs but normally this doesn't happen with teams that are going into a season to challenge for a championship. At some point in the season that sort of thing always turns around and bites you. Is that what's happening to Ferrari now?

A few years ago, when Ferrari outpaced Mercedes in Monaco, it was probably the long wheelbase that hurt the silver cars in the slow corners. Mercedes stuck with it and believed that the extra downforce produced from the increased underfloor surface area was worth the low-speed corner problem.

Ferrari more or less did the same laptime at the weekend as in testing, so it just shows how much Mercedes has improved

By believing enough in its concept, Mercedes has now found other solutions to the low-speed problem. In fact, as the times above show, Mercedes is actually better than the Red Bull, which with its high rake used to be the best in the slow corners.

If that trend of performance in slow corners continues then Monaco should be a walk in the principality for Hamilton and Bottas. Pre-season hopes that this would be a Red Bull weekend are looking much less promising now.

Talking of Red Bull-Honda, the big question is whether it is now the one that will take the fight to Mercedes. The signs are promising, with improvements on the chassis and power unit side, while we know Verstappen is right up there with the best - but to consistently nip at the heels of Mercedes, more needs to come.

Just taking a quick look at the best time each team did in pre-season Barcelona testing compared with the best time over the actual race weekend gives us some indication of who has improved and who hasn't. The tyre everyone used in testing to set their best times was the C5, while over the race weekend it was the C3. Yes, that is different but it is different for everyone, as is the track grip. But again that will be the same for all, so you don't have to adjust for it.

The only caveat to add to all this is that Bottas's pole lap was stunning - even he couldn't get anywhere near the same time again - so that means everyone else is a little further behind both on time and percentage. Ferrari more or less did the same laptime at the weekend as in testing, so if you use that as a reference it just shows how much Mercedes has improved. I've ranked them in race weekend performance order.

Performance swing since testing

If we compare the Barcelona weekend to the average performance percentage after five races, this gives us a clue as to whose Barcelona developments have worked and whose need a little bit more work before they get the best out of them. Again, we need to remember that Bottas's pole lap was exceptional, so the race weekend deficit to the other teams is a little bigger than we might normally see.

Barcelona vs season so far

So, taking that time difference between what each team did in testing and what they achieved during the race weekend and putting that into improvement (or not) order:

Test to race pace difference

For most, it doesn't make good reading, Mercedes is the biggest improver with Red Bull hanging onto its shirt tails. Haas made a small improvement and Ferrari has more or less stood still.

From there on down, it's varying degrees of disappointment. For Williams, especially, this will be disappointing - it arrived at testing late, didn't do much running and still managed to go slower than in testing by a large margin 10 weeks later.

The race didn't get any better for Ferrari. If you look at half race distance on lap 33, the closest Ferrari to the leading Mercedes was 23 seconds behind, which is seven-tenths slower per lap.

Compare that with qualifying, when it was eight-tenths, and in reality Ferrari just isn't fast enough.

On top of that, its pit strategy calls seem lost. Decisions on the pitwall regarding team orders are just too slow. To make things even worse, Mercedes wasn't being pushed, so how much did it have left in its pocket?

The pressure in Maranello will be ramping up. After pre-season testing the big bosses, as did all of us, said this was the season to win the championship. If that's going to happen Ferrari had better find something very soon otherwise it won't even be able to see the red lights on the Mercedes' rear wings flashing.

Monaco is always a bit more of a lottery. The walls require the utmost respect and you can pay a big price for a small mistake. But if the Silver Arrows keep it neat and tidy I don't see Ferrari being the threat we all hoped.

It could be down to Red Bull and Verstappen to keep Mercedes honest. As we know, Max is a racer and will go for it. And that could be the best hope for excitement, not just for Monaco, but for the rest of the season.