Who is winning the LMP1 manufacturer war?
Last year, the Nurburgring WEC round set the tone for Porsche domination over the remainder of the campaign. The picture for the balance of the 2016 season is far murkier
The World Endurance Championship resumed after the Le Mans 24 Hours at the Nurburgring last weekend and Porsche won. It might look like a case of deja vu, but the result is where the similarities with last season end.
Porsche dominated at the 'Ring last August, setting the tone for the rest of the season - the 919 Hybrid would remain unbeaten over the remaining WEC rounds. On the evidence of a thrilling event in which Audi had the pace to challenge its rival at different times of the race, that's unlikely to happen this time around.
The arrival of a high-downforce package of aerodynamics at this stage of the season in 2015 allowed Porsche to fully exploit the key technical advantage it enjoyed over its rivals. The 919 was racing in the top eight-megajoule hybrid sub-class, whereas Audi and Toyota were respectively running in the 4MJ and 6MJ divisions.
One year on, and Toyota is now at 8MJs and Audi is in the 6MJ class, which it claims is the optimum for a turbodiesel LMP1 hybrid. At the same time, both manufacturers have adopted the same battery energy-storage technology that was also a component of Porsche's advantage last season.
The technological reasons for Porsche's unbroken sequence of victories at the 'Tilkedrome' Formula 1 tracks that make up the second half of the WEC calendar aren't there anymore. It's that simple.
Porsche had compromised itself at Silverstone where it was beaten by Audi, and to a lesser extent at Spa, in 2015 courtesy of its focus on Le Mans. There was no high-downforce aero until the Nurburgring, at which point the compromise was removed and it was able to fully exploit the advantage afforded to its 8MJ hybrid system by the regulations.
WHAT PORSCHE SAYS

Porsche knows it is not going to have things easy as it attempts to defend its WEC titles and the points advantage it holds at the top of the drivers' and manufacturers' classifications.
It knows it has a fight on its hands as the series heads to Mexico City at the start of September.
"Audi can attack us like we could attack them last year," said Porsche driver Neel Jani last Sunday night, "and boy are they fast on the straights. That's going to make it interesting when we get to places like Mexico City.
"No one is going to be giving anyone else any presents over the rest of the season."
IS AUDI REALLY IN THE FIGHT?

That looks to be the case, even if the new high-downforce version of this year's R18 e-tron quattro wasn't consistently a match for the Porsche across the six hours of racing at the Nurburgring.
Both Audis led over the first couple of stints, but then lost pace as the race approached the halfway mark.
The drivers of both cars complained of a lack of front-end downforce in the middle hours of the race. This was addressed on the #7 Audi that eventually finished third with a change of nose at its penultimate pitstop.
Andre Lotterer was able to catch and pass Jani in the #2 Porsche, before dutifully holding position behind Loic Duval in the sister Audi in the name of the marque's challenge for the drivers' crown.
Audi wasn't convinced that the minor dings both its cars sustained early in the race were the reason - or the full reason - for the drop-off in performance.
"We're not sure if it was because we lost a flick [diveplane] or maybe [rubber] pick-up was getting into some of the aero components," said Lotterer. "We're going to have to do some more analysis."
Temperature and track conditions could also have played a part, just as they did at Le Mans last month. The R18s were also quick but inconsistent during the blue-riband round of the WEC.
Audi is confident that it is going to be in the mix and challenging for race victories over the rest of the season.
"We've made a really good step from where we were and we believe there is more to come," continued Lotterer. "It is still a new car and we are still getting to know it, still exploiting the set-up and things like that.
"We're looking forward to an exciting rest of the season."
IS TOYOTA OUT OF IT?

It might look that way on the evidence of the final result. The best of the Toyota TS050 HYBRIDs was a lap down in fifth in the hands of Sebastien Buemi, Anthony Davidson and Kazuki Nakajima, yet there is still an upbeat air in the Japanese manufacturer's camp.
Toyota knew the Nurburgring was probably going to be its worst race of the second leg of the WEC. It always suspected that it would be light on downforce on the track that requires more high-speed grip than any of the remaining venues.
Yet it posted a performance much worse - or much worse overall - than it was expecting. It had problems keeping the TS050 within the optimum performance window on the two compounds of Michelin tyre available.
"It wasn't as bad as it looked," said Davidson. "Our problem is that we were in between the two tyres.
"It was a bit too hot for the medium-temperature tyre and a bit too cold for the high-temperature tyre, and the way the track evolved didn't help us either."
Davidson admitted that the Toyota Motorsport squad was "bamboozled" by its initial lack of performance on tyres that had worked well in similar conditions during free practice on Friday. A change of compound improved the situation for the TS050s over the second half of the race.
"The good thing," added Davidson, "is that we saw glimpses of performance during the race.
"I'm still looking forward to winning a race on merit over the rest of the year. That's the target and I believe we can do it."
It would be wrong to write off Toyota on the basis of its showing at the Nurburgring because we have already seen it bounce back from similar problems already this season.
Most pertinently, it struggled in qualifying at Spa in May, partly as a result of its tyre strategy, yet Davidson and his team-mates would have won the race but for an engine failure.
PORSCHE IS STILL THE FAVOURITE

Porsche sits in the pound seats as the WEC circus prepares to leave Europe for the five flyaways.
Not only does it have handy advantages in the points - 33 for Jani, Marc Lieb and Romain Dumas in the drivers' and 35 in the manufacturers' - but it also appears to have a car that it can make work on a consistent basis.
Porsche has shown none of the inconsistency of its rivals this season. But then that is to be expected. It is running an update of last year's championship winner, whereas Audi and Toyota have all-new cars.
That new machinery also incorporates new technology, the same battery tech that Porsche has been using since 2014. The Stuttgart marque has the bank of experience, the know-how to make the most of its advantages, that Audi and Toyota are missing.
That's why the battle at the sharp end of the WEC should get closer through the season.
Audi showed again on Sunday it can take the fight to Porsche on a high-downforce track, just as it did at Silverstone in April.
Toyota, meanwhile, has already proved this season that you should never write off the TS050's chances.

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