The problem Ferrari and Vettel cannot ignore

Another race, another Sebastian Vettel error. For the third time in five races, the number five Ferrari ended up facing the wrong way early in a grand prix after contact with a rival. The lost points tally rises ever higher.

It's simple to point to the mistakes and discuss how they have impacted the championship, since nobody can deny there has been a very significant swing in Lewis Hamilton's favour thanks to Vettel's mishaps. But they have shaped the season in an even more significant way, one that the United States Grand Prix weekend laid bare, and could yet have an impact on 2019 - be it for better or for worse.

While the mistakes are part of the story, there's far more to this, and it's about whether or not Ferrari is a team ready to take the final half-step towards beating a Mercedes squad that must now rank among one of grand prix racing's truly great teams.

Vettel went into the race at Austin 67 points behind; while he's mathematically still in the championship hunt, it's really only a matter of time before Hamilton is crowned. But having endured three bad weekends, Ferrari was suddenly bang back on form in America - not only able to beat Mercedes, but also having pulled away from Red Bull again.

Vettel talked about rolling back recent developments as fundamental to this, suggesting that while Mercedes has done an excellent job to get on top of its car, Ferrari has inadvertently engineered itself backwards. Could Vettel himself have contributed to this by weakening his position in the championship with those lost points?

Creating alternative realities is fraught with danger and founded on all manner of assumptions, but it's possible to reconstruct the championship landscape with Vettel's key errors eradicated to quantify approximately how much he has lost. That's what makes these back-of-the-envelope calculations worth doing.

In Baku, when Vettel locked up while attempting to pass Valtteri Bottas for the lead into the first corner after a late safety-car restart, it cost him a potential victory. Assuming Vettel could have sat behind Bottas and then picked up the lead when the Mercedes driver suffered a puncture, that represents a 20-point swing in Vettel's favour over Hamilton, who would have finished second rather than winning.

This was a tiny error, one that in isolation is hard to be too critical of since he was going for victory with a legitimate move, but in the context of the wider mistakes it's important to include.

Vettel's clattering into Bottas at the start of the French Grand Prix, and then dropping to the back with a penalty, meant he finished fifth rather than third, a potential loss of five points. Had Vettel not impeded Carlos Sainz Jr during qualifying for the Austrian Grand Prix, and picked up a three-place grid penalty, he might have conceivably won the race rather than finishing third - a possible gain of 10 points.

Germany was the big one, with a potential 32-point swing in Vettel's favour compared with reality, for rather than losing 25 points to Hamilton he could have led his title rival home for a gain of seven points.

You could simply say that Vettel's errors are secondary to the fact that Ferrari has lost the development war

The spin while battling with Hamilton at the start of the Italian Grand Prix was also costly, because without that Vettel could easily have won rather than finishing fourth. Vettel being in the mix would have completely changed the race, so it's very difficult to predict what would have happened at Monza with any accuracy, but there's every chance Vettel would have won with Hamilton second - or even lower. So we'll call that a 10-point swing thanks to Vettel picking up 13 more points and Hamilton losing seven. By the time Vettel got to Japan, the title was as good as lost, so his clash with Verstappen was the understandable consequence of an all-out-attack approach. There was no point in Vettel sitting behind him for 20 laps, so he had a go. Fair enough. But let's say Vettel would have finished fourth rather than sixth, that's still four more points.

Tally all of that up, and Hamilton loses 21 points, while Vettel gains 70 - a massive swing of 91 points. That meant Vettel could have gone into the US Grand Prix 24 points clear.

On top of that, his red flag infringement in FP3, which was harsh because he had slowed down to a safe speed but entirely fair because he broke a clearly set-out rule, put him back three places and created the conditions for his lap-one clash with Daniel Ricciardo. It's eminently possible he'd have won and gained more points on Hamilton without that.

This is all supposition, and we can't be sure how things could have panned out. But it's entirely reasonable to say Vettel could have at least been on level terms with Hamilton over the past few months, if not ahead. So, the errors are significant.

But the impact is more than just missing points. In Singapore, Russia and Japan, Ferrari was decisively slower than Mercedes both on qualifying and race pace. The former is particularly important, since this had proved to be a strength for Ferrari for much of the season.

The rate of car development is never linear and all teams have periods where the aerodynamic returns level off before building again as new avenues are exploited. Ferrari seems to have hit one of those and pressed on with introducing developments it doesn't entirely understand and which haven't worked. Then, when it rolled back those developments, the pace returned.

So you could simply say that Vettel's errors are secondary to the fact that Ferrari has lost the development war. Car pace is king, after all, and he would have lost ground in those three poor race weekends.

But why were those developments signed off, sending Ferrari down a development cul-de-sac that not only prevented it from making gains, but even seems to have made the car slower? Well, sometimes people talk about aggressive developments, and sometimes that can mean committing to higher-risk parts.

Perhaps you unleash a new concept of aero component, or trial one that you don't entirely understand - or whose impact on the rest of the car you haven't yet rigorously evaluated. The aero map of an F1 car is a constantly shifting and hugely complex one that is influenced by myriad factors, so even with the resources of Ferrari it's possible to send yourself in the wrong direction.

Now let's say Vettel hadn't lost so many points. Could that have changed the decision-making process? Had he been level pegging with Hamilton but still very much in the hunt, might that have prevented Ferrari from making these mistakes? It's possible.

You can also reverse this argument and ask whether it's something within the team culture that has created instability and contributed to Vettel's mistakes. A team is not a one-dimensional entity - it's a reciprocal environment where one aspect boosts another or potentially drags another down.

We can conclude that Ferrari is not yet ready to win a championship... quite. For the first half of the season it was able to convert an often very slender qualifying-pace advantage into victories. Having done that part of the job well, it's let other things slip.

There needs to be some serious soul-searching from Vettel and Ferrari to get to the root of a problem that cannot be ignored

We know Vettel is capable of thriving in a close championship contest: two of his four titles came in last-round deciders. But he is making more errors than usual in 2018, and there has to be a reason for that somewhere. Perhaps in a different environment they don't happen?

Ferrari team principal Maurizio Arrivabene said at Suzuka that Ferrari is still a "new" team. This was a somewhat fatuous comment given that it's the oldest team of them all, but there's a kernel of truth there. What he revealed with that description was that he doesn't quite see Ferrari as ready to win titles.

Vettel is still the same driver he was when he became a near-impregnable title-winning force at Red Bull. While a few years older, he's still stunningly fast and capable of great victories. So, what both he and Ferrari have to ask is: what has changed? All the indicators suggest that the team environment is not quite right, and perhaps scrutiny is required of the team Vettel had around him at Red Bull in the glory days to understand what is missing to make him perform at his highest level.

Perhaps there should be a long, hard look at the way Vettel interacts with those on his side of the garage, and how they interact with him. We know he's an emotional character - particularly in the car - so could there be a way to bring back the calm all great champions require in the high-stress moments? Something isn't right, so something needs to change.

Heading into the fifth year of their alliance next season, it's time for Vettel and Ferrari to make it work. So far, driver and team have been good for each other but not yet great.

Next year is the crossroads that could decide if a team that has grown into a formidable competitor, going toe-to-toe with an outstanding Mercedes outfit and only just losing out, can take the final step with its own aspiring five-times world champion.

And to do that, there needs to be some serious soul-searching to get to the root of a problem that cannot be ignored.