Monte Carlo Rally analysis

Be warned: the form guide that presented itself during last weekend's Rallye Monte Carlo should be taken with a pinch of salt big enough to grit the roads on which the event took place.

Monte is a notoriously fickle event. The stage conditions rarely stay the same for more than a few minutes, drivers have to second-guess tyre choice hours in advance (and deal with the consequences if they get it wrong) and it's often more a test of saving crucial ice studs than outright speed. As a season-opener, it can be frustratingly inconclusive.

But if we are to pick shreds of evidence from the chaos that often featured on this year's Monte, then they are likely to make depressing reading for Tommi Makinen's rivals. For it appears that the four-times world champion bounced back in more ways than the mere results sheet.

Three wins in succession was a remarkable achievement, of course: a feat which lifted the Finn to the level of Monte legend, alongside Sandro Munari and Walter Rohrl. But the significance for the season ahead might yet prove greater still.

For starters, Makinen's win proved that he's lost none of his uncanny ability to be in the right place at the right time. Opponents used to call it luck: perhaps it is. But the fact remains that when Colin McRae's Ford Focus hit problems on that final morning, Tommi was better placed than either of the Scot's team-mates to take full advantage. If he can retain that sort of form in the relatively proven Lancer, then he stands a good chance of racking up a decent points haul as his rivals push the technical boundaries to - and beyond - the limits.

Ah yes... The Lancer. The "E6.5", as it's now become known, features a number of World Rally Car-style tweaks over the externally-similar model that struggled last season. Principally, its rear suspension has had a complete overhaul and there are adjustments to the flywheel as well, to aid throttle response. Between them, they appear to have given the car the sort of kick up the backside it needed to at least hold its own, although whether it can maintain this momentum all the way to the new Lancer's debut in Sanremo (October) is another matter.

But for now, the new car has had a more dramatic effect. It's restored Makinen's determination. By the middle of last season he seemed a withdrawn figure, resigned to losing his championship and, frankly, not that bothered about individual events. Watching Marcus Gronholm cruise to a win in Finland, then on to the overall title must have pained Mitsubishi's charger.

You suspect that he needed to return in Monte Carlo with a bang, the sort of result - and performance - that gave him back the taste of success so cruelly denied him by turbocharger irregularities in Australia last year. Before last weekend, Makinen hadn't won a rally for 12 months. But now that he has, he's already displaying the sublime confidence that was missing for most of last year.

Sweden is next, and Tommi only just missed out on victory there last year. If, as Mitsubishi suggests, the Lancer's improvements are really going to come into their own on the rougher, gravel roads of Portugal, then rivals at Ford, Peugeot and Subaru had better find both speed and - crucially - reliability, and fast.