Gary Anderson: Ranking the 2016 F1 cars so far

Testing can often paint a very misleading picture, not only for the enthusiast but for the teams as well.

During my years on the Formula 1 pitwall, you could never come back to the factory after a test feeling you really knew what had happened. If you were quick, you always knew the big boys would be able to pull something out of the bag. If you were slow, you knew you had to dig deep and find something, and you hoped that by the first race weekend things would look different.

There are always reasons for a team exceeding or falling short of its performance goals. Sometimes, it is because you had a problem that made it impossible to show your true potential, or because the car was not in its latest specification. But, in general, as long as you were honest with yourself you would have an idea of where you stood.

We often hear teams make claims along the lines of "we were just going through our programme and times didn't matter". A likely story. No team goes to a test without looking very closely at everyone else's laptimes, and from that they will try to calculate a baseline with the car weights equalised, and work out what their rivals' times would have been on the same tyre.

This is what I have done using the laptimes from the first Barcelona test. I don't have the same resources in terms of man hours and computing power as the teams, but I have created a reasonable guide to performance. For some teams it makes for positive reading, but for others it's clear there is work to be done.

To come up with the potential laptime each car could have achieved on equal fuel load, I have looked at how many laps a car completed after setting its best lap and estimated the fuel-weight penalty based on that as 0.06 seconds per lap.

For tyres, I have estimated a time difference of 0.6s per compound step to correct for grip level. Different cars treat tyres differently, so the difference between compounds always varies from car to car, but this creates a good ballpark figure.

The 2016 medium-compound tyre is not the same as last year's, but by looking at the time each driver who has not moved teams did during last year's Spanish Grand Prix weekend, it gives an impression of who has progressed the most.

The Sauber is a good reference point, since it was using the 2015 car last week. Spain was the fifth race of last year, so its car will have developed as the season went on, but this is still a useful extra information point.

HEADLINE TIMES

Combined best laptimes of the week:

Pos  Driver             Car            Time       Gap      Tyre
 1.  Sebastian Vettel   Ferrari        1m22.810s           US
 2.  Nico Hulkenberg    Force India    1m23.110s  +0.300s  SS
 3.  Kimi Raikkonen     Ferrari        1m23.477s  +0.667s  US
 4.  Daniel Ricciardo   Red Bull       1m23.525s  +0.715s  US
 5.  Sergio Perez       Force India    1m23.650s  +0.840s  SS
 6.  Daniil Kvyat       Red Bull       1m24.293s  +1.483s  US
 7.  Alfonso Celis Jr   Force India    1m24.840s  +2.030s  SS
 8.  Nico Rosberg       Mercedes       1m24.867s  +2.057s  M
 9.  Marcus Ericsson    Sauber (2015)  1m25.237s  +2.427s  S
10.  Kevin Magnussen    Renault        1m25.263s  +2.453s  S
11.  Max Verstappen     Toro Rosso     1m25.393s  +2.583s  M
12.  Lewis Hamilton     Mercedes       1m25.409s  +2.599s  M
13.  Esteban Gutierrez  Haas           1m25.524s  +2.714s  S
14.  Valtteri Bottas    Williams       1m25.648s  +2.838s  S
15.  Romain Grosjean    Haas           1m25.874s  +3.064s  S
16.  Pascal Wehrlein    Manor          1m25.925s  +3.115s  S
17.  Felipe Nasr        Sauber (2015)  1m26.053s  +3.243s  S
18.  Fernando Alonso    McLaren        1m26.082s  +3.272s  S
19.  Jolyon Palmer      Renault        1m26.189s  +3.379s  S
20.  Carlos Sainz Jr    Toro Rosso     1m26.239s  +3.429s  M
21.  Felipe Massa       Williams       1m26.483s  +3.673s  S
22.  Jenson Button      McLaren        1m26.735s  +3.925s  S
23.  Rio Haryanto       Manor          1m28.249s  +5.439s  M

ADJUSTED TIMES

Tyre and fuel-adjusted times from test one, and 2015 Spanish GP times:

