Why Monza is a big test of Vettel's bold claim

"We were on average a second off, or nearly a second off, in Silverstone so it's a big step. I'm very, very happy. I think we are on the right track and I don't think we have a circuit we should fear, going from now."

This is how Sebastian Vettel summed up Ferrari's Belgian Grand Prix, where it surprised even itself with how strongly it carried the fight to Mercedes on a track that ordinarily shouldn't have suited it.

But Monza is a different story altogether. Ferrari's home circuit it may be, but that confers no special advantage for the team in red. There are many reasons it should genuinely fear being outgunned by Mercedes in its own backyard, despite that encouraging performance at Spa last time out.

Power games

Much has been made of Mercedes' decision to introduce a new engine specification for Spa, one race before the FIA reduced the limit on burning oil in the combustion chamber from 1.2l/100km to 0.9l/100km, and whether that has caught out Ferrari, which will remain on its 'Silverstone-spec' engine for Monza.

Regardless, of all circuits remaining on the calendar, Monza is the one where pure horsepower counts for the most. A lap of this track is little more than 1m20s long, and around 60 of those 80 seconds are spent at full throttle.

Ferrari has improved greatly as this V6 hybrid turbo engine formula has evolved since 2014, but the data suggests Mercedes still has an edge in the pure power stakes, particularly in qualifying trim.

Analysing the speed trap numbers from the last race at Spa, where Mercedes introduced that new engine specification - believed to be worth around a tenth of a second - the advantage Mercedes still holds over Ferrari is clear.

Speed trap data recorded at the top of Eau Rouge in qualifying registered the fastest Mercedes at 197.2mph; Ferrari at 193.8mph. From there, it is full throttle to the speed trap at the end of the Kemmel Straight, where Mercedes was logged at 211.6mph and Ferrari at 206.6mph.

That's a 3.4mph deficit as the cars accelerate through the gears from La Source, rising to 5mph as they blast along in top gear at full throttle.

As Vettel pointed out on Thursday, Ferrari hasn't brought a new engine to Monza, so it is not going to claw that deficit back simply by cranking up its power unit - though of course it will have more power to play with on Saturday than was made available on Friday.

That means Mercedes should still hold a clear advantage when the cars run at full power in Q3.

Not enough corners

Ferrari made the most of its car's main strength through the twisty second sector at Spa. Kimi Raikkonen was quickest for most of the weekend there before he messed up his final lap in Q3.

Valtteri Bottas admits the Ferrari is better than the Mercedes when more peak downforce is required. But that comes with a penalty of drag, and Monza does not require the same compromise as Spa does.

Ferrari will not enjoy as much time to ram home its cornering advantage over Mercedes as it did at Spa

It's a low-downforce track plain and simple - trim as much wing as you can get away with and ask the drivers to simply hang onto the car though the chicanes, Lesmos and the Parabolica.

Mercedes' superior efficiency in this regard means it should be able to trim a bit less from its car and rely on the engine to still pull it through.

Ferrari will need to trim proportionally more downforce from the SF70H to achieve similar straightline speeds to Mercedes, or simply take the hit on the straights and try to make up time in the corners.

The higher-rake, shorter-wheelbase Ferrari definitely seems to have an advantage over Mercedes in slow and medium speed corners, hence its relative potency at places like Sochi, Baku and the Red Bull Ring.

But, given only 25% of the lap is spent in such corners at Monza, Ferrari will not enjoy as much time to ram home its cornering advantage over Mercedes as it did at Spa.

Analysis of the sector times on Friday at Monza suggested Mercedes was quicker than Ferrari through sector two (Roggia chicane and the Lesmos), with Vettel clawing some time back in the final sector (Ascari and Parabolica to the finish). This was most likely with the aid of a tow given Vettel was 0.208s quicker through this section than Raikkonen and almost a tenth up on Bottas, who definitely had a tow, according to Hamilton.

The slipstream effect is very powerful at Monza, as evidenced by the surprisingly strong performance of the underpowered McLaren-Hondas on Friday, but can be difficult to execute consistently as a strategy.

Perhaps Ferrari will use a similar tactic tomorrow. It will need to try something, because as Force India deputy team principal Bob Fernley says, this is ordinarily "a Mercedes track, no question".

Tyre choice suits Mercedes

One respected engineer described Pirelli's tyre choice for this race as "very conservative". Simulations suggest it would possible to bring the ultra-soft to Monza and still complete the race with just one stop.

Mercedes usually enjoys an advantage when the weather is cool and the tyres are at the harder end of the spectrum, and the W08 should be strong on the soft compound in particular here.

This range of compounds was last used at Silverstone, and before that in Baku - both venues at which Mercedes has enjoyed its largest advantage over Ferrari this season.

Ferrari may have trouble getting these compounds to work properly (as in Baku), which will play into Mercedes' hands, but if the temperature continues to climb that will most likely aid Ferrari's cause, as it tends to do relatively better when track temperatures are high.

That was borne out by the relative gaps between the top two teams in each practice session. Ferrari was over a second adrift in FP1, before closing to within two tenths of Mercedes in FP2.

