The alternate reality where Alonso eclipses Schumacher

When Fernando Alonso leaves Formula 1 at the end of the year he will do so with the peculiar distinction of being a two-time world champion whose potential went unfulfilled.

Winning one title is a major achievement, so how can two be underwhelming? That is the measure of Alonso's unique career.

At the end of 2006, as a newly crowned double world champion, Alonso looked to be poised to have a huge impact on F1's record books. Instead, what happened next severed that timeline and set Alonso on a new course of frustration and missed opportunities.

The turning point was McLaren's decision to put Lewis Hamilton alongside Alonso for 2007. This is the history that choice prevented...

Emulating Fangio at McLaren

In late 2006, McLaren has three options to partner Alonso for '07: Hamilton, Pedro de la Rosa and Gary Paffett. Hamilton is the favoured option but his slight struggles on Michelin tyres in testing casts some doubt in the minds of McLaren's top brass. Pushing to make a call before the end of November, McLaren opts for de la Rosa. Hamilton is parked for a year, although at a Barcelona test days after the decision, with McLaren using Bridgestones as it prepares for the 2007 tyre switch, he seems immediately more comfortable.

McLaren sticks with its decision, comfortable that an intense 2007 testing programme will triple Hamilton's possible mileage and leave zero doubt for '08. Meanwhile Alonso, with the team based around him and the MP4-22 being the class of the field, romps to a third straight title in his first year with McLaren.

Hamilton gets his grand prix debut in 2008, but Alonso - bolstered by a year building the team around him and with the presence and power of a three-time champion - takes control in the early part of the campaign. Soon, though, the raw speed of his team-mate becomes difficult to ignore.

As Hamilton starts to challenge Alonso, the first signs of tension emerge. Hamilton pinches his first win in Monaco, then delivers an astonishing drive in the wet at Silverstone to win on home soil at the first attempt.

Alonso, flustered at times, retains enough control to beat Hamilton to the crown, matching Juan Manuel Fangio and Michael Schumacher in earning four titles in a row. But he senses the wind within the team beginning to blow towards the Briton. This, he determines, is an unacceptable shift in balance given he is an established world champion and the other driver is a rookie.

Meanwhile, the strength of McLaren's duo keeps Ferrari at arm's length throughout the season, despite Felipe Massa emerging as the Scuderia's leading man and offering a persistent threat. Ferrari's challenge, coupled with a misjudgement of the aerodynamic requirements of the major rule changes, means McLaren finds itself on the backfoot when its 2009 challenger hits the track for pre-season testing.

Alonso, flustered at times, retains enough control to beat Hamilton to the crown, matching Juan Manuel Fangio and Michael Schumacher in earning four titles in a row

No double diffuser and a weak car overall leaves Alonso and Hamilton toiling behind the Brawns, Toyotas and Williamses, and a podium looks unlikely in the first half of the season, let alone a win. McLaren's struggles coincide with Hamilton growing in stature within the team, and early in the year a wary Alonso plots his exit strategy.

With Kimi Raikkonen failing to deliver Ferrari the world title it craved, and falling behind Massa in the pecking order, the Scuderia offers Alonso the chance to emulate Schumacher by earning success with Maranello.

Alonso finally inks his move to Ferrari for 2010 after the Hungarian GP weekend. With an upgraded car, McLaren fights for pole and victory at the Hungaroring - but an incident in qualifying overshadows events. Hamilton and Alonso fall out when the former holds up the latter while pitting for fresh tyres, sparking outrage from Alonso and team boss Ron Dennis.

A furious Alonso considers releasing fresh information about the 2007 espionage case between Ferrari and McLaren, dormant for two years but still ultra-sensitive as Ferrari felt McLaren got away with a slap on the wrists. Instead Alonso decides the bigger punishment is to leave one team for the other, and opts to head to Maranello.

Sadly for Alonso, Ferrari cannot give him the Schumacher-like success he craves. Instead, he has to watch Hamilton win the 2010 title in the McLaren he could have been driving. Hamilton, emboldened by Alonso's exit and wingmanned by '09 champion and new McLaren signing Jenson Button, thrives in a new role as team leader.

That confidence, combined with a thirst for a maiden title, means he takes control of the championship fight after the summer break, with victory in Belgium and aggressive but well-judged drives to third in Italy and Singapore, narrowly avoiding contact with Massa and Mark Webber in each race respectively.

Alonso is obliterated in 2011 by Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull, who earn their first title together, and suffers defeat again in '12 despite a heroic effort in a shed of a Ferrari.

