How a Mercedes "bad call" checkmated Verstappen

Sometimes, a race is won or lost long before victory and defeats manifest themselves on track. Lewis Hamilton's Hungarian Grand Prix victory was ostensibly secured when he passed Max Verstappen for the lead with just under four laps remaining after brilliantly chasing down the Red Bull driver.

But the decisive moment really came on lap 47 of the 70 as Hamilton rounded the Turn 13 left-hander and was instructed to close on leader Verstappen.

The request to narrow the gap, which then stood at a second, was the moment Mercedes committed to making a pitstop that put Verstappen and Red Bull in check and with only two possible moves to make. Both were losing choices; checkmate in one move.

A lap later, Hamilton was told to pit with a warning to do the opposite to Verstappen. This was to ensure Red Bull couldn't simply bring Verstappen in at the same time to maintain the status quo, never a viable defensive move because it was so easily countered. So as Hamilton peeled into the pits, the race-winning choice had been made.

Not that Hamilton could see it at the time, emerging from the stop on fresh mediums with 21 seconds to make up and just 22 laps in which to do it. It was a similar equation to the one Michael Schumacher was famously presented on his way to victory at the Hungaroring in 1998, and Hamilton was equal to it.

After nailing his outlap to ensure Verstappen couldn't pit and stay ahead, Hamilton questioned the strategy and declared it a "bad call". But it was quite the opposite, it was inspired.

Hamilton cut Verstappen's advantage to 19.231s by the end of his outlap. Verstappen, on hard tyres 23 laps older than Hamilton's, desperately tried to eke what pace he could from the car and there was a window of around five laps where he looked to have broken the Mercedes challenge, but it was ultimately to no avail. Hamilton was an average of 1.138s per lap faster for the next 16 laps to close to just a second behind Verstappen at the end of lap 65.

Two laps later, Hamilton closed rapidly using the DRS on the start/finish straight, Verstappen defended to the inside of Turn 1 but had no chance given the inferior braking performance on aged rubber. The die that had been cast earlier came up with a six for Hamilton.

Four laps to spare might seem like cutting it fine, but Mercedes chief strategist James Vowles deserved his place on the podium as the constructors' representative every bit as much as Hamilton did as race winner. After all, he could have taken the easy option and left Hamilton out on a one-stopper and likely watched him find no way past Verstappen. Nothing gained, nothing lost. Instead, he made the right call, exposed himself to criticism if it failed and, assisted by Hamilton's brilliance, turned second place into first.

To understand why the race ended this way, we have to wind back to 24 hours earlier and qualifying. There, Mercedes appeared to have potentially the faster car but it was Verstappen who finally claimed his first F1 pole position.

Valtteri Bottas, in the second Mercedes, was only 0.018s down after losing time in Turns 12 and 13 ahead of a lacklustre Hamilton, who wasn't happy with the feel of his car. But crucially, this meant that what was the fastest car in race conditions did not go into the grand prix with track position guaranteed.

On top of that, rain during Friday practice, with FP1 slightly affected and FP2 largely ruined, had compromised everyone's dry running and therefore understanding of how the tyres, particularly the hards, might perform in the race.

With Ferrari still struggling for front-end aero load, and Verstappen's team-mate Pierre Gasly well off the pace on another woeful weekend, this left Verstappen versus Hamilton

Bottas knew he had an opportunity to close the world championship gap to Hamilton, so set his stall out to be aggressive at the start. Verstappen's getaway was so-so and he pulled across the front of Bottas, who then moved to the left in an attempt to go around the outside of the Red Bull.

On the outside of him was Hamilton, and when Bottas locked up under braking for Turn 1 he had set himself on a trajectory that would knock him out of victory contention by the fourth corner despite, by a few millimetres, momentarily taking the lead.

Verstappen held first on the inside, while Hamilton attempted to sweep around the outside of Bottas. Stuck on the widest line, Hamilton had to slot into third but with Bottas behind Verstappen on the inside of the Turn 2 left-hander, he was able to attempt to go around the outside. Bottas squeezed him to the outside of the track, but Hamilton had the inside line for the Turn 3 right-hander that followed and made it clear to Bottas that he felt it was his corner.

