Mercedes ready to make a break

After the relatively leisurely ambiance of the August break, during which the regulations force the shutdown of every Formula 1 team for two weeks, the Belgian Grand Prix marks the start of a frenetic run-in.

It's the first of a series of nine races spread over a mere 14 weekends, during which F1 will race on four continents to decide the destiny of the 2013 world championship. Spa is a majestic place to start and what happens there will give the world an idea of what to expect for the rest of the season, even though it's far from the most representative track on the calendar.

Sebastian Vettel leads the drivers' championship by 38 points from Lotus driver Kimi Raikkonen, with Fernando Alonso a point further adrift. But all the indications are that the current man to watch is Lewis Hamilton.

The 2008 world champion is 48 points down - effectively meaning he needs to pull back two victories' worth of points to overhaul Vettel. But he has one crucial weapon in his armoury: the fastest car over a lap.

Three times in the past five races, Mercedes has managed to convert pole position into a race victory. In the heat of Hungary, conditions that would usually expose Merc's rear-tyre management Achilles' Heel, Hamilton won with relative ease. The question is whether this can now be expected to be the norm.

Will Hamilton's Hungary triumph prove the norm or the exception? © XPB

Spa is not the most extreme circuit either in terms of track temperature or tyre use. That said, the long, fast turns of the second sector are the kinds of corners that load up the rear tyres for a long time and could offer a glimpse of whether Mercedes has really cured its problems thanks to a combination of its own development work and the new Pirelli control tyres introduced in Hungary.

If - and it's still a big if - Mercedes is able to win consistently, then Hamilton has to be considered as Vettel's most credible threat. Nico Rosberg might have been, but two early-season retirements have left him a massive 88 points behind Vettel.

Unless he can pull back serious points in the next couple of races, it could be time for Mercedes to start contemplating team orders to maximise its drivers' title chances?

Things are a little less clear cut in the constructors' championship. Mercedes is only 69 points behind Red Bull. With 43 points up for grabs each weekend, it seems likely that the inter-team battle will be as intense as ever over the next few months.

IS LOTUS QUICK ENOUGH?

The Lotus-Renault E21 is a fine grand prix car, but if Kimi Raikkonen is to launch a credible attack for the drivers' championship he needs it to be faster.

While the Finn's qualifying performances have not always been, by his own admission, at 100 per cent, the main problem is that the raw pace of the car in qualifying isn't quite good enough.

At Spa, with the aid of the much-vaunted passive drag-reduction system, the four-time Belgian GP winner has to be regarded as a strong podium contender. But with Vettel still comfortably ahead and Mercedes coming up on the rails, a victory would be the only marker that really matters.

Raikkonen has done a fine job to stay in the title hunt, but he needs a quicker car under him to be there rather than thereabouts.

Alonso cut a frustrated figure in Hungary... © XPB

ALONSO AND FERRARI ON EDGE

All was not well in the Ferrari camp after the Hungarian GP.

The Scuderia took umbrage at Alonso's comments about wanting his rivals' car for his birthday - and likely also at the fact his management had spoken to Red Bull about a possible switch.

It's easy to understand Alonso's concerns. For too long, Ferrari's strike rate with upgrades has been disappointing. The car is better than it was last year, certainly, but the fact that Red Bull has been more consistent has left Alonso trailing.

While Ferrari can be relied upon to have a strong car for ultra-low downforce Monza, Spa has not always been a happy hunting ground. Alonso himself has never won the Belgian GP or qualified on the front row.

You can look at that two ways; either he is due a result there or he's not as strong at Spa as at other tracks. The latter can probably be ruled out.

But will the Ferrari be strong enough? All the indications are that it will be thereabouts, but not necessarily there. And if that's the case, what does that mean for the tricky relationship between team and driver if they continue to fade from the title reckoning?

McLAREN'S RENAISSANCE

After the Hungarian GP, the mood was good at McLaren. Jenson Button was effusive after the race about the step forward made by the team and there are clear reasons to be encouraged.

...while Button, in contrast, was buoyed by McLaren's improving form © XPB

Button promised a strong showing at Spa after the Hungaroring.

That won't extend to fighting for victory - certainly not without the assistance of the weather - but with a fair wind he and Sergio Perez could be in contention for their strongest results of the campaign.

But the first priority is to reclaim fifth in the world championship from Force India. With the Silverstone-based squad struggling in Hungary, it's possible that this could be the weekend that McLaren reclaims its spot in the top five.

FICKLE ARDENNES WEATHER

It will rain at Spa. Whether this rain will be heavy, light, intermittent, steady and if it will fall evenly over the whole track is harder to judge. But the weather is always a factor at Spa.

Not only does this throw a potential curveball into qualifying and the race, but it also puts a premium on making the most of dry running in practice.

A good run during Friday, if it is dry, is paramount for anyone hoping for a good weekend. If you end up starting Saturday playing catch-up, it will make life very difficult.

STRAIGHTLINE SPEED VERSUS DOWNFORCE

The duality of Spa means that teams have to make a very clear choice between downforce and straightline speed.

Opt for less downforce and therefore less drag and you will be quick in sectors one and three and give away time in the fast, sweeping middle sector.

Spa throws up a classic balancing act of downforce and speed © XPB

Go for more downforce and you will struggle on the straights but be able to pick up swathes of time in the twisty bits.

Spa is a long enough circuit for either approach to pay dividends and you can guarantee that there will be a mixture of strategies.

Add into the mix the passive drag-reduction system Lotus plans to race for only the second time and there are many factors to be taken into account both in terms of pure laptime and overtaking potential.

This means that whatever happens on Saturday, Sunday's race is going to be a dramatic one with plenty of passing.