No sign of help for Rosberg
Nico Rosberg needs other cars to get involved in the battle at the front in Abu Dhabi, but as GARY ANDERSON and EDD STRAW explain, that seems unlikely
The Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is not quite the winner-takes-all scenario that is the stuff of title-decider dreams, as second will be enough for Lewis Hamilton even if Nico Rosberg wins.
During Friday practice, it will not have been the gap of 83 thousandths of a second to his team-mate that Rosberg will be concerned about.
Instead, it is the ongoing dominance of Mercedes, which once again had a comfortable cushion at the front of the field.
While it's no surprise to see Mercedes ahead, once again the margin of its advantage is eye-catching.
During Friday practice for the season-opening Australian Grand Prix, the fastest Mercedes was half a second clear of the chasing pack.
In the season finale, that gap was almost eight tenths, albeit over a longer lap in terms of total laptime.
Hamilton's single-lap pace advantage over Rosberg was negligible, suggesting that there's a good chance that the qualifying battle will be decided by a tenth either way.
As for the pair's long-run pace, it was difficult to draw any definitive conclusions about their relative speed.
Hamilton did a solid run on his set of super-softs after returning to the track following his performance run, whereas the equivalent run by Rosberg was more erratic. There was just a hint that Hamilton has the advantage.
The average laptime is meaningless as Rosberg's run included two markedly slow laps, when he dropped from the mid-to-high 1m47s bracket into the 1m49s.
Hamilton, by contrast, had a more conventional drop-off in pace. So while his average pace was significantly higher - almost half-a-second per lap, which is not representative - Rosberg was able to put in a 1m47.809s on his fifth flying lap of the run, at which time Hamilton was on a 1m48.248s.
Rosberg was certainly content with his day's work, even though he admitted that he didn't get everything together.
"It's been a good day and enjoyable on this track," he said. "It's gone OK, not perfect.
![]() Ricciardo could get closest to Mercedes, but 'close' is a relative term © LAT
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"I haven't managed to get all my laps together properly but I'm optimistic because I'm sure I'm going to get it together for qualifying.
"[Now we have to] adjust some settings and fine-tune."
On long-run pace, the next fastest car was Daniel Ricciardo's Red Bull, on average just over four tenths of a second per lap off Hamilton's Mercedes on a comparable run on super-soft rubber.
That is enough to ensure that, if it carries over into the race, Red Bull is not a serious threat to Mercedes, as even if track position is gained it should be relatively easy to pass.
As for McLaren, Kevin Magnussen did not do a representative long run on super-softs, while team-mate Jenson Button was just over a second and a half on average slower than the Mercedes pace.
As has often been the case, the most likely threat comes from Williams-Mercedes, which was again fastest in the speed traps, proving that it will not necessarily be straightforward for a Mercedes to get back ahead.
With Felipe Massa not doing serious long runs on the super-softs, Valtteri Bottas is the only driver that the car's pace can be judged by directly, and he was around a second per lap off.
![]() Rosberg had his heart set on Williams intervening © XPB
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But Massa's long run on the soft rubber was encouraging, averaging nine tenths off Hamilton's super-soft pace.
But even so, it might not be enough.
Gary Anderson: "The gap from Mercedes to Kevin Magnussen's McLaren was almost eight tenths and it wasn't much different right at the start of the season, which is impressive.
"When everyone else is trying to develop and keep working, Mercedes started on a higher rung of the ladder and has managed to stay there and even climb higher.
"I spent the second session at the end of the back straight around Turn 8/9 and while we talk about the Red Bull as being the best car in terms of chassis and aerodynamics, it didn't look that way today.
"The Mercedes stops better and the drivers can be more aggressive thanks both to the consistent grip and a stable mechanical platform.
"It's the same at the exit of the corner, with Mercedes' drivers able to get on the power and accelerate away and the Red Bull drivers not being able to the same.
![]() Rosberg's task is simple at least, but whatever he does may be in vain © XPB
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"As for the comparison between Rosberg and Hamilton, it's similar to what we've seen all season, with Lewis letting the car do the work and Nico seemingly trying to provoke it more.
"From up the in grandstand, where we were looking down with a television camera, you can see the hand movements very clearly.
"Presumably Lewis gets the same feedback from the car, but he doesn't feel the need to react because he knows that it's not costing time. He's just more at ease with the car.
"Rosberg perhaps isn't quite as on top of it. It's beneficial to drive as Hamilton is because any adjustments you make change the loading on the tyres and the car.
"The one advantage for Rosberg might be that he's better at building the tyres in qualifying by working the car harder.
"However you look at it, there is very little chance of other cars getting involved in the battle from behind, so both Mercedes drivers simply have to keep their heads above water in qualifying and they will take the front row.
"They then have to survive the first few corners because that is a fast section and if something goes wrong there, it's going to be a big one and not just a light bit of damage.
"It's only something going wrong in the race or reliability problems that can cost Hamilton the title because Rosberg is the only one who can beat him in a straight fight.
"But he has to be careful because in the last race of the season, there's always a lot of enthusiastic people, some of them with their futures up in the air, who want to make an impression and get ambitious.
"As for Rosberg, he just has to go out there and win the race."

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