How Ricciardo's bombshell rocks the F1 driver market

Daniel Ricciardo rocked everybody from the upper echelons of Red Bull to the journalists writing that his new contract with the team was a formality with his decision to leave the team for Renault at the end of this year.

The long-term impact of the bombshell will be a fascinating sub-plot to the next two Formula 1 seasons, but it creates huge ripples in the short-term as well.

F1's driver market silly season is usually a complex web that it is traced back to a single strand, but this year's looked different. Below the top teams was an unruly, largely disconnected mess. Several drivers had, and still have, several options. So several outcomes remain possible.

Ricciardo's move has huge ramifications. Red Bull must replace him, and that impacts several drivers. Ricciardo has also ended the bids from Carlos Sainz Jr and Esteban Ocon to race for Renault next year, which means their respective positions have become more complicated.

Ocon looked like the simplest piece of the 2019 puzzle. The Mercedes junior was expected to leave Force India after two seasons to join Renault. Renault boss Cyril Abiteboul admitted as recently as last Sunday that talks with Ocon, as well as Sainz, had taken place.

Mercedes wants to see more of Ocon before promoting him to its works team, so moving to a factory effort like Renault would have given him more relevant experience and a more competitive car next season to show what he can do. This is no longer an option, but there are no other seats that represent a step up, and not stagnation.

It might be difficult to even manage stagnation given Force India is in administration and awaiting a new buyer. Lawrence Stroll has been touted as possible investor, taking his son Lance with him from Williams to drive one car - and Ocon is not considered an appealing team-mate for the young Canadian.

Sergio Perez seems the favourite if Stroll's move is indeed the outcome, given the Mexican is not the outright fastest of the midfield but an immensely efficient operator and valuable commodity in that fight. Robert Kubica would be another option given his increasingly close relationship with Stroll.

Ocon's position now being uncertain means Mercedes must work out how to find homes for two juniors next year, not just one. Had Ocon slotted in simply at Renault instead of Ricciardo, Mercedes' only headache would have been what to do with George Russell. He had set his sights on Force India but would clash with Stroll as a talented rookie, so that was already unlikely.

Russell's performances in Formula 2 and in F1 testing with Mercedes is putting pressure on Toto Wolff to find the Briton a race seat. Being parked for a year with FP1 roles would be a tough pill to swallow given Russell's career momentum.

While Ocon needs to wait to see where he will end up, Sainz will be scrambling to establish what serious chance he has of landing the Red Bull seat

A Mercedes junior superteam at Williams would offer a saving grace: the growing technical relationship between the two parties could extend to a gearbox supply next year.

If favourable commercial terms could accompany that, then perhaps Ocon and Russell could head to Grove together, but the team losing backing from both Stroll and Sergey Sirotkin - at the same time as title sponsor Martini disappearing - would mean Mercedes having to write a massive cheque to make it worth Williams's while.

While Ocon needs to wait to see where he will end up in the wake of Ricciardo's move, Sainz will be scrambling to establish what serious chance he has of landing the Red Bull seat. The Spaniard pushed for his temporary move to Renault because he saw no seat at the big table in the short-term.

The chance to grab that position has now emerged, but has Sainz alienated himself too much in the process, or has his performance relative to Nico Hulkenberg (who is winning 52 points to 30 so far) devalued his stock too much? And will Red Bull therefore consider Pierre Gasly a better bet?

There's no such thing as 'too soon' where Helmut Marko and Red Bull are concerned, and Gasly's efforts and experience with Honda power at Toro Rosso have been impressive.

When that package has offered a chance to star, Gasly is the driver to have done so, not the supposed safe-pair-of-hands of Brendon Hartley. This could count for a lot.

Gasly staying at Toro Rosso for another year would not be terrible for his development but promoting him to Red Bull to replace Ricciardo would represent Sainz heading for the last-chance saloon and likely seeking refuge at the junior team he left last year. It may also offer Hartley a stay of execution.

If Gasly goes, and the "crazy but fast" (in Marko's words) Dan Ticktum does not qualify for a superlicence at the end of the year, Hartley would be Red Bull's only option within its pool of drivers for the second Toro Rosso seat.

It could look outside that pool, of course. Red Bull has already made an approach this year for Lando Norris, the McLaren reserve driver whose grand prix graduation is far from assured.

Norris may be facing a year on the sidelines, but McLaren is currently trying to extract James Key from his contract early so he can start as the new technical director at Woking. Could, or would, Norris be used as a makeweight?

McLaren has indicated it only wants to relinquish Norris on a temporary basis, something Red Bull was against earlier this year. But if it now feels it lacks serious options on the driver front then its tune could change.

Norris is available because of a confusing situation at McLaren that Sainz may look to take advantage of if he is passed over to replace Ricciardo and does not get, or baulks at, the chance to go back to Toro Rosso. Fernando Alonso is yet to decide whether he wants to extend his F1 career, while Stoffel Vandoorne has had a largely disappointing first half of the season. So, McLaren's plans for 2019 appear completely up in the air.

McLaren's choice seemed relatively simple if Alonso stays: keep Vandoorne or bin him off for Norris. But what if Alonso leaves? Then McLaren would have no major-league lead driver, and a Vandoorne/Norris combination would surely not inspire confidence in the team given it is already unsure whether having only one of them next year is the right move.

This is how Sainz emerged as a possible option for McLaren alongside Alonso, although there's a romantic notion that he could also move there as his childhood idol's successor.

Sainz brings a powerful motorsport name, which has commercial value, and is an established midfield operator - something Vandoorne is not. But, crucially, thanks to Ricciardo's move, Sainz may no longer be the free agent he was going to end up as McLaren had thought.

There are other elements of the driver market to be settled, not least the second seat at Ferrari and what will happen at Haas and Sauber. They feel like clumsy pieces of a puzzle that has been changed completely by Ricciardo's shock move.

Right now, it is almost impossible to work out who will still be in the picture once it is finished.