Pos  Driver      Car            Time       Gap       2015 Best	Gap	
 1.  Rosberg     Mercedes       1m23.907s	     1m24.681s	-0.774s
 2.  Hulkenberg  Force India    1m24.250s  +0.343s   1m28.082s	-3.832s
 3.  Vettel      Ferrari        1m24.430s  +0.523s   1m25.458s	-1.028s
 4.  Hamilton    Mercedes       1m24.509s  +0.602s   1m24.948s	-0.439s
 5.  Perez       Force India    1m24.790s  +0.883s   1m28.442s	-3.652s
 6.  Raikkonen   Ferrari        1m25.097s  +1.190s   1m26.016s	-0.919s
 7.  Ricciardo   Red Bull       1m25.145s  +1.238s   1m26.692s	-1.547s
 8.  Verstappen  Toro Rosso     1m25.213s  +1.306s   1m26.249s	-1.036s
 9.  Sainz       Toro Rosso     1m25.219s  +1.312s   1m26.136s	-0.917s
10.  Celis       Force India    1m25.260s  +1.353s   NA		NA
11.  Magnussen   Renault        1m25.263s  +1.356s   NA		NA
12.  Ericsson    Sauber (2015)  1m25.657s  +1.750s   1m28.112s	-2.455s
13.  Gutierrez   Haas           1m25.704s  +1.797s   NA		NA
14.  Grosjean    Haas           1m25.814s  +1.907s   NA		NA
15.  Bottas      Williams       1m25.828s  +1.921s   1m25.694s	+0.134s
16.  Kvyat       Red Bull       1m25.913s  +2.006s   1m26.629s	-0.716s
17.  Alonso      McLaren        1m26.082s  +2.175s   1m27.760s	-1.678s
18.  Palmer      Renaut         1m26.189s  +2.282s   NA		NA
19.  Wehrlein    Manor          1m26.345s  +2.438s   NA		NA
20.  Nasr        Sauber (2015)  1m26.473s  +2.566s   1m27.625s	-1.152s
21.  Massa       Williams       1m26.783s  +2.876s   1m26.147s	+0.636s
22.  Button      McLaren        1m27.039s  +3.132s   1m27.813s	-0.774s
23.  Haryanto    Manor          1m28.729s  +4.822s   NA		NA

The times tell their own story, but here are my impressions of where each team is after the first test in order of adjusted pace (2016 cars only):

1. MERCEDES

Rosberg seemed to find his mojo during the last few races of 2015 and he seems to have come back fighting fit. Losing the world championship to your team-mate two years in succession is a bit careless, but to do it for a third consecutive year would be downright irresponsible.

The car looks good both in terms of speed and reliability. So based on this test I am afraid to say the season looks like another two-horse race.

The Mercedes power unit has also been improved and all the Mercedes users will benefit from this. Collectively, this will increase the potential of Mercedes domination because the works team will know that little bit more about how to get the most out of the engine.

2. FORCE INDIA

Force India made up a lot of ground last season when it introduced the b-spec version of the 2015 car. The new car is a continuation of that very successful development path. When you introduce a major development like the B-spec version, it takes time to get the best out of it, so that is a logical step.

Has Force India closed the gap to Mercedes to just over 0.3 seconds? Probably not, but I think it is going to be a lot closer than it was at the end of 2015.

3. FERRARI

Last year, Ferrari was on average 0.8s away from Mercedes. Now it looks a bit closer, but I can't see it being able to mount a real championship challenge on current form.

Vettel is the clear number one, so that gives Ferrari the focal point it needs. But it's also time for Kimi Raikkonen to step up to the plate. He did have bad luck last year, but if he is to have an F1 future beyond 2016, he needs some big results.

4. RED BULL

Red Bull seems to be in the same place it was last year. So it's a case of nothing gained, nothing lost as yet, but it will be interesting to see what the picture looks like once the RB12 moves closer to Australian GP-spec during test two.

The hope is for some major steps forward when the influence of Mario Illien is felt on the Renault engine, but it's going to be mid-season before there's any chance of seeing this effect.

5. TORO ROSSO

The change from Renault to Ferrari power unit, even the 2015 specification one, can only be a positive. But the team didn't get the information required from Ferrari until late in the day, so I would expect there to be lots of room for improvement as the currently "compromised" chassis is updated to get the best out of the power unit.

6. RENAULT

This is a holding year for Renault while it builds itself back up to a proper works team again. In its final years as Lotus, a lack of finances meant it was raided by other teams for a lot of good people - and making up for that and upgrading to the latest equipment will take time.

With the regulation change for 2017, it could take a couple of years before we see the true potential of this team. So Renault just needs to be solid this season, and it looked no more than that in testing last week.

7. HAAS

F1's newest team has surprised everyone. It's not easy to come into F1 and look like a midfielder at the first test, but that's exactly what Haas did. This can only give the team great motivation.

The job will only get tougher, but other than a front-wing failure on the first day, the car ran well and should be a good baseline to move on from.

8. WILLIAMS

Williams always keeps quiet in testing. If any team has the right to say it's focusing on its own programme and be believed, this is the one.

But I would still like to see a bit more from it, since the Williams was one of only two cars to run slower than during the 2015 Spanish GP weekend. This is not a good omen, but we will have to wait and see what happens at the second test.

9. McLAREN

McLaren-Honda again seems to be struggling. The times were not very impressive and Alonso didn't really get running on the last day because of a coolant leak, but that is all part of the battle.

If it were a small team you could understand that, but not a team of this standing. The might of McLaren and Honda should be setting the standards, but it isn't.

10. MANOR

Manor's car is a little bit out on a limb conceptually and I'm not quite sure why that decision has been made. But with the switch to Mercedes power units, and with Mercedes protege Pascal Wehrlein in the car, the future seems as bright for this team as it has ever been.

Mercedes involvement can only be a good thing. If the Ferrari/Haas relationship gathers ground, perhaps the same can happen with Mercedes/Manor?