Replacing Schumacher to match Schumacher

As Alonso prepares for a make-or-break year with Ferrari, McLaren convinces Hamilton he can fight for a second title in 2013 after poor reliability dropped him out of the '12 fight. McLaren ended that year with the fastest car and promises Hamilton a Red Bull-beating overhaul: he agrees to remain, but it backfires as McLaren gets it horribly wrong.

Alonso fares better, but Vettel and Red Bull hit a new stride and go on to dominate in even more devastating fashion than in 2011 to earn a third straight title. As Vettel begins a remarkable nine-race winning run after the summer break, Alonso signs a deal to replace Schumacher at Mercedes. Hamilton attempts to derail that by reviving his own Mercedes talks from the previous year, but Hamilton's '12 snub and the value of Alonso as a four-time champion proves to be the crucial difference for the Silver Arrows.

Missing out on the Mercedes move stings Hamilton, but he still finds salvation from McLaren's 2013 slump. Alonso's exit leaves Ferrari without the world championship-winning lead driver it craves in its line-up and Hamilton, enticed by the romance associated with the Italian marque, jumps at the chance to fill that - denying Raikkonen a surprise return to the team he left in 2009, and forcing the Finn to retire after a two-year comeback with Lotus.

Ferrari protege Sergio Perez, kept at Sauber for another year in 2013, earns a promised graduation as Massa's underwhelming form since his near-fatal incident over the '09 Hungarian GP weekend finally means he loses his seat.

After several years of frustration, Alonso's timing and fortune prove to be impeccable. Mercedes' advantage as F1 enters its new V6 turbo-hybrid engine era is phenomenal and Alonso more than has the measure of team-mate Nico Rosberg. Title number five is a formality, especially with the drivers Alonso fears most - Hamilton and Vettel - hamstrung elsewhere.

Hamilton and Ferrari endure a tough season as the Italian squad underestimates the new engine rules as much as Mercedes nailed them. Vettel's situation is marginally better at unreliable Red Bull-Renault, but he is eclipsed by new team-mate Daniel Ricciardo, who wins three grands prix. He decides he needs to leave the team that gave him three world titles - and takes a gamble on repeating history.

Alonso signing a deal with Mercedes in 2013 cut short negotiations for a spectacular return to McLaren for its second era with Honda. McLaren-Honda, desperate for an A-list driver to partner Button, turns to Vettel as a second choice, and coaxes the German from Red Bull with a Honda-funded mega-salary and the promise of 1980/90s-style Anglo-Japanese glory.

Alonso signing a deal with Mercedes in 2013 cuts short a spectacular return to McLaren. McLaren-Honda, desperate for an A-list driver to partner Button, turns to Vettel

But the move only makes Vettel an irrelevance in 2015. Honda proves woefully underprepared as it joins the grid a year too early, as Hamilton and Ferrari give Alonso and Mercedes their first warning shot of the V6 era. Hamilton becomes the first Brit to win with Ferrari since Nigel Mansell, but Alonso earns a second title in a row (sixth overall) as Mercedes proves comfortably superior over the season and a dispirited Rosberg is hammered over the middle of the campaign.

Rosberg comes out swinging in 2016 and emerges as a credible challenger to Alonso, while Hamilton and Ferrari slip back and fail to fight for victories. Alonso struggles with bad reliability early in the year, but edges back ahead with a run of five wins from six before the summer break - Rosberg proves too good in Azerbaijan, but Alonso follows him home in second.

Alonso's solid advantage is chipped away at by Rosberg through wins in Belgium (where Alonso has to charge through from the back after a grid penalty linked to his earlier unreliability), Italy and Singapore. Rosberg is handed a chunky points advantage when Alonso retires in Malaysia, but Alonso hits back with victory in Japan - nailing the start to beat polesitter Rosberg to Turn 1 - and another three straight wins to steal the title in Abu Dhabi and match Schumacher on seven titles.

Title number eight

After a couple of seasons of relative stability on the driver market, 2017 brings a major change - and a major challenge for Alonso.

McLaren-Honda's struggles test Vettel's patience too far, and some behind-the-scenes manoeuvring ends in the German replacing Rosberg at Mercedes, which is wary of Alonso retiring. Rosberg's trio of defeats do not fill the manufacturer with confidence he will lead the team going forward, particularly against a Hamilton-led Ferrari, and the prospect of a younger, title-winning German in the squad proves to be much more appealing.

Rosberg contemplates retirement in the wake of the immense effort of going toe-to-toe with Alonso, but cannot bring himself to walk away on a low ebb. His management, aided by some support from Rosberg's old karting buddy Hamilton, find him an in at Ferrari - Perez is shuffled out after three solid but unspectacular seasons.

