Spa set to be F1 2014's fastest yet

Formula 1's August break wasn't expected to transform the competitive order. But the Belgian Grand Prix was seen as an opportunity for some of the Mercedes-powered support cast, Williams in particular, to have a chance to spring a surprise.

But with Mercedes comfortably ahead during Friday practice, three quarters of a second faster than the nearest challenger, it was a surprise to see Fernando Alonso's Ferrari as the best of the rest in third place on a day when there were a few shocks on the timesheets.

The big surprise was arguably Williams, which was over a second off the pace on headline speed, and around seven tenths of a second off on long-run pace. With Ferrari and Red Bull showing signs of promise, it suggests the battle for best of the rest could be more interesting than some anticipated.

Williams does tend to have quiet Fridays and run heavily, only showing its real pace on Saturday morning, so expect that trend to continue, but it makes for a muddy picture in the scrap behind Mercedes.

What was clear, however, was that the fastest times were quicker than at the same stage of the weekend last year.

GARY ANDERSON: "This is the first track where practice two has been faster than last year's in normal conditions and if it carries on as it has been in terms of the pace improvement, we could end up faster than pole was previously.

"Last year, pole was set in slightly damp conditions, so the track was a few seconds slower, but in 2012 pole was a 1m47.573s, with today's fastest a 1m49.189s, so it is possible.

"Why? This circuit does have a little altitude, particular at Les Combes, and the turbo will ensure you don't lose power there. Plus, you will get better acceleration off Eau Rouge thanks to the ERS package.

"So while this car has lost downforce, it might just prove to be faster here."

RAW PACE

Alonso surprised with the third quickest time © LAT

To nobody's great surprise, Mercedes locked out the top two positions, with Lewis Hamilton well ahead of team-mate Nico Rosberg.

Rosberg's lap was far from perfect, losing four-and-a-half tenths in the middle sector and ending up 0.604s slower.

Fastest times by car
 1 Mercedes (Hamilton)      1m49.189s
 2 Ferrari (Alonso)         +0.741s
 3 Williams (Massa)         +1.138s
 4 McLaren (Button)         +1.470s
 5 Toro Rosso (Kvyat)       +1.536s
 6 Red Bull (Ricciardo)     +1.788s
 7 Force India (Hulkenberg) +1.888s
 8 Sauber (Sutil)           +2.261s
 9 Lotus (Grosjean)         +3.007s
10 Marussia (Bianchi)       +3.578s
11 Caterham (Ericsson)      +4.861s

GARY ANDERSON: "The Mercs look good, but Hamilton seems to let the car flow more than Rosberg. He's not driving the car as hard as Rosberg, he just puts it in the right place and lets it load up, which shows he's at one with it.

"Rosberg is reacting more to the car, while Hamilton knows it will give the grip he needs.

"I was watching out on track at Pouhon in the afternoon and the Ferrari looks pretty tidy. Alonso has definitely got confidence in it, as normal, and he's happy to use the whole track.

"Kimi Raikkonen also looked OK, but not quite as good as Alonso. The Ferrari is definitely competitive, not in terms of trying to beat Mercedes, but certainly could be on for a stronger result than the disaster some predicted."

HAMILTON V ROSBERG LONG-RUN PACE

While the headline laptimes suggest Hamilton has a big advantage, things are a little different when you look at the long-run pace of the two Mercedes drivers.

Comparing nine counting laps of Rosberg's long run on softs (with anomalous slow laps eliminated) to the first nine counting laps of Hamilton's shows the pair are as good as identical.

Average pace
Rosberg 1m55.148s
Hamilton 1m55.156s

But look at the distribution of the laptimes and Hamilton does have a couple of laps earlier in his run that don't quite qualify for being eliminated, suggesting that he has a little more in reserve.

Rosberg and Hamilton are equally matched © LAT

It looks like advantage Hamilton, but how many times has that appeared to be the case on Friday but been turned around by Saturday?

RACE PACE

Taking into account runs of nine fastest laps, where possible, throws up an interesting case study in the form of Daniel Ricciardo.

Unfortunately, there are limitations to the data. With Sebastian Vettel out of action in the afternoon and Ricciardo spending a long mid-session spell in the pits, the Red Bull did not do nine counting laps on the run in question.

But as has often been the case, Ricciardo's pace was eye-catching. His average, based on only six counting laps, is actually slightly faster than the Mercedes. But it would be unfair to conclude Red Bull is the fastest car, because degradation would be a factor.

But it at least shows that the Red Bull is not as weak as some feared.

Below is how the average lap pace worked out on the long runs, but be wary of the Red Bull, Ferrari and Lotus figures, which are not over as many laps as the others.

Average pace
 1 Red Bull (Ricciardo)     1m55.142s (6 laps)
 2 Mercedes (Rosberg)       1m55.148s
 3 Ferrari (Alonso)         1m55.773s (5 laps)
 4 Williams (Massa)         1m55.838s
 5 Toro Rosso (Vergne)      1m56.320s
 6 Force India (Perez)      1m56.482s
 7 Lotus (Grosjean)         1m56.665s (6 laps)
 8 McLaren (Magnussen)      1m56.922s
 9 Sauber (Sutil)           1m57.334s

STRATEGY

With Pirelli going aggressive by allocating the soft and medium-compound tyres this weekend, there proved to be few surprises from the rubber in practice.

The soft rubber was up to two seconds faster than the medium over a single flying lap, showing it will be the tyre of choice for qualifying and getting through Q1 without using a set of options will be tough for most.

But the soft will remain the tyre of choice in the race as well. Unless, of course, it rains and that all goes out of the window, which is a very realistic possibility.

GARY ANDERSON: "It will be a fairly straightforward race strategically. It should be a two-stopper, with two stints on the softs and one on the medium."

LOTTERER'S DEBUT

Lotterer had a solid debut © LAT

Andre Lotterer's sole experience of the Caterham prior to Friday practice came in the simulator on Monday. Combined with his Jaguar F1 test experience from a dozen or more years ago, that was the limit of his preparation in grand prix machinery prior to today.

But as you would expect of a driver who is a class act in sportscar racing and a top performer in the Japanese Super Formula category, he adapted very well and ended up just ahead of team-mate Marcus Ericsson in the morning, and just behind in the afternoon.

GARY ANDERSON: "I knew Andre Lotterer in my days at Jaguar because he was with the F3 team and visited the factory a few times. He's very competent, you don't win what he has done without that.

"He is 32, has a lot of experience with Audi and did a very good job today, he certainly didn't embarrass himself.

"These cars are a bit like a games console in a way and that's one of the reasons why the younger drivers come in and do a good job. They don't have to come back and tell the story anymore, a lot of it is set by the team and it's more about setting the dials on the car.

"You still need talent, but the days where you really need a lot of experience has gone. What you need more than anything is speed and Andre has certainly been good for Caterham bringing that depth of knowledge and understanding of data."