Why F1 would be poorer without Vettel

Two weeks on from the news breaking that Sebastian Vettel will leave Ferrari at the end of 2020 and there has been no further indication of what he will do next. And nor should there be.

Vettel's next call will be only the second major Formula 1 career move he has made since he left his long-term roots at Red Bull to chase the Ferrari dream that now looks set to elude him.

Realistically, Class A is now closed to the four-time world champion. Ferrari has its line-up settled in Vettel's soon-to-be absence with Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jr, while Red Bull has already indicated there will be no prodigal son homecoming.

There might be some slim chance of a Mercedes move - but this seems remote at best.

Toto Wolff may have said that Vettel would be an "asset to any Formula 1 team" that his squad would sensibly consider, but with the only possible alternative destination for Lewis Hamilton's services - Ferrari - a closed shop, it seems unlikely right now that the reigning world champion will be on the move. And if Hamilton isn't going anywhere, then Wolff would be unwise to replace Valtteri Bottas with a driver whose very arrival would risk de-stabilising the team harmony Wolff has indeed been so wise to prioritise since Nico Rosberg's retirement.

Based on Autosport's assessment of F1's competitive pecking order ahead of the delayed 2020 season, which to a certain extent will apply to next year as will given the current cars will be largely carried over as a result of the coronavirus cost-saving measures, Vettel seemingly has two choices. These are: Renault and Racing Point (which would be Aston Martin by the time of his possible arrival). But both scenarios are problematic.

Taking Renault first, despite team principal Cyril Abiteboul's suggesting that 'new deal' measures F1 is implementing to help the teams and improve competition will increase the chances of the manufacturer staying in the championship - as part of Autosport's #thinkingforward series - this is far from guaranteed.

The full reality of the pandemic's economic consequences is yet to be known. Already, painful steps are being taken, such as McLaren moving to cut approximately 1200 jobs. Renault's F1 participation was already part of a company-wide review that began way before the coronavirus crisis struck. Renault's inconsistent commitment to F1 over the years (including its works team exit in the wake of the last global recession) allied to its lack of results since returning as a factory team in 2016 mean its withdrawal must at least be considered as a possibility.

It's harsh, and would not be fitting for the hard work and commitment demonstrated at the team, but such is the way corporate entities operate. Renault is also part state-owned, so it would be difficult to see how an F1 programme could be guaranteed in the face of job losses and an inevitably-squeezed French economy.

All that aside, it could be that Renault itself doesn't want Vettel to replace Daniel Ricciardo at the end of 2020 - and things are rarely as simple as a driver getting to pick their preffered destination alone. After all, the manufacturer's most-recent world champion is eying a move back into F1. But even Fernando Alonso would be facing, for a season at least (and assuming Renault doesn't exit), another midfield scrap.

Vettel is a strong character - a driver who knows what he wants and also what is best for him and his family

Racing Point/Aston Martin appears to offer a seat closer to the front of the grid, but the problem for Vettel here is that Sergio Perez has a contract with the squad that runs until the end of 2022, and Lance Stroll's father controls the team.

Now, of course, contracts can always be changed if one party wants it badly enough - but it would be disingenuous to both Perez and Stroll to assume one would be ousted to accommodate Vettel.

We must also consider a topic that looms over all talk of Vettel moving to these teams: his own desire to return to F1's midfield. Vettel hasn't raced for a non-front-running-regular since he left Toro Rosso at the end of 2008 (and it shouldn't ever be forgotten that he gave the former Minardi squad its first F1 win, brilliant as it was).

He's seen his former team-mate, Kimi Raikkonen, prolong his F1 career at Alfa Romeo - simply because the Finn is eager to carry on in grand prix racing. But it cannot be assumed Vettel would simply make a similar move for the same reason.

After all, in an interview given to Autosport at the aborted Australian GP - and we now know that was after Ferrari had initiated talks with Sainz about a possible move - he said: "I don't know, I really don't know," when asked if he would consider the same decision as Raikkonen's.

Here's why: "I was in the midfield when I started with Toro Rosso, and at the beginning of Red Bull - which very quickly became a proper winning team. But when I started with Toro Rosso, the first year we were looking for P17-P15. We weren't fighting for much.

"The year after [2008] was amazing, because we were able to fight for more. We were like P12, top 10, top 10 regularly at the end of the year. So, it depends - when you start from there, obviously top 10 means a lot to you, top five is incredible.

"When you spend 10 years in the top five, going back to P15 doesn't feel the same. Whereas if you're P15 for the first time because you have been P18 before that, it's the greatest thing ever. I don't think you can unsee what you have gone through."

Vettel is a strong character - a driver who knows what he wants and also what is best for him and his family. It's very possible this could be served with a move to a midfield F1 squad, or even a move into another championship (in the same interview, Vettel said he has considered such a possibility in the context of his post-F1 career). But it's surely just as likely that he may choose to walk away completely.

Professional athletes naturally operate on plains of which most of us can only dream. And it's the same when it comes to the decisions they must make.

Consider a moment NBA megastar Michael Jordan. There's a suggestion in one of the episodes of The Last Dance - the Netflix documentary telling the tale of Jordan's all-conquering Chicago Bulls squad - that Jordan did not publically support Harvey Gantt, the black Democratic candidate who was running against Republican Jesse Helms (a politician with a simply appalling views and policies) in the 1990 Senate race in his home state of North Carolina, because it might harm sales of his Nike shoes.

"Republicans buy sneakers, too," Jordan was quoted as saying at the time. In the documentary he addresses that quote - saying that it was a joke - but also that he didn't consider himself an activist. Personally, it's hard to accept that reasoning, but I can absolutely understand it.

To lose a driver of Vettel's undoubted quality and entertaining character would be such a shame for F1

There is a point to this - even though a discussion about Vettel's future driving career is in no way directly comparable to the important issue of supporting fundamental civil rights. It's just that many sports stars at the highest levels simply don't make decisions based on what makes sense to those of us on the outside.

While many of us would no doubt like the idea of driving an F1 car forever and ever if the offer was there, it's a different story for those who have worked their way to the top and dedicated their lives to a constantly moving, high-profile crusade for success. To be the best at anything is exhausting - because it's supposed to be.

So, if Vettel does decide to call it a day at the end of 2020, it would be completely understandable. He a truly great driver, who (as all the greats have done) took a team and dominated the opposition.

But F1 would miss Vettel and his character.

In addition to his clearly charming persona outside of the cockpit - his personality in the car is quite something to witness. His reactions in Baku in 2017 and in Mexico City 2016 were clear errors of judgement, but they were relatable to anyone who has had the red mist descend. The best stories are human stories.

Then there were his post-race antics in Canada last year after losing the win to Hamilton thanks to a time penalty. Pure theatre.

To lose a driver of his undoubted quality and entertaining character would be such a shame for F1 - especially if a lack of competition between the teams means he chooses to call time rather than accept a place elsewhere on the grid.

As much as some people seem to find it hard to accept - F1 is worse off without Alonso's presence and it would be the same if Vettel departed from the grid.

Which is why it's important the championship doesn't miss its chance to rectify what has gone wrong and find a way to make sure that any team can win, but that the best can ultimately triumph.

If that can happen, then there's every chance a healthier grid overall would pit a mix of older, established stars against up-and-comers to try in an enthralling fight to win the biggest prize.