Who should replace Ricciardo at Red Bull?

Daniel Ricciardo dropped a bombshell when he informed Red Bull he would be leaving the team at the end of the 2018 Formula 1 season to join Renault. The ramifications that this development will have on the driver market are wide-ranging, and obviously start at the team he leaves behind.

Pierre Gasly appears to be the favourite to land promotion from Toro Rosso, but Carlos Sainz Jr is in the frame as well.

Which of those two should Red Bull pick? Or should it gamble spectacularly and try to reunite its new engine supplier Honda with a ghost from its past?

Pierre Gasly

By Edd Straw
@EddStrawF1

Gasly holds one very significant trump card when it comes to deciding who should replace Ricciardo - he will have a full season of experience of the Honda engine under his belt by the end of this year.

The value of that to Red Bull cannot be understated. Not only will he know the package, its foibles, its strengths and weaknesses, but he will also have built up a good working relationship with the Honda personnel on a day to day basis. While information will have flowed freely between Toro Rosso and Red Bull on Honda's performance, Gasly will have lived and breathed it day in, day out.

Gasly lacks any serious baggage from his previous relationship either with Red Bull or Verstappen

With an unchanged driver line-up, Red Bull would lack that, so being forced into bringing in a replacement offers it this opportunity.

All of the above would also be a good argument for bringing in Brendon Hartley. But Gasly offers something more than that, because he has been hugely impressive this year in the Toro Rosso.

As a rookie (albeit one who started five races in 2017), Gasly has been overshadowed by the very justified buzz created by Charles Leclerc's performances for Sauber. But the 22-year-old has also been strong and is comprehensively outperforming the very accomplished and professional Hartley.

Three times Gasly has had a shot at a top result, and three times he has delivered. In both the Bahrain and Hungarian Grands Prix, he took 'Class B' pole position and dominated the midfield battle to earn fourth and sixth place respectively. And in Monaco, he finished seventh.

While ideally you'd say Gasly would benefit from another season or two to prepare for promotion to Red Bull, perhaps citing the warning from history over Daniil Kvyat's struggles when he was promoted to the senior team, he's shown enough to prove he's capable of delivering strong results.

Gasly is also a phlegmatic and likeable character who should fit in well, much like Ricciardo, which Red Bull could benefit from given the intensity of Verstappen in the other car. He's also bounced back from some difficult times earlier in his career, after Red Bull stood by him during a two-year victory drought in 2013-14.

While Sainz has far more experience, and is a strong and consistent performer capable of delivering eye-catching results - especially in the wet - and would do a very good job if selected, Gasly lacks any serious baggage from his previous relationship either with Red Bull or Verstappen. That should also appeal to Red Bull.

Carlos Sainz Jr

Adam Cooper
@AdamCooperF1

At the moment, Sainz technically already has the Red Bull job, unless the team changes its mind in the coming weeks.

When Helmut Marko and co had to negotiate their way out of Toro Rosso's 2018 engine supply contract with Renault last September, Sainz was the main bargaining chip. Red Bull loaned him out to Renault for the final four races of 2017, and for '18.

But he has remained a Red Bull driver throughout, and the plan was always for him to drive for Red Bull in 2019, should a vacancy arrive - which originally meant if Ricciardo departed for sunnier climes at Mercedes, or perhaps Ferrari. Sainz, in turn, made sure that he could only be obliged to return to drive for Red Bull, and not Toro Rosso.

The big problem for all parties is that Sainz did not enjoy a happy relationship with Verstappen at Toro Rosso

He has a deadline of September 30, by which time Red Bull must use him or lose him. In other words, if there was no vacancy at Red Bull, i.e. had Ricciardo been confirmed as staying, he would be a free agent. And if Red Bull's plans weren't clear by September 30, he would still be free, able to stay at Renault or move elsewhere.

But in the end, Ricciardo has walked and, in an unexpected twist, taken Sainz's seat at Renault.

When Sebastian Vettel announced that he was going to Ferrari late in 2014, Christian Horner and Marko made the corresponding decision to upgrade Daniil Kvyat from Toro Rosso overnight. Whether they would have made a different call with a little more time is impossible to say.

But now they do have time. Gasly isn't going anywhere, and Sainz is on a string until the end of September.

So, should they still recall Sainz, as per the plan? Some would argue that the Spaniard's momentum has been taken away by Nico Hulkenberg, and he'd be the first to admit that it's not been the season he wanted. He remains a great talent, as his opportunistic fifth place in the wet Hungarian qualifying session reminded us, but then Gasly was right behind him. He does, however, has far more experience than the Frenchman, and that will be valuable as the Honda relationship develops at Red Bull.

The big problem for all parties is that Sainz did not enjoy a happy relationship with Verstappen at Toro Rosso, and, like Ricciardo, he fears that Red Bull now revolves around the Dutchman. His desire to stay at Renault is now academic, but he remains in the frame for a McLaren seat. If Red Bull want him, he'll have no choice.

Fernando Alonso

Scott Mitchell
@ScottAutosport

If you're looking for a top-class, plug-in-and-play driver, there is no better option than Alonso. He is a two-time F1 world champion, has not lost any motivation or ability in his fifth barren season and, crucially, is on the market.

From a purely competitive point of view he'd surely be interested in escaping the malaise at McLaren for somewhere as effective as Red Bull. If, and this is a big if, Red Bull looks outside its pool of drivers, then Alonso is the best possible alternative.

He'll be a draw commercially and a success on-track. It would be somewhat silly for Red Bull chiefs to not even consider that (however briefly) if they feel there are any doubts over promoting Sainz or Gasly from within.

If you're looking for a top-class, plug-in-and-play driver, there is no better option than Alonso

So why not Alonso? Well, several reasons, chiefly the Japanese elephant in the room. Alonso lambasted Honda for three years while racing for McLaren and this was rarely well received by the manufacturer. Especially when he referred to its product as a GP2 engine on home soil at Suzuka...

But that was born from the frustration of yet another missed opportunity. Alonso's bad timing is legendary - he has raced with three of F1's four engine manufacturers in the V6 turbo-hybrid era but never at a time that could make him a race winner. Honda boss Masashi Yamamoto acknowledged this earlier this year when being asked about the hypothetical scenario of working with Alonso, who he called "a fabulous driver", again (in IndyCar).

However, assuming there is no Honda-sized obstacle, Alonso's major turn-off is that he's a political operator. Just look at how McLaren's top tier has been reassembled since Eric Boullier was axed - promoting Andrea Stella from head of race operations to performance director and creating a sporting director role for Gil de Ferran smacks of an Alonso influence.

With Alonso not afraid to throw his weight around and speak his mind, aligning him with Verstappen would probably produce fireworks Red Bull would likely be very keen to avoid.

It has had the option to go after Alonso in the past, of course, and ruled it out. But this would have been when considering more longer-term plans. If Red Bull wanted a one-year gamble, none would be as spectacular as the divisive Spaniard.