Can Red Bull really mix it at the front?

It's fair to say Red Bull has so far been nowhere close to where anyone expected it to be heading into this new Formula 1 season. OK, Max Verstappen scored a heroic podium in mixed conditions in China, but the RB13 has still been way off the pace set by Mercedes and Ferrari in 'normal' conditions.

Despite exuding confidence after the first week of pre-season testing, Red Bull ultimately struggled to get the RB13 working properly during week two of Barcelona running, and those difficulties continued through the first two races of 2017.

Verstappen qualified 1.297 seconds short of pole position in Australia; team-mate Daniel Ricciardo was 1.355s off in China. Both drivers seemed puzzled. They reported being happy with the way the car handled, but the lap time just wasn't there. Not enough downforce or not enough power? "A bit of both," said Verstappen.

They came to Bahrain not expecting much, both suggesting Red Bull is not yet sure how to dig itself out of this unexpected competitive slump and pose the sort of threat to Mercedes and Ferrari that its late-2016 form indicated it would.

Red Bull is meant to be the aerodynamic king among Formula 1 teams, but Ricciardo suggested recent consecutive campaigns characterised by sluggish starts and gradual improvement point to a changing of the guard. In the V6 hybrid era, Red Bull has been knocked from its perch.

It's often said that unexpected things can happen in Formula 1, but it's rare that competitive turnarounds happen overnight. Those are the result of long, hard slogs. Red Bull has talked about damage limitation until making a big development push ahead of May's Spanish Grand Prix, and that the Renault engine will lack potency until at least then too.

Red Bull has not had much time to get its affairs in order since last Sunday's race at Shanghai; the RB13 has no substantial updates on it, the engine is unchanged, and yet after the first day of practice for the Bahrain Grand Prix, Red Bull now looks suddenly and unexpectedly right in the mix at the front of the field.

PURE PACE RANKING

1. Ferrari (Vettel) 1m31.310s
2. Mercedes (Bottas) 1m31.351s
3. Red Bull (Ricciardo) 1m31.376s
4. Renault (Hulkenberg) 1m31.883s
5. Williams (Massa) 1m32.079s
6. Haas (Grosjean) 1m32.505s
7. Toro Rosso (Kvyat) 1m32.707s
8. Force India (Ocon) 1m32.875s
9. McLaren (Alonso) 1m32.897s
10. Sauber (Ericsson) 1m33.944s

Ricciardo managed to lap on the same tenth as the leading Ferrari and Mercedes drivers in Friday's second session around the Sakhir circuit, as less than three tenths covered the top five cars.

Sebastian Vettel's Ferrari ultimately topped both sessions (the first held in unrepresentatively hot conditions), but Ricciardo was second fastest and within four tenths of the pace in FP1 too. These efforts represent the first time Red Bull has got within half a second of the pace in any dry practice session held so far in 2017.

The caveat is that Ricciardo produced the cleanest lap among all the frontrunning drivers, while Chinese GP winner Lewis Hamilton and Ferrari's Kimi Raikkonen weren't able to deliver when their Pirelli tyres were at their freshest.

Hamilton abandoned his first effort after an oversteer moment exiting Turn 1. He then set the only sub-29s first sector on his next tour, before abandoning the lap after encountering Nico Hulkenberg's slow-going Renault through the left-handers at Turns 8 and 9. Hamilton eventually put together a complete effort at the third time of asking, but this proved to be 0.284s off Vettel's pace.

Raikkonen also took three attempts to produce a proper lap time on super-soft tyres, which proved fractionally faster than Hamilton's overall. Despite being on rubber past its best, Raikkonen was still Ferrari's fastest driver in the middle sector of the lap - from the high-speed esses at Turns 6 and 7 all the way to the exit of Turn 12 - as Vettel complained "I really struggled on the brakes" in the second half of his lap.

Hamilton was fastest of all through Turns 1, 2, 3 and 4, but slower than team-mate Valtteri Bottas - who had to overtake a Renault on his quick lap - through sectors two and three.

Putting the best sectors together puts Mercedes ahead on 1m31.176s, with Ferrari fractionally behind on 1m31.210s, and Red Bull two tenths off the pace with Ricciardo's 1m31.376s effort.

"If it was qualifying I would take that for now," Ricciardo said. "Actually, I would be pissed because it was pretty close to pole essentially, but it was a good day.

"I am not reading too much into low-fuel stuff, because at the moment it looks good but it doesn't make a whole lot of sense compared to a week ago."

Ricciardo's Red Bull team-mate Max Verstappen was not a factor in the qualifying runs, owing to floor damage sustained by running over an errant T-wing, which for the second event in succession was unexpectedly shed from the back of Bottas's Mercedes.

Verstappen described Red Bull's apparent turnaround in form on Friday here as "strange", and team boss Horner also cautioned "you don't know what [engine] modes others are running in".

"But Daniel in particular had a strong day," Horner added. "If that was qualifying we would bite your arm for that. Even more encouraging is that his race pace looked pretty decent as well."

