Gary Anderson's 2014 testing review

The chequered flag has finally dropped on what has been the strangest pre-season testing that I think I've ever seen.

When the team that has won, and more or less dominated, both the drivers' and constructors' championships for the past four years can screw up as it has, it just goes to show how luck still plays a big part in Formula 1.

In addition, its engine supplier during those years of plenty has had a horrible winter test programme. Nothing has gone right for Renault, which is definitely well behind rivals Mercedes and Ferrari.

For Renault and all of its teams, this will really hurt. When you have to focus all of your engineering expertise on just simply getting up and running, it means there is very little resource left for any sort of development.

This situation has compromised all of the Renault-engined teams. They will recover from it, but the big question is how long will that take?

WHO IS ON THE PACE?

It's never easy to really understand where any driver or team sits at the end of testing as there are so many variables that can influence the lap time.

Ten kilograms difference in fuel load costs approximately 0.33 seconds per lap, but for this comparison we will just assume that the fuel loads were not too far apart.

Will Alonso be the man to beat in Australia? © XPB

So what will we see in Melbourne? I don't have a crystal ball (I wish I did) but using both historical data and laptimes from the final test, I've had a closer look.

To achieve this, I have equalised the different tyre compounds at 0.4s per compound. My base line is the soft tyre, so if a medium tyre was used to set the best time I would take 0.4 seconds off. If a super-soft was used, I would add on 0.4 seconds.

If used tyres were on the car for the fastest lap time I have taken away 0.2 seconds. I haven't just picked these offsets out of mid-air; they come from more or less the average from the 2013 season.

Also, everyone seems to be saying that the circuit is slower at this test than it was at the previous test. Some team personnel at the test have said the difference was up to two seconds at times, but I think that's far too much.

Looking closely, the track seemed to get faster towards the end of the four days of running. To get a mathematically accurate figure, I have used Nico Rosberg's fastest time from the previous week's Bahrain test compared with the recent one and modified it to equalise for tyres. That puts him 0.621s slower on the third day of the final test.

To be as fair as possible across the board, the laptimes of anyone who set a time on the Thursday or Friday, when the track was slowest, has had their time made quicker by one second. For Saturday, 0.5s has been taken off, while for Sunday there is no offset.

FASTEST ADJUSTED TIMES IN BAHRAIN

Driver         Adjusted time
Massa          1m33.158s
Rosberg        1m33.283s
Hamilton       1m33.678s
Bottas         1m33.987s
Perez          1m34.290s
Alonso         1m34.680s
Riccardo       1m34.743s
Button         1m34.957s
Magnussen      1m35.310s
Raikkonen      1m35.326s
Hulkenberg     1m35.977s
Kvyat          1m36.013s
Vergne         1m36.101s
Chilton        1m36.835s
Sutil          1m36.867s
Bianchi        1m36.987s
Gutierrez      1m37.180s
Vettel         1m37.268s
Ericsson       1m37.983s
Kobayashi      1m38.391s
Maldonado      1m38.707s
Grosjean       1m39.302s

Red Bull has regressed © XPB

From these figures, I have then taken the fastest lap per team and converted it into percentages.

This allows me to compare each team, and also to reference back to each team's relative pace across the entire 2013 season.

This 2013 data was calculated by taking the fastest lap from each team set during each of the 19 race weekends and then converting into an average percentage for the season.

We can therefore gauge who has moved forward or backwards.

FASTEST 2013 SEASON TIMES, PER TEAM, AS PERCENTAGE
Red Bull-Renault 100%
Mercedes         +0.070%
Lotus            +0.472%
Ferrari          +0.552%
McLaren          +1.102%
Force India      +1.190%
Sauber           +1.291%
Toro Rosso       +1.294%
Williams         +1.914%
Caterham         +3.762%
Marussia         +3.987%

FASTEST 2014 TESTING TIMES, PER TEAM, AS PERCENTAGE
Williams         100%
Mercedes         +0.134%
Force India      +1.215%
Ferrari          +1.634%
Red Bull         +1.701%
McLaren          +1.931%
Toro Rosso       +3.065%
Marussia         +3.947%
Sauber           +3.981%
Caterham         +5.179%
Lotus            +5.957%

None of this pace really means anything if you can't get the car to the chequered flag, which is something that no team can be sure of.

