The fresh hell facing Alonso's future

Perhaps now the pieces are finally beginning to fall into place. Renault's signing of Carlos Sainz triggered news that Toro Rosso and McLaren will swap engine suppliers in 2018, the one going to Honda, the other to Renault.

Immediate thoughts on this. One, a pairing of Sainz and Nico Hulkenberg looks mighty strong; two, unless he can reach a deal elsewhere, sadly Robert Kubica will not be returning to Formula 1 in the near future; three, it would be just Fernando Alonso's luck for Honda finally to come good with Toro Rosso - after which it would seem but a small step for Red Bull to follow the same route...

Alonso, like Chris Amon in a previous era, has traditionally made poor decisions when changing teams - even if, at the time, there seemed good reasons for them. It looked, for example, like a sound plan to sign with McLaren for 2007, and it appeared that way, too - after five years with middling Ferraris - to go back there in 2015, when McLaren was again to be with Honda, perhaps reviving the glory years of the partnership.

That was Fernando's thinking, but it has not turned out that way. Yes, he has been hugely paid, and Honda has pumped cash into McLaren, but to date the company's hybrid engines have been a disaster, in terms of both power and reliability.

Thus, for some little time, McLaren has been casting about for an alternative, with Mercedes logically its first choice, Ferrari its second. As happened with Red Bull, at the height of the team's dissatisfaction with Renault a couple of years ago, both declined, and you can understand why: no company wants to risk beating itself.

Just as there was no enthusiasm for supplying Red Bull, which has - in Adrian Newey - the best designer, nor was there any for servicing McLaren, which has - in Alonso - the best driver. Makes sense to me.

A friend of mine - a retired driver - has a theory, expounded only partly in jest, that at some point Dieter Zetsche and Sergio Marchionne must have shaken hands on a deal: 'If we don't sign Alonso, and you don't, neither of us will have to worry about him...'

And this, of course, applies not only to their own teams, but also any other which uses their engines. Not much doubt where the power really lies in the Formula 1 of today.

"Whatever Alonso drives next year, though, my hope is that it will allow him to be back where he belongs, disrupting the comfy Hamilton-Vettel axis"

Thus, McLaren's only alternative to Honda was Renault, by no means on equal terms with Mercedes or Ferrari, but still clearly a step up: why else would McLaren, now a customer again, sacrifice free engines, and investment believed to be worth about $100 million a year?

Once in a while, to keep pressure on Honda (something at which Ayrton Senna was uniquely adept), Alonso has publicly made clear his discontent at the lack of progress, and some have criticised him for it. Every time he has got in the car, though, Fernando has driven the wheels off it, and his continuing commitment has been remarkable.

How, one wonders, would Lewis Hamilton or Sebastian Vettel have coped with a grossly uncompetitive car for seasons on end?

It has been believed for some time that McLaren, if it wished to keep Alonso, had to call time on Honda. While nothing is officially confirmed at the time of writing, the team will use Renault engines next year, and the assumption is that Fernando will remain on board - as we said earlier, he is not exactly spoiled for choice.

There is, though, another possibility, which brings to mind a chat with Niki Lauda after qualifying at Montreal three years ago: Nico Rosberg and Hamilton were on the front row, followed by Vettel's Red Bull - and then Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa. "Thank God," Niki murmured, "Alonso is not in a Williams..."

Towards the end of that season, when Fernando's frustration with Ferrari - in particular with its team manager, the hopeless Marco Mattiacci - was boiling over, Pat Symonds said that while he would love to see him at Williams, the team was not yet ready for a driver of his stature, but in a few years it might be a different story.

Rob Smedley, following his time at Maranello, has long thought Alonso the best, and now, with Paddy Lowe at the helm, Williams have made him a firm offer.

It is a matter of fact that, financially, Frank's team cannot compete with McLaren, let alone Mercedes, Ferrari or Red Bull, but the likelihood is that, whatever he does in 2018, Alonso's retainer will anyway be reduced, and that in itself may not be a big problem. As Martin Whitmarsh once told me, "Of course Fernando's highly paid, but actually - unlike some - he's not one who would be motivated by money".

What he wants above all is a competitive car, and of greater concern to him might well be the size of Williams's development budget.

In considering his options, the reputation of the quietly impressive Lowe will be something for Alonso to consider - but the really intriguing aspect of the Williams offer is that it would give him access to Herr Zetsche's much vaunted power units.

Honda apart, Fernando has been enthusiastic about his car this season, and the likelihood is that the McLaren chassis will again have the edge on Williams next year. What it will not have, though, is a Mercedes engine, so it's all a bit of a conundrum, is it not?

Alonso likes McLaren, feels at home there, and it will surprise me if he does not stay. Whatever he drives next year, though, my hope is that it will allow him to be back where he belongs, disrupting the comfy Hamilton-Vettel axis.

As Stefano Domenicali, with whom he worked at Ferrari, said last week: "It's not easy for Fernando to make a decision, but I hope he can get it right, because he deserves the best - he's very great, we all know that."