How Ferrari has engineered itself into a hole

The 2018 Ferrari is a good grand prix car, no question. But what it isn't is the car to build on last year's run at the world championship - yet. This means Ferrari heads into the business end of the Australian Grand Prix weekend looking like the big three's number three.

Sebastian Vettel was upbeat after practice, but the facts of the first day of serious running this season don't paint an encouraging picture. Almost three-tenths off on one-lap pace, just over three-tenths down on race pace and behind customer team Haas, and aerodynamic experiments involving back-to-backing its 2018 front wing with a version of last year's are evidence that all is not well at Maranello.

There's no reason for panic, of course. Last season Ferrari recovered from an iffy Friday in Australia to win, but that was off the back of very promising pre-season testing. This winter has gone OK for Ferrari, but all has not been smooth and it's possible that in its eagerness to stretch up and grab onto the coattails of Mercedes, Ferrari has over-reached.

The 2017 Ferrari was a strong car, good on the tyres, very consistent and particularly impressive on lower-speed corners. But while Mercedes went for evolution with its W09, Ferrari has gone the other way. While it's not exactly a revolution, it has followed the Red Bull high-rake approach, as well as adopting the longer-wheelbase route of Mercedes.

This might sound like taking the best of both worlds, and the idea was presumably to retain the strong characteristics of the 2017 car and marry them to big changes taken from its two rivals. But combined, they represent a big difference in the way the car works and its behaviour.

In testing, there were times when the rear ride height control appeared lacking, while the tea tray at the front of the underfloor was scraping on the ground in unusual places. Again, not a crisis, but indicative of a team that didn't quite have the depth of understanding that it needed of its new car.

This brings us to the front-wing test in free practice, where Kimi Raikkonen tried an adapted version of the 2017 wing - specifically the one that appeared at the United States Grand Prix with an additional lip below the tunnel at the base of the outboard section.

This will not have been done with any serious intention to use it for the rest of the weekend, but as a trial to try to understand some characteristic of the car with a known front wing from last year.

"Ferrari is still missing something and the front wing is the component that is critical to how it works with the track surface, so perhaps there are concerns the new wing is not working as predicted," says Autosport technical expert Gary Anderson.

"I don't think Ferrari has done enough over the winter, certainly not as much as Red Bull" Gary Anderson

"We always talk about airflow separation on anything close to the ground, mainly the front wing and diffuser. This happens to all the cars, but it's about understanding it and managing it when it does happen. That's what I think Ferrari might be struggling with.

"When the diffuser stalls more dramatically than you think it should, it will reduce rear downforce and make the car more nervous under braking and on corner entry. When the front wing stalls more dramatically than you think it should, it affects the whole car as the turbulent wake from that airflow separation is detrimental to everything behind.

"It looks as if Ferrari is more or less where we thought it would be from testing. I don't think Ferrari has done enough over the winter, certainly not as much as Red Bull."

It could well be that Ferrari isn't far away from understanding its package, and that from today's running it has answered some of the questions it had about why the car isn't working quite as well as it hoped.

The fact that it's still close to the outright pace, rather than floundering, suggests the car is not too far off. But after eight days of testing, you can't assume that another three hours of running, even in more representative conditions, will allow a switch to be flicked.

Vettel suggested the car has got the performance in it, although it seems optimistic to think that Ferrari could repeat its 2017 Melbourne turnaround. This might take a little longer to get on top of.

"We tried to actually change the balance a bit, because I didn't feel very comfortable," said Vettel. "I think we still have quite a lot of performance in hand.

"I'm not too worried because I know if I get everything right, we should be in better shape. It looks to be close, which is good news, so we should be able to do something tomorrow."

The definition of "something" is a vague one. Certainly, Ferrari is still up there in the big three and, at worst, it's going to have its cars in the top six in qualifying - hardly a crisis.

But it's clear there is work to do. Ferrari has engineered itself into this modest hole, and now it must prove - as it can do - that this is more about taking one step back to take two forward than a more worrying trend that could prevent it mounting a title challenge this season.

Mercedes, by contrast, continues to look strong with a car that is based on an aggregation of thousands of improvements from last year's all-conquering machine.

