Why Spa could repeat Ferrari's Silverstone pain

After the elation of a perfect one-two result in Hungary, which produced a handy 14-point lead for Sebastian Vettel in the world championship, Ferrari could head into Formula 1's summer break in buoyant mood.

But now its summer holiday is over, the grid has reconvened for the Belgian Grand Prix, and Ferrari must face up to the reality of the massive challenge it faces in trying to retain this positive momentum.

Spa will be an acid test of Ferrari's stomach for this title fight. The Hungaroring was Ferrari's ideal circuit: short, twisty, smooth, hot. It suited Ferrari's high-rake, high-downforce philosophy perfectly, and the result was its best performance since Monaco.

But Spa is much more like Silverstone - long, expansive, high-speed, 67% full-throttle (according to Renault). In fact, the cars spend more than a minute of a lap of Spa absolutely flat-out, which is almost as long as it takes to complete a full lap of the Hungaroring.

Mercedes utterly dominated the British GP, finishing one-two despite a grid penalty for Valtteri Bottas. Ferrari was more than half a second behind Lewis Hamilton in qualifying, and tried so hard in vain pursuit in the race that both Kimi Raikkonen and Sebastian Vettel burst their front left Pirelli tyres.

Given Spa is basically the polar opposite track layout to the Hungaroring, and similar to the circuit at which Ferrari struggled more than at any other venue so far this season, the Scuderia's performance in Belgium should provide a clear signpost of the progress it's made since Silverstone, and how strong its title credentials will be over the championship run-in.

The balance of circuits over the remaining nine races on the calendar tend towards characteristics that should suit Mercedes more than Ferrari. Spa, Monza, Sepang and Suzuka are all fast tracks that require a high level of efficiency from the aerodynamics and engine. Mexico City's high altitude places it into this category too.

The Brazilian GP takes place at altitude as well, but the twisty Interlagos layout should bring Ferrari naturally back into play, in similar fashion to Austria's Red Bull Ring. Austin and Abu Dhabi venue Yas Marina look a bit less extreme in terms of the trade-off required between downforce/drag and power, while Singapore's Marina Bay street circuit should be cast-iron Ferrari territory, just as Monaco and the Hungaroring were.

It doesn't take a genius mathematician to see the odds are theoretically weighted in favour of Mercedes, which has generally had the quickest car across the balance of this season anyway, despite the fact it has proved tricky to set up at times and produced a few dud performances along the way.

Ferrari has certainly been more consistent, but there is no doubt it needs to find more pure performance on tracks that seem better suited to Mercedes, if it is to stand a real chance of taking this title fight all the way to the bitter end.

"How much you can compare Silverstone and here? I'm not sure," said Vettel ahead of Friday practice in Belgium. "There are some similarities, but there are other things which are very different. If we had to race at Silverstone again, we would do a lot better. We just didn't get a good weekend together.

"We don't want to settle behind them, we want to attack" Sebastian Vettel

"It's true Mercedes was very strong there. The fact that it's likely to be similar here obviously for us makes it fairly straightforward.

"I think we have only to gain. Because of how strong they were at Silverstone, and some similarities, they are the favourites going into here, but we don't want to settle behind them, we want to attack."

In order to launch the assault Vettel mentions, Ferrari has substantially reprofiled the aerodynamics on the SF70H for Spa, and has also introduced revised suspension, which should help it better control the ride height of the car - critical to ensure consistent aerodynamic performance from the powerful underfloor.

Ferrari got off to a good start in practice, with Kimi Raikkonen narrowly setting the pace in Friday's first session using the ultra-soft tyre. But, ominously, Hamilton was only 0.053 seconds slower despite setting his best lap time on softs. Hamilton then asserted his authority in the afternoon's second session, beating Raikkonen to the top spot by 0.262s.

Pure pace ranking (ultra-soft)

1. Mercedes (Hamilton) 1m44.753s
2. Ferrari (Raikkonen) 1m45.015s
3. Red Bull (Verstappen) 1m45.225s
4. Renault (Hulkenberg) 1m46.441s
5. Force India (Ocon) 1m46.473s
6. Toro Rosso (Sainz) 1m46.561s
7. McLaren (Alonso) 1m46.743s
8. Haas (Grosjean) 1m47.285s
9. Williams (Stroll) 1m47.861s
10. Sauber (Ericsson) 1m49.214s

Given the relative strengths of Ferrari and Mercedes, you would expect Ferrari to be faster through the twists of sector two and Mercedes to stretch its efficient legs through the flat-out blasts of sectors one and three.

Analysing the sector times, that is broadly how things are playing out. Raikkonen was fastest of all in sector two (Les Combes to the exit of Stavelot) and 0.130s up on Hamilton, but Hamilton enjoyed a clear edge in sectors one (from the startline through La Source and Eau Rouge to the end of the Kemmel Straight) and three (through Frere, Blanchimont and the Bus Stop chicane to the finish).

Hamilton was 0.128s quicker than Raikkonen in sector one and 0.169s clear in sector three. Interestingly, Vettel's Ferrari was fractionally quicker than Hamilton in both sectors one and three, but gave up a massive 0.460s to the leading Mercedes in sector two, where Vettel was almost six tenths slower than the sister Ferrari of Raikkonen.

It could be that Ferrari tried different wing levels on its two cars, meaning Raikkonen had more downforce on than Vettel, but Vettel suggested he could have been quicker simply by driving better.

"I wasn't doing the best job today," Vettel explained. "I didn't find the rhythm the way I wanted to, so I know I can go faster.

"In terms of car, the grip is fine, but we just need to find the right balance. I'm sliding a bit too much in places with the rear; washing out with the fronts. It's stuff I can influence by driving differently."