"Turn 1, I was on the outside of Verstappen so trying to brake late and trying to go for the outside," said Bottas. "He braked later as well and I had a bit of a lock-up, so that caused a bit of a flatspot. Going into Turn 2 I had some understeer because of that but it was all OK. Lewis was on the outside and there was room for two of us, maybe I left too much because he carried good speed into Turn 3.

"We were side by side and he didn't leave any room for me so that compromised my exit. Then on the way to Turn 4, Charles [Leclerc] came on the right-hand side then suddenly swept across and took my front wing and that really compromised my race."

Initially, it seemed Leclerc had emphatically chopped across Bottas's nose, so it was a surprise that the stewards took no action. But later, FIA race director Michael Masi explained that the overhead view showed Bottas actually moved to the right - and so it did. What actually happened was Leclerc moved left to pin Bottas to the inside, but it was the drift of the Mercedes to the right that caused the contact - and resulting front wing damage.

Bottas was quickly shuffled to fifth by Sebastian Vettel and it was clear the front wing damage was serious. Initially, Mercedes left him out - and it might have been a viable option to stay out ahead of the midfield in an attempt to ensure he could make a one-stop strategy work rather than the two-stopper he did have to complete.

But given the flatspot acquired at Turn 1 was causing significant vibration and risked compounding the damage to the front wing, Bottas was called in for a new nose at the end of lap five and dropped to last - well out of the frontrunning picture and almost 50s behind.

With Ferrari off the pace at the Hungaroring, still struggling for front-end aero load despite running the maximum available front wing, and Verstappen's team-mate, Pierre Gasly, well off the pace on another woeful weekend, this left Verstappen versus Hamilton.

And it was advantage Verstappen, who quickly established a lead that floated between 2-2.5s over the first 16 laps as the duo sized each other up. But radio communication suggested Hamilton felt he could close up at will. This confidence proved justified when he started to inch up on Verstappen on lap 17, moving to just a second behind by lap 23 in preparation for the first round of pitstops.

Both drivers started on the mediums they had used in Q2, as did all the drivers from the big three teams, but it was Red Bull that blinked first. Having built up enough of an advantage over Leclerc and fearing a Hamilton undercut, Verstappen dived into the pits at the end of lap 25 to take on fresh hard Pirellis.

Hamilton, who never had the option to launch an undercut because the Ferraris were in his way, did not follow a lap later. Instead, he extended his stint by six laps once it became clear Verstappen's outlap was easily fast enough to regain the lead if Hamilton stopped there and then.

This allowed Verstappen to build his de facto lead. In the laps that followed, and under instructions to match Hamilton's pace, Verstappen closed from 18.9s behind and had just got the gap to dip below 16s when the Mercedes peeled into the pits at the end of lap 31.

Hamilton rejoined with a deficit that peaked at 6.5s on his outlap, not helped by losing a couple of seconds in the stop that initially appeared to give Verstappen some breathing space. But he then went on the attack, closing to 4.952s down by the end of his outlap. Next time round, Verstappen's advantage was down to 2.838s, then just 0.828s at the end of lap 34.

Verstappen was vulnerable and, despite picking up his pace, Hamilton was right with him on lap 36 and able to have a vague look to the inside at Turn 1. Verstappen covered, and when Hamilton ran wide at Turn 2 after jinking to the outside of the defending Verstappen, the challenge was briefly broken.

From lap 53 to 57, Hamilton only took 0.263s per lap out of the Red Bull. But Verstappen's pace took its toll on his tyres, and from lap 58 to 65 Hamilton carved 1.777s out per lap. Verstappen was a "sitting duck"

Hamilton regrouped and, three laps later as Verstappen lost time behind the Renault of Daniel Ricciardo, got another chance. Verstappen moved to the inside of the Renault to lap it into Turn 1 as Hamilton closed in on him.

The Red Bull driver ensured he left Hamilton no space on the inside, so Hamilton attempted to squeeze between Ricciardo and Verstappen, but the leader held on.

Hamilton attacked again into Turn 2 and attempted to go the long way round. This time, he pulled in behind Verstappen mid-corner but got a better exit out of the Turn 3 right hander that followed. On the drag to the fast Turn 4, Hamilton again drew alongside on a trajectory that gave him the outside line for the left-hander. Verstappen, seeing what was coming, took a conservative approach to avoid going onto the runoff as Hamilton carried too much speed into the corner - dutifully rejoining and pulling in behind Verstappen.

