Red Bull has winning pace but a major problem

Red Bull's resurgence has been one of the stories of the second half of the 2017 Formula 1 season, to the point where it appears to have the pace to fight for race victories on merit regularly - just as Max Verstappen successfully did in Malaysia last month.

On paper, day one in Mexico looked more promising than ever, with Daniel Ricciardo fastest on single-lap pace and the little race-run data that was produced hinting Red Bull might have the edge on race pace. But there's one huge hurdle to be cleared: how to gain track position.

The single-lap pace is all well and good, with Ricciardo just over a tenth of a second faster than Lewis Hamilton, but it would be naive to expect that to carry over into qualifying.

Pure pace ranking

1. Red Bull (Ricciardo) 1m17.801s
2. Mercedes (Hamilton) 1m17.932s
3. Ferrari (Vettel) 1m18.051s
4. McLaren (Alonso) 1m18.508s
5. Force India (Perez) 1m18.728s
6. Renault (Hulkenberg) 1m18.775s
7. Williams (Massa) 1m19.206s
8. Toro Rosso (Hartley) 1m19.423s
9. Sauber (Wehrlein) 1m20.318s
10. Haas (Magnussen) 1m20.318s

With the big three teams tightly packed at the top on Friday pace, it's unlikely any will have a big qualifying advantage - notwithstanding the usual caveats about track conditions, fuel loads and the fact that a lot could change overnight. But Renault-powered Red Bull knows it has less in the metaphorical tank when it comes to the engine on Saturday.

"In qualifying, it's always a bit difficult to say because we don't have the power mode," said Verstappen. "But we'll be there for sure [on race pace]."

That's encouraging for Red Bull, and suggests that its chances of winning the race could depend on the laps Verstappen and Ricciardo can pull out of the bag on Saturday afternoon.

Renault-powered Red Bull knows it has less in the metaphorical tank on Saturday

So can we be certain Red Bull has the race pace? Well, it's difficult to be absolutely sure because of the programmes the two drivers ran.

But the most significant glimpse, and it's a two-lap snapshot, into what the RB13 might be capable of came in the start of Verstappen's long-run on ultra-softs. This was before he was called in with high oil-consumption readings.

While the rest of the long-run ranking is based on taking a five-lap run using ultra-softs (with anomalous slow laps discarded), that means Red Bull's place at the top of the pile owes itself only to those two laps.

Long run ranking

1. Red Bull (Verstappen) 1m21.224s*
2. Mercedes (Hamilton) 1m21.679s
3. Ferrari (Vettel) 1m22.062s
4. Force India (Perez) 1m22.367s
5. Renault (Sainz) 1m22.494s
6. McLaren (Alonso) 1m22.765s
7. Williams (Massa) 1m22.914s
8. Toro Rosso (Hartley) 1m23.265s
9. Sauber (Wehrlein) 1m23.381s
10. Haas (Magnussen) 1m23.488s

To balance things up a little, the 0.455s gap between Red Bull and Mercedes drops to 0.180s, with Ferrari closing in by a similar margin if we just look at the first two laps of the run.

But if we take that as representative, again with the caveat that there have been times when Red Bull's Friday race pace relative to Mercedes and Ferrari hasn't carried into Sunday, then there's still an edge.

So assuming Red Bull doesn't have a qualifying advantage and won't have a car on the front row, how does it go about converting a potentially slender edge into victory?

With a gap of only a couple of tenths far from enough to guarantee making an easy pass given the strong power of the Mercedes engine even with DRS advantage, that brings us to strategy. But sadly there appears to be little to get excited about there.

Hamilton completed a run of 28 laps on the ultra-softs after his performance run. His pace at the end of it was bang on the average listed above - putting in a 1m21.646s on his final quick lap. That means degradation is, for our purposes, non-existent.

It will be the physical wear that will dictate how long the ultra-softs can last rather than thermal degradation. This also means it's a nailed-on one-stop race, with the main interest the relatively small gap between the super-soft and soft compounds, which Pirelli puts at 0.6s. Pirelli suggests that higher temperatures could make the soft a valid alternative to the lower temperature working range super-softs.

This scenario seems less likely, although that will be influenced by the conditions. And even if softs do come into play, that's hardly good news for Red Bull given the pace of Mercedes and, in particular, Hamilton (who has only one set of softs for Mexico and has kept that in the bank) on that rubber.

As for Ferrari, there is likely more to come there. Sebastian Vettel described its race pace on Friday as "so-so", with improvements expected for Saturday. So that's an extra complication for Red Bull.

The odds are stacked against Red Bull even if its pace advantage of, let's say, two tenths of a second is genuine in race conditions. Doubly so given its strategic toolbox looks to be lacking in tricks.

There is a positive for Red Bull in that Mexico City's Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez is an unusual circuit in so many ways. At an altitude of 2285 metres, the air is significantly less dense. The difference in air density is 22-23% what it would be at sea level (there are factors beyond altitude influencing this).

This is significantly out of line with all other circuits. The second highest F1 venue is Brazilian Grand Prix track Interlagos, which is at an altitude of 800 metres.

The odds are stacked against Red Bull even if its pace advantage is genuine

This has two impacts for Mexico. Firstly, despite the cars running in high-downforce trim, they are actually running with a lower level of downforce than at Monza. Secondly, the less dense air means the turbocharger has to work a little harder to maximise the power. The aero side of that equation certainly helps Red Bull, the turbo side less so.

Low downforce means not only is it difficult to switch the tyres on, but drivers are struggling for grip everywhere. And if you are behind, as Red Bull might be, and trying to overtake then less drag thanks to less air density means less drag reduction from the DRS.

"Every year is tricky here because it's just always very slippery with the altitude and low downforce because of that," was Kimi Raikkonen's summary of the unique challenge of this track.

But there's no doubt that this is a race where things happen, and overtaking opportunities do seem to present themselves for good racers. And that's where Red Bull might just have its trump card.

In Ricciardo and Verstappen it has two of the best wheel-to-wheel racers out there, who are both capable of nailing an on-the-edge qualifying lap.

And that might be the area of best hope for Red Bull. For Ricciardo thinks that it might not take too much more pace to be found overnight to have a shot at a strong Saturday performance.

"We know Mercedes have more on Saturday, so I think we still have to find a few tenths if we want to stay ahead of them tomorrow," he said.

It's an indicator of how far Red Bull and Renault have come that a few tenths might be all that's needed. After all, in the first four races of 2017 this was a car that couldn't get within three quarters of a second of pole on Saturday.

The fact is that being there or thereabouts on Sunday is now a given for Red Bull. Mexico will show just how important qualifying pace is if it's to become more than an occasional winner.