Meanwhile, Vettel's move to partner Alonso presents McLaren with the task of filling both seats as Button calls time on his career. Valtteri Bottas is drafted from Williams to partner the team's own protege Stoffel Vandoorne, while Perez heads to Williams to replace Bottas and partner rookie Lance Stroll, who steps up to take Massa's drive as the Brazilian retires.

With Ferrari more competitive than ever and a multiple world champion in his own team, Alonso finds 2017 even tougher than his near-miss with Rosberg the year before. But the drive to stand out on his own with eight titles fuels Alonso to some stunning performances, with the revitalised Hamilton and Vettel winning multiple races apiece as the leading trio take points off one another.

Hamilton's bid is scuppered in the final third of the season, particularly when he clashes with team-mate Rosberg in Singapore then suffers a mechanical problem in Japan. That leaves Vettel to duke it out with Alonso for the title, but an early retirement in Spain and bizarre headrest problem in Azerbaijan - which almost occurs on Alonso's car - cost him valuable points and leave him playing catch-up. Despite a late-season Vettel charge, Alonso's cunning and help from team orders - as Vettel threatens to race his team-mate too hard on more than one occasion - are just enough to keep the German at bay. Alonso emerges with his eighth title and fourth in four seasons with Mercedes.

As Rosberg experienced 12 months before, though, the toughest battles take the biggest toll. At the start of 2018, Alonso - now 37 - falls behind as Vettel establishes himself as Mercedes' leading man and Ferrari's continued resurgence thrusts Hamilton to the top of the pile. Alonso is restricted only to brilliantly opportunistic wins in a safety car-affected Chinese GP and a rain-hit race in Germany, and with Hamilton and Vettel otherwise monopolising the sharp end, he heads into the summer break with his future clear.

In mid-August, Alonso announces his intention to leave F1 at the end of 2018. With eight titles marking him out as the most successful grand prix driver in history, Alonso turns his attention to an even more emphatic display of his ability: he announces Indianapolis 500 and Le Mans 24 Hours drives in '19, in a bid to complete motorsport's triple crown in one glorious sweep.

The truth behind the fiction

Like any good 'what if?' story, the above events are possible thanks to a healthy amount of creative licence, but they are also rooted in truth.

Alonso's fractious relationship with Hamilton at McLaren began because the rapid young upstart was so fiendishly fast that Alonso's protected number-one status was undermined.

That led to Alonso threatening to get involved in the Ferrari/McLaren espionage case, and though he backed down from that he spooked Ron Dennis into contacting the FIA and a chain of events unfolded that turned Spygate into the full-blown scandal we know it to be. This ended his time at McLaren but it has also prevented him ever being in serious consideration for a Mercedes drive.

Eliminate the 2007 Spygate fallout and you eliminate a massive factor in Alonso's reputation as a disruptive and unpopular influence

While it is likely that McLaren would have been punished even without the evidence of Alonso's emails with de la Rosa, which proved the depths Spygate went to, a $100million fine and championship exclusion would have been unlikely without more cold, hard evidence in its place. McLaren may have escaped only with the need to submit its 2008 car design to be checked to see if it contained Ferrari's intellectual property. Maybe the true story would have never emerged...

Mercedes, being a shareholder in McLaren at the time, had to fork out towards the Spygate fine. That, combined with the dishonour that engulfed the parties involved, means it is small wonder Mercedes' chiefs never wanted Alonso in their car.

Eliminate that part of history and you eliminate a massive factor in Alonso's reputation as a disruptive and unpopular influence. But the other storylines we've considered are not exactly far-fetched works of fiction.

As recently as last year, it was known that moving to Ferrari was the only remaining interest to Hamilton in F1, even amid his phenomenal success with Mercedes. The famous Italian team tugs at the heartstrings of any fan or person who has lived and breathed racing, and Hamilton is no different. The prospect of being draped in scarlet would have surely been too tantalising to decline in the absence of an offer from Mercedes. And he did need convincing to switch from McLaren in reality, so Mercedes' bid to take him away may well have failed in a world where Hamilton is a slightly happier man at Woking.

The other major protagonist who ends up in pastures new thanks to our alternative timeline is Vettel, who finds his way to Mercedes via a spell with McLaren-Honda. So why would the man who dominated with Red Bull leave and head to Woking? Well, Alonso was convinced in real life, so the arguments (or the perks) were clearly persuasive. And it is understood that Vettel was McLaren-Honda's second choice in reality, and contact - however brief - was indeed made between the two parties, before Alonso emerged as the serious, favoured and realistic catch, and Ferrari made space for Vettel.

What the above represents is just another example of one detail change having multiple, massive consequences. Inevitably, some will dismiss imagining such an alternate reality as a waste of time, and say we should accept that history turned out as we know it.

But where's the fun in that?