It was exhilarating stuff, the battle between arguably the two best drivers of today we've all been waiting for.

Things then calmed down, with both drivers having to take precautions to ensure tyre life and managing cooling issues. It was during this phase that Mercedes made the decision to abandon Plan A - a one-stopper - and commit to the two-stopper.

By now, the Ferraris were too far behind to be in the way if Hamilton did stop, while Gasly was still trying forlornly to scrap his way to the front of the midfield having slipped to ninth on the opening lap. Hamilton's free stop, which cost time but not second place, came at the end of lap 48, and there was nothing Red Bull could do about it.

"Max had enough to have him under control [in the middle stages], but we could hear that as soon as Lewis was getting close his car was overheating with the brakes and issues like that," said Red Bull team principal Christian Horner.

"With the guys so far ahead of the rest of the field and the pace they had in the Mercedes, strategically it was the obvious thing to do to roll the dice and take a pitstop.

"By halfway round his outlap, he was already neck and neck, which means by the end of the lap Hamilton would have been ahead [if Verstappen pitted] so we didn't have the ability with Max to cover him by pitting on the next lap because it would have conceded track position."

What the Hungarian GP proved was Hamilton has no interest in letting Verstappen knock him off his perch at the top of F1 without a fight

Initially, Mercedes was confident Hamilton would take the lead with a few laps to spare. But Verstappen, who was frustrated that Hamilton had been able to steal a march and was concerned about tyre wear - particularly on the rear-right - set a surprisingly good pace.

Hamilton cut the gap from 19.231s at the end of lap 49 to just 16.023s at the end of lap 52, but then Verstappen picked up his lap times. From lap 53 to 57, Hamilton only took an average of 0.263s per lap out of the Red Bull and Mercedes feared all might be lost. But the pace Verstappen was setting soon took its toll on his tyres, and from lap 58 to 65 Hamilton carved 1.777s per lap out of him. As Horner put it, Verstappen was a "sitting duck".

On the 66th lap, Hamilton took almost seven tenths out of Verstappen to cross the line just 0.382s behind - and with the advantage of the DRS, comfortably drove around the outside to lead. Verstappen was powerless to stop him, and promptly headed to the pits for fresh softs to take an easy fastest lap and a bonus point.

There was also action in the battle for the final podium position in the closing stages. Leclerc, who was the better-placed of the Ferrari drivers on the grid in fourth, held the initiative in the first stint and kept Vettel just behind. But when he pitted at the end of lap 27 to take hards, Vettel extended his stint.

Unusually, he went all the way to lap 39 before stopping for softs, by which time Leclerc had caught him. That left Vettel just over 20s to make up on Leclerc, which he did - taking third place into Turn 1 on the lap after Hamilton took the lead.

As for Bottas, despite Mercedes initially being confident he could recover to finish sixth, he managed only eighth place. After his stop, he'd climbed to 16th easily enough by lap 15, but that put him behind Ricciardo.

It wasn't until lap 32 that Bottas finally got past the Renault, which meant that after making a second pitstop for mediums he rejoined 12th. He then passed Toro Rosso pair Daniil Kvyat and Alex Albon, as well as Sergio Perez and Lando Norris, but couldn't find a way round Kimi Raikkonen.

This helped Carlos Sainz Jr to take his second consecutive fifth place for McLaren. He passed Gasly and Norris at the start and bossed the midfield, ultimately leading home the second Red Bull driver after Norris dropped back at his pitstop with a slow front-right wheel change.

Up front, Hamilton's victory made it eight wins out of 12. More importantly than that, he revelled in defeating Verstappen in a straight fight.

"There's no better feeling from a racing driver's point of view than when you have a race like today when you face a really strong competitor and a great driver like Max at their best," said Hamilton. "It's really comforting and awesome to see the respect level between us out there. Really respectful driving and I hope to continue that.

"As soon as I got into second, I was like, 'OK, this whole battle we've been talking about me and Max having, we're going to have that today'. It was really awesome."

Hamilton and Verstappen have plenty of battles to come. But what the Hungarian Grand Prix proved was Hamilton has no interest in letting Verstappen knock him off his perch at the top of grand prix racing without a fight. Only time will put this in the right perspective, but this race might just have been the moment that generational rivalry really ignited.