What we have learned at Le Mans so far

PORSCHE LIVES UP TO 'FAVOURITE' TAG
By Gary Watkins

Nothing that's happened so far at Le Mans this year - Audi's table-topping pace at the test day included - has done anything to lengthen the odds on a repeat Porsche victory in the 24 Hours. It remains the pre-race favourite, albeit a narrow one.

But, on the other hand, a one-two in qualifying has done nothing to shorten the odds. No one was betting against a Porsche pole position, certainly not rivals Audi and Toyota.

Porsche takes the status as favourite for two reasons: that supremacy in qualifying seems set to to convert into a narrow advantage on race pace, at least in dry conditions; and its updated 2016-spec 919 Hybrid is the most proven of the trio factory LMP1 machines.

There could also be another ace up its sleeve. The 919 managed a 14-lap stint at the test day, and if it can achieve one lap more than its rivals in the race, then it will be hard to beat.

TOYOTA HAS SHOWN ITS HAND
By Glenn Freeman

Toyota declared itself "in the game" after qualifying, which means the performance of its TS050 sits somewhere between the Japanese manufacturer's form in the last two years.

In 2014 Toyota was the game, and in 2015 it arrived at La Sarthe knowing it barely had a seat at the table. This year, it has qualified one second off pole, although Neel Jani was held up by traffic on his best lap in the #2 Porsche.

Of note, the #6 Toyota, which lines up third on the grid, was probably LMP1 factory car to get the clearest lap in qualifying, so it could be that it is the only team we have seen the true pace from.

Fastest Toyota qualifier Stephane Sarrazin is no slouch, although it would have been interesting to see what Anthony Davidson could have done with clear track in the #5 machine. But the same could be said for Toyota's rivals.

Toyota also seemed more willing than most to log laps in the troublesome conditions of Thursday (73 laps compared with Audi's 55 and Porsche's 43), with all of its drivers happy with the car's handling in changeable and wet conditions.

That experience is surely going to come in useful at some point during the 24 Hours.

THE WEATHER WILL PLAY ITS PART
By Glenn Freeman

While the rain ruined most of qualifying, there's no disputing a repeat of those conditions during the race would spice things up - and the forecast for Saturday in particular suggests there's more wet running to come.

At the time of writing, predictions have the chance of rain on Saturday afternoon and into the evening at around 60-70%, with Sunday looking set to be dry.

The bad weather is expected to come in from the north, potentially arriving just in time for the start of the race. Just in case there were any more reasons required to make the first hour even more of a 'don't miss' than usual...

AUDI'S STUTTERING START
By Glenn Freeman

Audi hasn't got near repeating its test day-topping form so far this week, but to be fair it hasn't really had the chance.

Work required on both cars ahead of Wednesday qualifying meant Audi missed the short window of track time utilised by Porsche and Toyota to set their best times early in that session, and by the time the R18s joined the track they were constantly foiled by rain or yellow flags and slow zones, with Thursday's washed out sessions offering no chance to make up for that.

Audi admits it hasn't made the best calls with set-up during the track time it's had at its disposal this week, so the conditions have added to those difficulties by limiting the amount of time it can spend assessing subsequent changes on track.

Joest team director Ralf Juttner accepts "to claim we are optimally prepared would be an exaggeration", but the same goes for most in the pitlane and Audi Sport chief Wolfgang Ullrich has urged his team to accept that qualifying didn't go to plan and move on.

The part of this event where Audi usually excels - the race - is still to come, so there's very little concern in the camp.

FORD TOO FAST ON ITS COMEBACK...
By Scott Mitchell

Dirk Muller and Ryan Briscoe secured the brand-new Ford GT a one-two on the grid for its Le Mans debut - but its speed prompted a Balance of Performance update before the race itself.

Ford's return to the 24 Hours was one of the race's big talking points but how competitive its quartet of Chip Ganassi Racing-run GTs was an unknown after a slow start to its WEC campaign and one fuel-saving-earned victory in America.

Its true pace was finally revealed when Muller pulled a last-gasp 3m51.185s out of the bag in the opening qualifying session, a time that was 4.8s quicker than last year's pole lap.

But that effort, which was almost six seconds faster in qualifying than Ford managed on the Le Mans test day, has prompted the rulemakers to act.

The four Fords run by the two arms of Chip Ganassi Racing have had their minimum weight raised by 10kg, while engine power has also been cut with a revised table of turbo boost ratios.

Ford had shown encouraging race pace in the qualifying sessions, matching Ferrari on similar short stints - but the impact of the BoP changes now makes that a very unreliable barometer for what is to come.

...BUT FERRARI IS GTE FAVOURITE
By Scott Mitchell

Ferrari has had 15kg added to the minimum weight of its two AF Corse-run 488s and the Risi Competizione entry.

Gianmaria Bruni split the Fords in his #51 AF Corse car, and in addition to the low-fuel, flat-out qualifying efforts that made headlines, the car also looked on top in race trim and had good pace in the wet.

Given the Ferrari has been pegged back to a lesser degree than the Ford, it has to start the race as favourite - even though its advantage has been eaten into and the others have been handed a boost.

Porsche, Chevrolet and Aston Martin were cut adrift on race pace as well as in qualifying trim on Wednesday and Thursday, but they will be brought into contention following the BoP changes.

The Vantage GTE and Corvette C7.R have each been allowed an engine air-restrictor 0.2mm larger in diameter, while the 911 RSR has had an increase in fuel tank size from 95 to 98 litres.

