Why 2020 will be a defining year for Vettel

When four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel's move to Ferrari was announced back in November 2014, both were in need of a boost. Vettel had suffered a disappointing season alongside Daniel Ricciardo at Red Bull, and the Ferrari-Fernando Alonso relationship had come to an end with no world titles.

For Vettel, the move to Maranello was the fulfilment of a long-held dream to follow in the footsteps of his hero, Michael Schumacher. Like Schumacher, Vettel wanted to build a team around him and restore Ferrari to its former greatness.

But less than six years later, Vettel is gearing up for one final, shortened season with Ferrari before leaving the team, after his exit was confirmed at the beginning of May.

As the world was put on hold amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Vettel was given time to think carefully about his future. With his contract running out at the end of this year and Ferrari clearly rallying around his younger team-mate, Charles Leclerc, Vettel saw that the writing was on the wall. Word soon emerged that both he and Ferrari had decided to call off contract talks by mutual agreement, with formal confirmation coming less than 12 hours later. Vettel's great Ferrari dream was over.

There were a few hints at the reasons behind the decision in Vettel's comments announcing his exit. "In order to get the best possible results in this sport, it's vital for all parties to work in perfect harmony," he said. "The team and I have realised that there is no longer a common desire to stay together beyond the end of this season."

The Ferrari battleplan that was sold to Vettel when he joined for 2015 slowly faded as the years went by. The squad made good on its promise to deliver a car capable of winning the title, in 2017 and 2018, only for mistakes by both Vettel and the team to result in any chance of glory slipping through their fingers.

But the set-up at Ferrari shifted too. Team principal Maurizio Arrivabene and chairman Sergio Marchionne were both instrumental in bringing Vettel to Maranello. Marchionne's death in the summer of 2018 and Arrivabene's exit before the start of last season brought change to the team, with new F1 boss Mattia Binotto favouring a more open, transparent approach.

And that approach meant there was no dragging out of talks with Vettel. Once they realised they had reached stalemate, the white flag was raised. Ferrari had been sounding out other drivers as far back as December, allowing it to announce McLaren's Carlos Sainz Jr for 2021 just 48 hours after Vettel's exit had been confirmed.

Both Vettel and Binotto stressed publicly on multiple occasions through the winter that they expected a new contract to be finalised. But privately at Ferrari there was a level of scepticism about how successful talks would be. That ran deeper than a simple sounding-out of Sainz and Ricciardo - who ultimately missed out on the seat for a second time - with indications being made many months ago that Vettel might not re-sign.

"He's literally just run out of puff. He's clearly not getting out of bed now motivated to drive a red car, and that's an issue" Mark Webber on Sebastian Vettel

The COVID-19 pandemic has put a fresh perspective on what's important in life for everyone. In the case of Vettel, it was particularly timely. After 13 seasons in the championship, the chance to have some time at home with his young family - including a six-month-old baby boy - will have been precious to him. But as it coincided with planning for his future, it accelerated his decision to not settle for a deal with Ferrari that would have left him unhappy.

Vettel didn't want to play second fiddle to Leclerc, the new darling of Maranello with a five-year contract under his belt after his breakout 2019. He wanted to know he could fight for wins and titles on a level playing field. Anything less would sap his enjoyment, something he was not willing to settle for.

"What's been happening in these past few months has led many of us to reflect on what are our real priorities in life," Vettel said in the announcement. "One needs to use one's imagination and to adopt a new approach to a situation that has changed.

"Financial matters have played no part in this joint decision. That's not the way I think when it comes to making certain choices and it never will be."

Vettel spoke about the need for happiness in an interview with Autosport at the Australian Grand Prix, prior to the race's cancellation. "There are a lot of sportsmen, businessmen that thrive for money," he said. "I think the question really is whether people have a sense of 'enough'.

"That's not just valid for Formula 1. We are putting our life in a way also on the line, then you need to show some appreciation for that. Our careers also are shorter than some other careers. I think the really important thing is that you are happy, that's the key."

Vettel's happiness at Ferrari had worn away in recent years, with 2019 and the emergence of Leclerc being the breaking point. Vettel saw his younger colleague getting the kind of attention and adulation he craved but was no longer receiving. He was not enjoying the status he felt he deserved as a four-time world champion.

It was something Vettel's former Red Bull team-mate, Mark Webber, had noted. "Knowing how [Vettel] works, which is 110%; he puts a lot of time and effort into it and he expects the same clearly," Webber said on the F1 Nation podcast.

"Michael [Schumacher] got in there, you had Rory Byrne, Ross Brawn, Jean Todt, a very good mixture of culture when Michael was dominating. I'm not nailing the Italians, but I'm just saying when they are all one army, they still haven't delivered.

"Seb under that regime... they did what they could, and he's just run out of puff there. He's literally just run out of puff. He's clearly not getting out of bed now motivated to drive a red car, and that's an issue."