Experimenting with technique behind the wheel is something Hamilton seems to be benefiting from as Mercedes works to extract performance more consistently from the W08. He struggled to fourth last time out in Hungary, but found strong pace in the second half of the race after making a breakthrough with his driving.

"It's strange," Hamilton explained. "Because of the way our car is you apply a driving style, and it just doesn't like it. It's like trying loads of different techniques, and eventually figuring out that one works, then you can really grab on to it.

"It didn't feel great initially [in Hungary]. I've got to change a bunch of settings, and change my lines, and then eventually the car likes this spot, and you can really start to lean on it. That's where you can really stretch the wings of the car.

"I loved that discovery, but it's much nicer when you find out earlier in the weekend. It's something we're constantly challenged by. We don't have all the answers, but we have some ideas, and we're going to try to make sure that before we even get in the race, already by FP2, we're in that position."

"Eventually the car likes this spot and you can really start to lean on it. That's where you can really stretch its wings" Lewis Hamilton

Mercedes is not standing still with its car development either. Both Bottas and Hamilton are running with an updated engine here, as F1's standard bearer attempts to extract maximum performance from its package at this pivotal moment in the title battle. The next two races - Spa and Monza - require maximum power and efficiency from these hybrid power units.

Hamilton certainly looks as though he's dialed in quickly at Spa - lapping more than four tenths quicker than team-mate Bottas, who clouted the wall in practice one and struggled with rear instability on low fuel, particularly on the super-soft compound, in the afternoon. Hamilton was also very impressive on the soft compound - the hardest of those available at Spa.

"I'm not really understanding why others were not as quick on the soft tyre, but it's cool for me," Hamilton said. "I don't know if it's me that was less so [quick on the ultra-softs] or they got faster and weren't very fast on the softs. I did a good lap on the ultra-softs.

"I don't know if you're ever fully happy with the balance of the car. This is a circuit where you have the long straights, you need downforce in the middle sector, so you always need to find some kind of compromise.

"Ferrari never really show their hand on Friday. They are a bit slower then start to turn their engine up. They look quite quick, they are only a tenth or whatever it is - and they were very quick on the long run. They were faster on the long run."

Long run running

1. Ferrari (Vettel) 1m49.975s (4 laps) Ultra-soft
2. Mercedes (Hamilton) 1m50.575s (5 laps) US
3. Red Bull (Verstappen) 1m50.793s (4 laps) US
4. Renault (Hulkenberg) 1m51.574s (3 laps) Super-soft
5. Force India (Perez) 1m51.894s (6 laps) US
6. Toro Rosso (Sainz) 1m51.897s (4 laps) SS
7. Haas (Grosjean) 1m52.282s (2 laps) US
8. McLaren (Vandoorne) 1m52.284s (4 laps) US

*Williams and Sauber completed no meaningful long runs

The longer runs were compromised by the rain that washed out the final 25-minutes of second practice, but the running that did take place does make better reading for Ferrari fans. Still it's unlikely the six-tenths per lap gap Vettel enjoyed on average over Hamilton is wholly representative, especially when you consider the extra power Mercedes has yet to unleash from that updated engine.

Pirelli says it hasn't got a proper read yet on degradation of the tyres, owing to the poor weather, but estimates the ultra-soft will only last 10 laps and predicts a one-stop strategy is possible by swapping the ultra-soft for the soft compound after the first stint. Raikkonen managed a 1m50.926s average lap time on the soft compound over a six-lap stint, so that extra durability comes at a clear cost in terms of pace.

But durability may well count for a lot here. The tyres take a real beating on this circuit, which features one of the roughest surfaces on the calendar and will produce the highest loads yet seen on the cars and tyres, owing to its high-speed nature and the impressive rate of aerodynamic development on the cars.

The sequences of high-speed corners put a lot of energy into the rubber and it's very difficult to get them back under control - particularly the ultra-soft and super-soft, which have a low working range of temperature.

Pirelli says it saw some blistering during Friday practice, which will be a real concern for teams considering the longer running was cut short. Those battling to correct handling imbalances, such as Vettel described, will be even more worried.

Finding a decent balance is always tricky at Spa, thanks to the contrasting demands of sector two compared to one and three. Trimming out wing - in the way Red Bull did to extremes on Daniel Ricciardo's "F3" car - will create added problems keeping those tyre temperatures under control.

At the Red Bull Ring we saw race winner Bottas managing blistering on his rear tyres, while at Silverstone the limitation was blistering of the inside shoulder of the front tyres. If track and ambient temperatures rise over the course of the rest of this weekend - and rain stays away on race day - we can expect teams to struggle again with blistering.

Ferrari is here to give Mercedes a hard time, but that could be a tough ask

An understeer balance is the most useful for protecting the rear tyres through the course of a long stint, but if a driver needs to push hard during that stint it could create serious problems for that highly stressed front rubber. Too much oversteer will save the fronts but destroy the rears. The challenge is amplified by the fact the cars and tyres are under greater strain than ever, owing to those massive increases in G-force.

Ferrari ran into serious front tyre trouble at Silverstone, as it over-reached trying to keep up with Mercedes, with disastrous results. The Scuderia simply cannot afford a repeat at Spa - where it ran into trouble with Vettel when it tried a long stint on mediums two years ago.

Vettel says Ferrari is here to give Mercedes a hard time, but that could be a tough ask on a track that looks ideally suited to Mercedes. Ferrari will hope its own developments prove enough to thrust it into victory contention, but the Scuderia must be careful how it treads in Mercedes' back yard. Vettel's title aspirations depend on it.