That trio of cars is targeting the 3m54s in terms of race pace and it should be achievable following those breaks - especially as the Ferraris and Fords will fall back into that range following the BoP changes.

LMP2 IS WIDE OPEN
By Mitchell Adam

Given that five different entries claimed the six podium positions across the Silverstone and Spa WEC rounds, a competitive LMP2 is no surprise. But the limited dry running in practice and qualifying underlined the fact that we'll have the best part of a dozen legitimate contenders.

G-Drive's ORECA has no obvious weak link and has looked good when it matters, with Rene Rast claiming pole position by about six tenths over the ORECA-based Alpines of Baxi DC Racing and Signatech - the latter having won at Spa.

In a group containing strong line-ups from Manor, Extreme Speed Motorsports, Thiriet by TDS Racing, Strakka and KCMG, the top 10 is covered by 2.865s.

Defending winner KCMG led the way in practice, then lost out with yellow flags and rain in qualifying, but Matt Howson remains "very confident" about the pace of its ORECA. Starting ninth in a 24-hour race is hardly the biggest obstacle you can face.

Beyond the top 10, the second the G-Drive Gibson can never be discounted given Jota's Le Mans record, and RGR Sport by Morand, which won at Silverstone, starts 13th, its weekend set back slightly by Bruno Senna's crash in practice.

AUDI'S GT DRIVERS STAR IN CAMEOS
By Mitchell Adam

Nick Tandy and Earl Bamber are the highest-profile casualties of Porsche and Audi's decision to run two rather than three LMP1 cars this week, but Audi GT ace Rene Rast is making the most of the situation with his move back to LMP2.

The German is proving his versatility in 2016, adding a full WEC LMP2 programme with
G-Drive to his GT output, and impressed in a one-off Formula E run last month. He had the responsibility of qualifying G-Drive's #26 on Wednesday night and didn't waste the opportunity.

Rast set the pace by half a second early with a 3m37.168s, then improved again at the end, his 3m36.605s restoring the margin that had been all-but eradicated. It would have been interesting to see more of a battle with other drivers in a 'clean' qualifying, but Rast is looking good in his LMP2 return.

Another Audi GT regular, Laurens Vanthoor was quick in 2015 with OAK Racing, and stays in a Ligier this year, run by Michael Shank Racing.

He put it fifth in qualifying, the best of the non-ORECAS. But the car will have to serve a five-minute penalty in the first half of the race after an unscheduled Honda engine change, which is a dent to his quest for a strong result.

SAUSSET'S DREAM IS A REALITY
By Jack Cozens

Frederic Sausset has accomplished another stage in his extraordinary Le Mans story, completing two runs in Wednesday's first and Thursday's second qualifying sessions.

A quadruple amputee, Sausset lost both of his hands and his legs above the knees after picking up an aggressive infection. It was during that spell in hospital that he came up with the idea of racing at Le Mans and, with only the race now ahead of him, Sausset is less than 48 hours away from completing that dream.

Driving a specially adapted Morgan LMP2 machine (run by OAK Racing), Sausset steers one-handed with his prosthetic right arm and controls the accelerator and brake pedals with paddles underneath his thighs in his seat insert - which means SRT41 team-mates Christophe Tinseau and Jean-Bernard Bouvet can still drive it in the conventional way.

The Frenchman's first goal on Wednesday night was a simple one: to complete the five laps of running mandated in order to qualify for the race. Sausset achieved that with aplomb. His performance in qualifying was a more than respectable one, as he recorded a best time of 4m01.138s on the fifth of a six-lap run.

He completed a further four laps in Thursday evening's second session, lapping half a second slower than his initial pace - although he looked as though he might have improved before the weather intervened.

Team-mate Christophe Tinseau recorded the car's quickest time, a 3m45.178s - qualifying faster than the Krohn Racing Ligier Nissan in the full LMP2 class.

Of course, Sausset's biggest challenge is still to come when he heads out on to the track for the first time in race conditions, but his achievements so far this weekend are already remarkable.

BRUNDLE'S STILL GOT IT
By Jack Cozens

It's four years since Martin Brundle last raced at Le Mans - when he shared a Greaves Motorsport Zytek-Nissan with son Alex and Lucas Ordonez in the 24 Hours - but his storming run to pole in the supporting Road to Le Mans qualifying session shows he's lost little of the pace that has most notably produced one win and a pole at the Circuit de la Sarthe.

Brundle's first two attempts in Friday's half-hour qualifying session left him second in his United Autosports Ligier JSP3 (usually raced by Alex in the European Le Mans Series), but the Briton finally grabbed provisional pole late on with an effort of 3m55.748s.

That proved to be enough as a red flag with two minutes left on the clock brought the session to a premature end, handing Brundle a first pole at Le Mans since his effort in 1999 in the Toyota GT-One.

A sprightly Brundle admitted on Thursday after the qualifying session that he'd revelled in the 'sprint' nature of the dry qualifying session, with rain having affected both practice sessions.

"It was almost like turning up to a race event and going straight into qualifying," he told Autosport.

"I was too cautious on the brakes and then improved it dramatically. I knew I was still P2 so I just went for it and pushed my luck; I had a couple of scary moments in the Porsche Curves and had to scoop it up.

"When I see the young guys sitting with me it feels slightly weird to be up there at 57 [years old]. But the speed is still there - I don't think you lose it, you only ever lose the need when you get older."