Ferrari had, quite simply, moved on. It saw Leclerc as the man leading the team for years to come, evidenced by his long-term contract announced back in December. The friction between the two drivers was something Ferrari could not let persist, risking a similar kind of rot seen at Mercedes between Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg. There was no longer a need for Vettel in the same way as there had been before.

PLUS: How Leclerc beat Vettel to be Ferrari's favourite

"We closed a cycle with Sebastian," Binotto said. "Sebastian has been working in our team for six years. I admire Sebastian, I admire him as a person and as a professional driver. I hold him in great esteem. We are laying the foundations for our future, and we want to have a specific perspective. We talked with Sebastian, and we found out we didn't share the same short or long-term goals."

Long-term, supporting Leclerc's bids to become world champion was never a goal Vettel was going to share.

The break-up has all seemed fairly civil thus far. Vettel made his first appearance back in Ferrari colours during the filming day at Mugello at the end of June to prepare for this weekend's race in Austria, meeting up with his colleagues - including Leclerc - for the first time since the announcement. Leclerc, meanwhile, had already been at the factory the previous week, completing a brief run in the 2020 SF1000 car around the streets of Maranello.

It also yields the question of what Vettel does next. His form through 2019, while patchy in places, proved he is still capable of winning GPs and fighting with the very best drivers

But both parties still have what looks set to be a painful 2020 season to get through. Ferrari struggled during winter testing, looking like the third-fastest team firmly behind Mercedes and Red Bull. The limits on development through the upcoming season to try to cut costs following the COVID-19 pandemic only add to the bleak picture for the team heading into the new campaign.

Implicit admission that Ferrari is trailing came in Binotto's reluctant acceptance of the delay in the new regulations until 2022, warranting a carryover of the current cars into next season to ease development costs. Ferrari eventually agreed with the other nine teams, with Binotto saying it was "not the time for selfishness", but he conceded the decision was not to the advantage of Ferrari. It could make 2021 just as difficult as 2020.

Vettel has a season to endure with a team that no longer wants him and that he no longer wants to race for, in a car that may not give him the chance to add to his tally of 14 grand prix victories for Ferrari. It all points towards this year being a long, tough slog - even with a truncated season.

It also yields the question of what Vettel does next. At 33 (which he turns tomorrow, Friday), he is hardly at the age to be considering a permanent retirement from F1, and his form through 2019, while patchy in places, proved he is still capable of winning GPs and fighting with the very best drivers.

PLUS: Why F1 would be poorer without Vettel

There has been little indication from Vettel as to what his next move will be, only saying in the announcement that he would "take the time I need to reflect on what really matters when it comes to my future". Tying in with his family focus and change in perspectives following the pandemic, it would perhaps not be so surprising to see him call it quits completely.

The lack of options elsewhere on the grid for 2021 also complicates matters. The idea of forming a 10-time (or will it be 11-time by then?) world champion superteam with Hamilton at Mercedes has been mooted, with team principal Toto Wolff saying Vettel's availability was not something that could be ignored.

But given the success of the team with Hamilton of late and its own ongoing talks to tie the six-time champion down, rocking the boat would seem too risky. Hamilton's incumbent team-mate, Valtteri Bottas, also claims he has been told that Vettel is not an option for 2021.

Renault may have a free seat on offer, but the appeal to Vettel of racing back in F1's midfield would be hard to understand. He was not even a consideration for McLaren to move in the opposite direction to Sainz.

Webber said he thought Vettel would take a year off before coming back rejuvenated, but warned it would become more difficult the longer he left it.

"Ultimately for me, it just got a bit harder," Webber said. "In your late thirties, that tenth just takes a bit longer to get a bit more confident in certain positions and certain scenarios.

"I wanted to be mindful of if you are starting to look at your clock, the motivation is starting to go off in briefings or whatever, you can't then demand that from the people around you to go the extra mile for you. You can when you're hungry, motivated, disciplined, you're one team and you've got a goal. If you are 9.5 out of 10, you can't have the same mission with your employees."

Regardless of his next move and how uncompetitive Ferrari may be this year, it gives Vettel one final chance to make a stand and prove he is still one of the best in the world

But another comment from Webber resonated upon Vettel's announcement, this one made back in 2014.

"I think Seb will do everything early in life," Webber said. "He's got his titles and his results early, he's going to have a kid early and I think he'll retire early.

"He'll probably take a blast in the red car, then sayonara."

The end of the marriage between Vettel and Ferrari is the latest in a long line of unfulfilled potential for partnerships between great drivers and F1's most famous team. His departure lacks the immediacy or toxicity of that of Alonso or Alain Prost, yet that could only make things more painful for Vettel. He's got another season to get through, when he could be forgiven for having already mentally checked out.

Regardless of his next move and how uncompetitive Ferrari may be this year, it gives Vettel one final chance to make a stand and prove he is still one of the best in the world. The final act of his Maranello tragedy could come to play a big part in defining how kindly history looks upon his Ferrari career.