On track, Hamilton looked imperious. He's always strong around Albert Park, and it's no surprise that he was rapid, but the way he was able to attack the corners, rotate the rear on the brakes on entry and keep the car planted through the corners will have filled his rivals with dread. And not just those in a Ferrari, because the Red Bulls, while brisk, looked a handful at times.

This was the first time we've seen all the teams running at the same time with some kind of performance objective. While there are caveats about what today's qualifying simulations showed, they do create what is probably the most relevant competitive order we've witnessed so far.

It broadly reflects what testing suggested, with Mercedes up front ahead of Red Bull, and Ferrari third-fastest. Impressively, Haas was not only best of the rest in fourth, but in a no-man's land four-tenths off the big three and six-tenths ahead of the rest.

McLaren had a couple of tenths on Renault, with Force India and Williams not far behind. Unsurprisingly, Sauber was cast adrift at the back, almost a second off ninth-fastest Toro Rosso.

In Saturday practice we will see more representative qualifying simulations ahead of the first competitive session of the year. But with all the drivers, except for Daniel Ricciardo, having at least a decent crack at a lap time on supersofts despite the red flag, today is still the best indicator so far in 2018.

Raw pace

1 Mercedes 1m23.931s
2 Red Bull 1m24.058s
3 Ferrari 1m24.214s
4 Haas 1m24.648s
5 McLaren 1m25.200s
6 Renault 1m25.390s
7 Force India 1m25.413s
8 Williams 1m25.543s
9 Toro Rosso 1m25.925s
10 Sauber 1m26.814s

This also gives several pointers about the relative performance of the cars. First, the gap from the front of the midfield (Haas) to the big three is significantly smaller than last season. Using the average gap over 2017, the front of the midfield would have set a time of 1m25.766s at Melbourne - placing it behind even Williams. Haas is the big gainer, with a lap time gain that equates to 1.682s relative to the front compared to last year's average.

Mercedes in full-blown qualifying mode could probably stretch its legs

All of this is with the caveat that the gaps might not be representative, as Mercedes in full-blown qualifying mode could probably stretch its legs. But even so, it paints an encouraging picture for the coming season with the field less spread out than it was last year.

When it came to race pace, the picture changed a little. Red Bull and, remarkably, Haas led the way with their speed on ultrasofts. Mercedes, down in third, was close, but again Ferrari was giving away a few tenths.

Not only does this support the idea that Haas has broken away from the rest of the midfield, it also confirms that Ferrari is having problems. Realistically, Haas is not second fastest, and the fact that Romain Grosjean's ultrasoft run came towards the end of the session, presumably with a lower fuel load than those we are comparing it to, explains the hike.

The times below are based on a short, sharp, five-lap run on the ultrasoft tyres that the leading contenders are set to qualify and start the race on.

Long-run pace (ultrasoft)

1 Red Bull 1m28.647s
2 Haas 1m28.765s
3 Mercedes 1m28.780s
4 Ferrari 1m28.992s
5 Force India 1m29.719s (based on four-lap run)
6 McLaren 1m29.931s
7 Renault 1m30.223s
8 Toro Rosso 1m30.453s
9 Williams 1m30.581s
No ultrasoft run data for Sauber

The data for the supersoft and soft rubber is more sketchy because of diverging run plans, but Raikkonen's supersoft run was well off. However, Vettel's soft run was quicker than Valtteri Bottas's in the Mercedes by seven-hundredths per lap, which gives a little encouragement, but does not come close to cancelling out the concerning patterns elsewhere.

As for Red Bull, this hints that the pattern we saw for parts of the closing stages of last season, where it was slower in qualifying but could give Mercedes something to think about in the race, might be repeated. But it could also be that Mercedes still has something in hand, which on top of what could be a track-position advantage thanks to qualifying pace will make it difficult to beat.

What's more, Red Bull's chances are already compromised by the fact that Ricciardo has a three-place grid penalty for going too quick under the red flag that was thrown on his abortive qualifying simulation lap.

As of today, you'd back Mercedes to set the pace, with Red Bull snapping at its heels and Ferrari third best. The spread between the three isn't that big, but given Ferrari's objective for the season was to get on terms with F1's dominant force and win the world championship, it's at best been an equivocal start.