LONG RUN RANKING (super-soft)

1. Mercedes (Hamilton) 1m24.644s (4 laps)
2. Ferrari (Vettel) 1m25.456s (5 laps)
3. Red Bull (Verstappen) 1m25.894s (12 laps)
4. Force India (Ocon) 1m26.121s (13 laps)
5. Williams (Massa) 1m26.241s (14 laps)
6. Haas (Grosjean) 1m26.286s (4 laps)
7. Toro Rosso (Sainz) 1m26.317s (2 laps)
8. Renault (Palmer) 1m26.580s (7 laps)
9. McLaren (Alonso) 1m26.766s (11 laps)
10. Sauber (Wehrlein) 1m28.637s (3 laps)

LONG RUN RANKING (soft)

1. Mercedes (Bottas) 1m24.668s (3 laps)
2. Red Bull (Ricciardo) 1m25.647s (10 laps)
3. Force India (Ocon) 1m25.490s (7 laps)
4. Williams (Massa) 1m25.774s (7 laps)
5. Ferrari (Vettel) 1m25.888s (5 laps)
6. Haas (Grosjean) 1m26.457s (7 laps)
7. Renault (Palmer) 1m26.682s (6 laps)
8. McLaren (Vandoorne) 1m26.816s (4 laps)
9. Sauber (Ericsson) 1m28.612s (9 laps)
*Toro Rosso completed no long running on the soft compound

Daniel Ricciardo completed two laps on the super-soft compound near the end of the session that were enough to make him fastest of all on average during the long runs, but these are discounted considering he was running out of sync and on less fuel than the frontrunners.

Similarly, Romain Grosjean's Haas takes a benefit from running the super-soft at the end, but a penalty for using the soft compound at the beginning of the long runs. Sainz's two laps on the super-soft tyre represent the only meaningful long running Toro Rosso did in FP2, thanks to his subsequent engine failure and team-mate Daniil Kvyat's technical problems, so Sainz's laps are included to provide a reference.

Ricciardo's race engineer Simon Rennie voiced concern during FP2 that the super-soft runners were suffering from front tyre blistering as their stints progressed. This was a serious concern at Spa too, but was alleviated by the timely appearance of the safety car. That's one particular Silverstone demon that Ferrari didn't have to face again in Belgium, thanks to the two Force India drivers banging into one another.

The best Vettel can probably hope for in normal circumstances is to see his championship lead cut to nothing

Vettel says Ferrari has learned lessons and improved since Silverstone. The race here will be another big test of that claim, particularly considering how off the pace Ferrari was on the long runs.

"The day was difficult, with a lot of traffic in the end - not ideal to find a baseline," Vettel said.

"We can still improve a bit and have to work on the car. Monza is low downforce. You need confidence in the car, and that's missing a bit. Especially under braking we can improve to find the limit easier and properly feel the car. And turn on more power."

The Hamilton factor

Hamilton was in unbelievable form at Spa, seemingly able to carry speed through the corners with the W08's wings trimmed out that team-mate Bottas could not match.

Hamilton made the difference for Mercedes in sector two in qualifying at Spa, and has the capacity to do something similar here. He was absolutely mighty in beating team-mate Nico Rosberg to pole by nearly half a second at Monza last year.

Confidence under braking is also vitally important here, as Vettel alluded to, and this is an area in which Hamilton traditionally excels.

PURE PACE RANKING

1. Mercedes (Bottas) 1m21.406s
2. Ferrari (Vettel) 1m21.546s
3. Red Bull (Verstappen) 1m22.409s
4. McLaren (Vandoorne) 1m22.947s
5. Force India (Ocon) 1m22.977s
6. Williams (Massa) 1m22.985s
7. Toro Rosso (Sainz) 1m23.150s
8. Renault (Hulkenberg) 1m23.272s
9. Haas (Grosjean) 1m23.567s
10. Sauber (Ericsson) 1m24.894s

The fact Bottas topped the timesheet in second practice, with Ferrari only 0.140s adrift, suggests this fight is looking very tight indeed.

But this most likely doesn't represent the genuine picture. Hamilton produced a scruffy lap to go second fastest and said team-mate Bottas benefitted from a tow to reach the summit in FP2.

Hamilton's earlier performance on the soft compound - where he lapped almost three tenths quicker than Bottas and 0.332s clear of Raikkonen's Ferrari - might be a better indicator of what Hamilton is capable of when he gets everything together here.

"I've definitely carried over that same kind of driving [from Spa] to this weekend," Hamilton said. "FP1 was really good, FP2 was a little trickier, with the track being hotter, so the balance of the car was a bit inconsistent.

"Valtteri had lots of tows throughout the lap, which equates to quite a lot, and I just didn't have a very clean lap.

"Valtteri did a great lap. So, if we can lock out the front row tomorrow that would be amazing. We really don't know - Ferrari could up the ante tomorrow, we'll see.

"But stopping them from getting a top-two finish would be pretty special - particularly on their 70th anniversary weekend."

History as your guide

Ferrari has a poor track record at its home race in recent years. It hasn't qualified on pole or won at Monza since Fernando Alonso's 2010 triumph. The closest it's come to pole is Raikkonen's 2015 effort, when he got within 0.234s of Hamilton's pole time. Last year, Ferrari's deficit ballooned to 0.837s.

Ferrari has generally pushed Mercedes hard in qualifying this season, but on the pure power tracks - like Bahrain and Baku - the gap has grown. Failing to qualify ahead here will likely prove a big disadvantage, owing to the lack of tyre degradation and consequent lack of strategic options.

"Today wasn't ideal, but we are not far off," Vettel added. "If we can get one or two things sorted for tomorrow, we'll be fine."

With Vettel driving at his absolute best, and perhaps the help of a tow from his team-mate, Ferrari might be able to sneak onto the front row again here. Perhaps pole is possible, if Hamilton underperforms.

But given how perfectly this track suits Mercedes, and the impressive race pace it's shown compared to Ferrari through much of Friday practice, this looks a race at which the best Vettel can probably hope for in normal circumstances is to see his championship lead cut to nothing.

It is down to Vettel and Ferrari to find a way to turn convention on its head again.