Right up to the last moments of testing, cars were still breaking down with a variety of problems.

This is never a good sign: one problem you can go off and fix, but a variety of problems is a lot more difficult. For the engine companies, we also saw a few failures late in the day.

These were likely high-mileage units, but a failure is a failure and will need to be addressed.

Williams has reason to be optimistic, according to Anderson's analysis © XPB

WILLIAMS-MERCEDES

Williams looks like it's back to where it should be, fighting at the front. The team must be thanking its lucky stars for the inspired decision to switch from Renault to Mercedes powertrains for this year.

It will be competitive at the front of the field this year, and Williams is not guaranteed to stay where testing has put it.

But the car looks good on the track and both drivers are very capable of wringing its neck when they get the chance.

This is a new lease of life for Felipe Massa, who will also be kept honest by Valtteri Bottas, very much a future star.

MERCEDES

Since the wheels first started to turn at the end of January at Jerez, the Mercedes chassis and powertrain have both been the class of the field.

As a works team, the two departments have worked very closely together to come up with the best solution to the many compromises that make up a successful F1 outfit.

At the end of testing, I believe Mercedes is showing it has done that better than anyone else.

Mercedes has had its problems and is by no means out of the woods, but it has accumulated as much, if not more, data than anyone else and has tried various cooling packages that are available if required over the first few races.

It also has probably as strong, if not stronger, a driver line-up than any team - although that might just take a bit of managing as the season progresses.

Force India could be strong over a race distance © XPB

FORCE INDIA-MERCEDES

If Force India can be the third strongest team in Melbourne, it will be ecstatic. Work started on this car very early and it shows.

The VJM07 is one of the only cars to be able to improve its lap time on its second timed lap, so it looks after the tyres very well.

That bodes well for race performance.

Force India has also signalled its intent to move forward by signing Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez. Both are very talented drivers and I believe Hulkenberg is a bit of a star. How or why the top teams have passed him over, I will never know.

FERRARI

I still don't think the Ferrari has as much grip as some of the other cars. When on new tyres and going for a lap time, it doesn't perform as well as when it's on used tyres. This was particularly apparent when Fernando Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen were on competitive long runs.

The grip level and balance combination needed to get a lap out of the car when it's on new tyres is more difficult than when on used tyres. This is perhaps where Ferrari is still struggling.

Various aerodynamic modifications were introduced at the final test, so at least there is a development plan in place.

Ferrari has a very strong driver line up, but Alonso and Raikkonen are very different people. Perhaps, like Mercedes, this pairing will need a bit of managing as the season progresses.

RED BULL-RENAULT

You could sum it up by saying that Red Bull has effectively not started testing yet!

It got through a bit of homework on the last day, but in reality very few laps have been completed and every day has been disrupted by something.

The car itself looks good, as we would expect from the Milton Keynes-based team, but the engine installation seems to have been a tad too aggressive and since its first runs Red Bull has been backtracking on that area.

The team has a lot of brain power available to it and now is the time to use it. It must allow time to get over these problems, at least for the first few races, to allow it to make some progress.

Button also fears McLaren has slipped back © XPB

McLAREN-MERCEDES

When testing started I really thought McLaren was right back up there.

The car looked good on the track and both drivers seemed very happy with it. Since those first few days running, however, it seems to have stood still.

This a little worrying for McLaren, because the works Mercedes teams and the other customer Mercedes-engined cars are moving forward.

McLaren needs to make the best of the start to this season because with the move to a Honda powertrain for 2015, the Mercedes deal comes to an end this year and the relationship is likely to get a little strained as the season progresses.