MERCEDES vs FERRARI vs RED BULL

LONG RUN RANKING (SUPER-SOFT)

1. Hamilton (Mercedes) 1m36.606s (8 laps)
2. Ricciardo (Red Bull) 1m36.886s (8 laps)
3. Verstappen (Red Bull) 1m36.979s (6 laps)
4. Raikkonen (Ferrari) 1m37.047s (11 laps)
5. Hulkenberg (Renault) 1m37.071s (10 laps)
6. Bottas (Mercedes) 1m37.292s (14 laps)
7. Massa (Williams) 1m37.488s (12 laps)
8. Kvyat (Toro Rosso) 1m37.874s (12 laps)
9. Grosjean (Haas) 1m37.994s (11 laps)
10. Perez (Force India) 1m38.052s (9 laps)
11. Ocon (Force India) 1m38.064s (12 laps)
12. Alonso (McLaren) 1m38.275s (9 laps)
13. Palmer (Renault) 1m38.291s (13 laps)
14. Ericsson (Sauber) 1m39.562s (18 laps)

Horner seems justified in feeling encouraged by Red Bull's pace here. The RB13 has been a better car in race trim compared to qualifying so far this year, when engines are turned down and fuel loads heavier, and to be just 0.2-0.3s per lap slower than Hamilton's Mercedes over a similar stint on the super-soft tyre looks a strong effort.

Bahrain has not been a happy hunting ground for Red Bull in recent times. It's a circuit with long straights and short corners, placing a premium on horsepower and traction.

It's no secret Renault's ongoing battle to get on top of the complex V6 hybrid engine formula has held Red Bull back to a significant degree over the past three seasons, and this has always been emphasised in Bahrain, where Red Bull has yet to finish on the podium in three visits since F1 adopted this engine formula.

In each of the last two editions, to eliminate 2014's late safety car period that bunched the field, Red Bull hasn't manged to finish within a minute of the winning car.

Perhaps this is the first circuit on the calendar that actually suits the RB13's aerodynamic concept. Horner made much of the fact his team opted for an efficient approach this year, knowing the Renault engine would still be short on power compared to its rivals, at least initially. That will play dividends on the straights here.

The RB13 has also apparently been troublesome when transitioning through corner sequences, struggling to keep the car's airflow in check. Perhaps the Sakhir track layout is minimising the effect of this, thanks to the relatively short duration of time spent turning the wheels. Red Bull cars are usually strong under braking, which will also pay off around a track that has at least six reasonable stops around the lap.

It plays down the ultimate effect of this, but perhaps Red Bull has also found a set-up breakthrough, as it continues to recover from having to switch focus on its suspension concept following the FIA's ruling against a trick system it had been trying to develop through the winter.

LONG RUN RANKING (SOFT)

1. Raikkonen (Ferrari) 1m35.596s (2 laps)
2. Bottas (Mercedes) 1m36.290s (4 laps)
3. Massa (Williams) 1m36.520s (9 laps)
4. Hamilton (Mercedes) 1m36.530s (8 laps)
5. Ricciardo (Red Bull) 1m36.988s (6 laps)
6. Vettel (Ferrari) 1m37.200s (12 laps)
7. Alonso (McLaren) 1m37.470s (5 laps)
8. Grosjean (Haas) 1m37.480s (3 laps)
9. Kvyat (Toro Rosso) 1m37.503s (8 laps)
10. Perez (Force India) 1m37.707s (10 laps)
11. Ocon (Force India) 1m37.781s (10 laps)
12. Hulkenberg (Renault) 1m37.923s (10 laps)
13. Palmer (Renault) 1m38.169s (9 laps)
14. Magnussen (Haas) 1m38.789s (10 laps)
15. Stroll (Williams) 1m38.808s (13 laps)
16. Wehrlein (Sauber) 1m38.900s (16 laps)

The long runs on the more durable soft compound are tricky to read, owing to large variations in stint lengths and fuel loads. Raikkonen, Bottas, Fernando Alonso and Romain Grosjean all did relatively short soft-tyre runs near the end of the session, when their fuel loads were lighter. Super-soft star Hulkenberg did his run earlier on, out of sync with the rest, so it's likely he could have gone much faster than he did.

The big surprise on this tyre was Felipe Massa's Williams - faster than Hamilton, Ricciardo and Vettel.

"The car shows a good performance with the new tyres and also with the long runs," Massa said. "The long run was quite consistent, we managed to save the rear in a pretty acceptable way, so I was happy with the performance."

Compared to the other frontrunners who did similar runs at a similar time, Ricciardo was on average four tenths per lap slower than Hamilton and a couple of tenths up on Vettel, who ran a bit longer on the tyre than his main rivals after spending time in the pits getting his Ferrari fired up again after its random electrical shutdown.

One imagines Hamilton's advantage over Ricciardo on this tyre is more representative. Certainly both Mercedes drivers spent more time post-session talking up the Ferrari threat, anticipating another close battle in qualifying, not really expecting Red Bull to be in the mix.

The prevailing feeling will be that Mercedes and Ferrari have more room to improve through qualifying, as the track ramps up, excess fuel is dumped out, and the engines cranked to full power. Red Bull is unlikely to have as much extra horsepower to play with on Saturday, and Hamilton for one feels there is much more to come from his W08.

"Ferrari is fastest, particularly their race pace is a couple of tenths faster than us, so we've got to really work hard to try and figure out how we can improve the balance to close that gap," he said.

"I didn't finish my fast lap because I was held up by Hulkenberg on his slow lap, so I missed my fast lap and my next laps were on used tyres and different engine modes.

"Honestly, the car didn't feel spectacular on the long run, there's still some things we've got to work on with the tyres, but it could be all different by the time we get to Sunday."

Red Bull will most certainly hope not - that Friday nice surprise is a sign it has turned a real corner with the RB13.

It may well turn out to be more competitive than in the first two races, but it's still likely to take a serious underperformance from Mercedes and Ferrari, as well as a heroic effort from Ricciardo and Verstappen, to keep Red Bull properly in the fight here.