The winners and losers of F1 testing's opening day

There's a lot of truth in the usual sayings about the first day of testing not telling you a great deal about the season to come, but there's always something you can learn if you know where to look. And the opening day of 2018 pre-season testing at Barcelona has given us some hints.

A glance at the timesheets shows Red Bull fastest ahead of Mercedes and Ferrari. But while it would be a bit early to get excited about a three-team battle for the championship, there are some very encouraging signs for the season and there were also a few surprises today, which made it well worth hanging around a very chilly Barcelona to learn a few things.

When it comes to analysing performance, what we've seen today is a very tentative indicator of where everybody stands. Combine that with trackside observations, gathered during a couple of hours watching trackside on an increasingly cold afternoon, and we can see who the winners and losers are.

Looking at performance, the big question is how the relative levels of the 10 teams have changed compared to last year. We're very limited on data this year, with just one tentative day in cold conditions so far, compared to the huge number of competitive days from last year, but it's still interesting to compare where teams are today compared to last season.

To do this, I've compared the 'supertimes' from last year - based on an average of the fastest lap from each grand prix by each team, expressed as a percentage - to what we saw today. Comparing the two figures gives a figure for the gain or loss compared to 2017.

Testing performance compared to 2017

Each team's supertime, expressed as %

So, this shows two Renault-powered teams at the top, which is good news for that engine manufacturer. Interestingly, the Toro Rosso is at almost exactly the level today relative to the rest as it was last season on its switch to Honda, while Mercedes and Ferrari are in similar shape despite having made a very slight loss - to be expected given they were usually the pacesetters.

Interestingly, if you compare the laptimes from today to the first day of testing last year, Mercedes has gained 1.422s and Ferrari 1.372s, which suggests the two teams could be in a similar ballpark this year to last year, relative to each other.

The track action was patchy today because of the low temperature and the fact that it kept spotting with rain before coming down properly at the end of the day. It got to the point where I could barely hold onto the stopwatch with my fingers!

But all you can do is look at the confidence the cars are giving the drivers. Getting the tyres up to temperature is a challenge, but inherent car characteristics show themselves very clearly when you are struggling for grip rather than being covered up by the rubber working well.

If I was to rank the cars in order of what looked confidence-inspiring, I would say it's Ferrari, Red Bull, then McLaren. Those are the three cars that look to be doing what the driver wants them to. The Ferrari tracks particularly well straight out of the pits.

On the first lap it looked OK, but once the tyres were up to temperature Kimi Raikkonen could lap consistently without any of the problems that others encountered through Turns 1-3, where I was watching. Just like last year, the Ferrari looks like a good, consistent confidence-inspiring car.

The fact the car was doing what Alonso wanted it too is a big plus for McLaren. But while that's a win, it was also a loser on the day

Looking at the aerodynamic package, Ferrari has a similar concept to last year with the shorter sidepods and its different approach to the aerodynamic parts in that area compared to Mercedes. The approach is a lot less sophisticated - in other words, the bits doing the same job aren't as complicated as on the Mercedes - and because of that I've got a feeling the surfaces might be more robust aerodynamically.

That will certainly be a good thing in traffic in particular. If you have the surfaces all working absolutely to the limit, introduce a bit of turbulence and it will all fall down. The more robust, the better. This is a bold decision by Ferrari, but maybe the team learned a bit last year from running well in traffic rather than taking off from the front.

It does look like Ferrari has made steps with the car, and while we can't draw too many conclusions about its outright performance until the fuel loads come down, it certainly seems to have done a good job.

As for Mercedes, it looked very tentative to drive when I was watching, with Lewis Hamilton at the wheel this afternoon. He couldn't attack the corner the way he normally would, as the rear often stepped out. At that point, you are playing catch up all the way through that first part of the track because the entry to Turn 1 sets up the whole sequence. Once he'd got a bit more tyre temperature up, the car looked OK (although never as good as the Ferrari) but that characteristic is still inherently in there.

Daniel Ricciardo was fastest today for Red Bull, and if you were judging purely by Monday you could say it's joined the club with Ferrari and Mercedes. The car looked strong on track, it did what the driver wanted and it was a lot better than this time last year, when the rear just wouldn't stay in line on the power.

Based on the pace, you'd also say Renault has joined that group, although looking at the car on track it's not quite so convincing. Watching Carlos Sainz Jr, it's clear the car wasn't giving him what he wanted. He was locking up the brakes a bit, coming in too quick and missing the apex too often. So, that needs to be tidied up, but even so it was a promising day for Renault especially in Nico Hulkenberg's hands earlier in the day when the conditions were better.

In fact, it was promising for all the Renault-engined cars. For while McLaren was actually fractionally worse off on pace than it was last year, the fact the car was doing what Alonso wanted it to is a big plus. What we need to see now is evidence that the laptime is there to get near Renault and Red Bull.

But while that's a win, McLaren was also a loser on the day. After three years with Honda, McLaren has the new engine partner it wanted, but there's a lot of pressure on the team to deliver now. It's got a proven top-class opponent with the same engine in Red Bull, plus an improving works team to take on. Last year, Honda could be blamed for everything, this year McLaren is going to be exposed.

So, the last thing it needed to happen was for Alonso's right-rear wheel to come off during the morning's running. I still don't entirely understand how it happened, because even if it's not tightened enough you'd expect it to show up before the fourth lap. And if it does come undone, the wheel nut is supposed to be retained by a separate mechanical device.

It might just be a one-off incident, but dragging the floor through the gravel and doing some damage doesn't help. McLaren needs to ensure it's operating well to get the most out of the Renault engine and to exploit what looks like a good baseline car.

As for old engine partner Honda, in the back of the Toro Rosso it managed 93 laps today. That compares to 208 laps for the whole first four-day test last year, which is a good step for Honda - and the team seems happy with where it is compared with Renault.

Looking at the performance step with the engine change, Toro Rosso is almost in exactly the same place it finished last season. Considering the problems Honda has had, you'd say that's a win for today that, combined with the reliability, makes it a promising start for this new partnership.

Looking at the car on track, it does seem to have a front-end problem - it just washes out suddenly and that's nothing to do with the engine, it's set-up and chassis. So, that's something that needs attention.

Overall, the Toro Rosso and Honda partnership has started off well, so if they can keep that dialogue right as things get serious and stop the inevitable pressure turning into tension, then it could work for both sides.

The Haas looked like a bit of a handful in Romain Grosjean's hands, and he still wants to brake five metres later than everybody else. But he repeatedly didn't make the corner at Turn 1 as the rear stepped out and he had a few moments and even a half-spin. The car doesn't have the grip to do what he wants, and Haas could be up against it this year.

It's difficult to draw too many conclusions about Williams, especially as Sergey Sirotkin didn't get to do any proper laps in the afternoon. Williams does appear to have dropped off a bit, but it's hard to say how much of that is down to the fact last year the team pacesetter was often Felipe Massa and it doesn't have that benchmark this year.

Force India I don't understand, because it put a rookie driver in the car in Nikita Mazepin, who had an off, so it hasn't got any feel for the car's pace from today.

Given how bad the weather forecast is, I'd have got the race drivers out. It's all very well having a plan to let a different driver do day one, but Force India is usually willing to adapt to circumstances and should have got one of Sergio Perez or Esteban Ocon in the car to make the most of it.

Overall, it was a good day for the Renault-powered teams. But it also suggests that some of the trends from last year in terms of the pace, and characteristics, of the Ferrari and Mercedes might have carried over.

As I said at the start, it is difficult to draw conclusions from the first day of testing. But there's some interesting pointers for what to keep an eye on.