TORO ROSSO-RENAULT

I am sure team principal Franz Tost is rueing the day he changed from Ferrari to Renault powertrains.

But it's too late to do anything about that now so it's just a case of the team keeping its head down and getting on with it.

When the car runs, it looks good. It's a nice package and I'm sure it will be right up there alongside the other Renault teams.

MARUSSIA-FERRARI

This season is probably the start of Marussia's real F1 campaign.

It has a Ferrari powertrain package and the Ferrari gearbox and hydraulic system. This is a major part of an F1 car so for a small team it will allow it to concentrate on all the other stuff.

Maintaining one of these things is going to be no easy task for a small team. But the guys at Marussia are real racers and racers can usually find a way to achieve something that others find impossible.

The car looks well-balanced on the track but could do with a bit more overall grip. It's as good a starting point as we have seen from the team since it came into F1.

Sauber has been plagued by a plethora of issues © XPB

SAUBER-FERRARI

I think the best way of putting it is that the car was born a bit premature.

At the first test, the car was lacking a few of the aerodynamic parts but the team made the decision to get up and running as early as possible. It has certainly needed the mileage.

Sauber has had many issues, even down to a chassis problem that required a new one to be introduced. This must have been a front-suspension or engine-mount pickup problem. Better it happen now than in Australia, at least.

Because of the problems, Sauber has been playing catch up and has some work to do.

CATERHAM-RENAULT

At the moment, Caterham is the Renault-engined car that seems to be getting the most running - and that's a reason for it to be happy.

But the car does not look very well-balanced on the track and it seems to lack general grip.

It does a bit of everything, which is not very good for inspiring driver confidence.

LOTUS-RENAULT

Missing the first test at Jerez, coupled with Renault's engine problems, means Lotus's winter has been probably as bad as Red Bull's.

For one reason or another, Lotus has not really had the opportunity to show its true potential. Before commenting in too much depth, we need to wait until it gets a decent run at it.

There are a lot of very experienced people at Enstone, so while re-grouping for a season that has the biggest regulation changes we have seen for probably two decades is never going to be easy, Lotus will make progress.

But don't think the performance we saw over the past two seasons is going to come easily.

ENGINES

MERCEDES

Mercedes has, without doubt, the strongest powertrain package and it also looks like it is able to supply all of its teams with very similar specification and support.

For Williams, Force India and McLaren, this is vital.

But it's also crucial for the works team. The Renault-engined cars are struggling, including Red Bull, so anything that can be done to put more Mercedes-engined cars between Hamilton and Rosberg and a Red Bull means a bigger points gap.

With the controversial double-points finale, building this gap could be decisive.

FERRARI

Ferrari doesn't look to be too far behind in the engine stakes. I say behind because I do believe it has a small deficit to Mercedes in this area.

Some of this comes from depth in numbers, as Sauber and Marussia, its other teams, are in no way as strong as some of the Mercedes customers. This means that the Ferrari works team will have to do a lot of the donkey work itself.

RENAULT

Renault was the engine supplier that pushed hardest to introduce these new powertrain regulations but its winter test programme has been a nightmare.

At the first test at Jerez, because of various problems, none of its teams were able to do any meaningful running. It was not much better at the first Bahrain test and it has been playing catch-up ever since.

Renault still has an enormous amount of work to do before Melbourne.

TYRES

After the slagging off Pirelli sustained during 2013, it's taken the conservative route, and rightly so given the number of unknowns coming into 2014.

That said, tyres will still play a very important role this year. With all the extra torque available, an over-ambitious driver will still be able to overheat the rear tyres and accelerate degradation.

The most sensitive drivers will be able to manage this and still drive quickly, but anyone heavy on the right foot will pay the price.

So who will get it right for the first race? It's not long now until we find out.

But I can assure you there will be a lot of sleepless nights before the lights go out in Melbourne.