10 things we've learned from Le Mans 2024 so far

1. Forget qualifying, Porsche still has three strong cars

Porsche may have only got one factory 963 LMDh through into Hyperpole — and ended up topping the times with Kevin Estre — but Porsche Penske Motorsport still has three competitive cars going into the race. The pace of the trio in free practice means that a marque that entered race week looking like a clear pre-event favourite suggests it still has three bullets in the gun.

PPM boss Jonathan Diuguid reckons the team has three equally matched cars going into the race. The problem it encountered in Q1 was getting a traffic-free lap with cars #5 and #4. “Managing the traffic during first qualifying isn’t easy,” he said. “We are 15-20s faster than the LMGT3 cars, so finding a hole isn’t easy. No matter what you do, you are going to catch one.”

Matt Campbell and Nick Tandy missed out on Hyperpole after encountering slower cars when it mattered, but Diuguid isn’t too downbeat. What’s more, there could be benefits of having the three cars starting P1, P10 and P19.

“We’ve looked at all the practice runs and the long runs, and all the cars are performing at a high level,” he explained. “We can use the starting positions to cover off different strategy options, which - with the way the weather forecast is going - could be quite important.” GW

2. Ferrari faces a tough challenge to make it two in a row

Ferrari looked strong to repeat its Le Mans victory from 12 months ago, but practice pace and BOP changes have swung the odds away from the Italian manufacturer

Photo by: Alexander Trienitz

Ferrari can no longer be regarded as favourite to repeat its 2023 Le Mans victory. The odds have lengthened on a manufacturer that could — and arguably should — have won the previous two WEC races since track action began at Le Mans with last Sunday’s Test Day.

Last year, the Ferrari had a clear straightline speed advantage as it edged out Toyota in a thrilling battle for victory that went down to the wire. Twelve months on that advantage has disappeared thanks to the new power gain feature of the Balance of Performance, which adjusts maximum power above 250km/h (155mph). The 499P Le Mans Hypercar has lost 1.6% over the magic 250 mark.

Asked about the implications of that, Ferdinando Cannizzo, technical director Ferrari’s sportscar department, pointed out that a Hypercar class entry is above 250 klicks for 45% of the long Le Mans lap. He then asked Autosport to “draw your own conclusions”.

Ferrari doesn’t have the fastest car — which it did for substantial periods last year — so it is going to have get creative, reckons Cannizzo. It will need to avoid mistakes out on the track, on the pitwall and in the pits and, he said, “race to our strengths” if it is going to make it two in a row. GW

3. McLaren's Le Mans return is going well

A McLaren on pole in LMGT3 at Le Mans - but can it follow it up with victory?

Photo by: Alexander Trienitz

Taking pole for a 24-hour race means relatively little in the grand scheme of things, but you'd be forgiven for thinking otherwise witnessing the scenes of jubilation in the Inception Racing pitbox after Brendan Iribe surged to the top of the LMGT3 Hyperpole times. The American was the only driver to improve after the red flag to cement McLaren's strong start to its first Le Mans appearance since 1998.

Shaun Goff, boss of the Optimum Motorsport team that has run McLarens for Iribe in the IMSA SportsCar Championship and GT World Challenge Europe for several seasons, predicted that its 720S GT3 EVO will "show its strength in the race" against the WEC regulars. But whatever happens next, the tight-knit British team that counts former racer Bas Leinders as team manager has shown McLaren is here to be counted.

In doing so, it earned bragging rights over United Autosports, new to the McLarens this year, as both its cars missed out on Hyperpole with traffic-blighted laps. Bronze driver James Cottingham admitted before his FP3 accident at Tertre Rouge that United had "kind of got our arm behind our back" as it seeks to play catch-up, and team boss Richard Dean's revelation that team's gameplan is "just keep out of the pits and not get dragged into a sprint race" didn't betray confidence.

But, having come close to winning at Spa and shown well at Imola prior to a puncture, United cannot be ruled out. McLaren has every chance of a landmark result with both squads. JN

4. Qualifying was a disaster, but Toyota is still in the mix

Toyota is another of the big hitters on the backfoot but its recent domination of the event means it isn't panicking

Photo by: Alexander Trienitz

Given that Toyota achieved six consecutive Le Mans pole positions from 2017 to 2022 – albeit with much less competition – it was strange not to see any of the Japanese cars in Hyperpole. Not just strange: it was a "disappointment", technical director David Floury conceded to Autosport.

The #8 machine driven by Brendon Hartley didn't make the top 10, 0.981 seconds off the fastest time, with Floury explaining it had just one clear lap.

"The luck aspect is very important," the Frenchman said. "Having clear laps is even more difficult with our position in the pits, because we can't be first out of the pits, it's impossible. So we have to shift our runs, which generally gives us traffic in the first run."

Meanwhile, Toyota team principal and track record holder Kamui Kobayashi could have been fourth fastest but for getting his #7 car beached into the gravel at Corvette corner, which caused a red flag. All of his lap times were deleted as a consequence.

"Pushing the limit and being caught out is not unusual in qualifying," Floury added.

Starting the race from 11th and 23rd, the Toyotas certainly cannot be ruled out of contention based on the pace they have shown so far - even though Floury is "not certain we've seen the potential of all the cars".

"When you see that some manage to improve their lap time by more than three seconds in race pace from the Test Day to FP1, it clearly shows that not everyone constantly runs at their optimal performance level," he concluded. "The real performance picture, we won't see it before the race." BV

5. A Pro-Am crew could challenge in LMP2

Deletraz predicts 10 LMP2 squads can fight for class victory - including the Pro-Am runners

Photo by: Alexander Trienitz

Three of the top four squads on the LMP2 grid are Pro-Am entries and so that naturally raises the question of whether a trio from the sub-category can triumph in the class outright. These crews feature a bronze-graded amateur, while the regular contenders only need a silver.

Polesitter Louis Deletraz certainly feels his AO by TF entry shared with Alex Quinn and bronze PJ Hyett can challenge. "I genuinely think the Pro-Am cars can be up there this year," Deletraz - who described his pole as "good for the ego but I want to win on Sunday at 4pm" - told Autosport. "I think there are 10 P2s that can fight for the overall win."

Last year's Le Mans GTE winner Ben Keating is among the bronzes on the entry and also believes victory is possible. He said he almost halved the deficit to his higher-graded team-mates from the test day to the end of Wednesday practice.

However, a glance at the combined practice timesheets highlights the gulf between the bronzes and the rest. While a mix of variables are at play - not least differing conditions - all of the amateurs aside Keating were eight or more seconds off the fastest LMP2 time, demonstrating the size of the challenge.

Yet outright speed is far from the only factor in determining success. Ask any LMP2 driver and they talk about how competitive it is this year, and how minimising mistakes is ultimately the key. Also, with the present safety car rules at Le Mans, it is harder for cars to lose a lap and therefore bronzes can use up their required driving time when under caution. And all that means a Pro-Am partnership still has a chance of glory. SL

6. BMW's soft tyre advantage might be key

BMW's prowess on the soft tyres could be an ace up its sleeve

Photo by: Marc Fleury

The BMW M Hybrid V8 likes the soft Michelin tyre available at Le Mans. Dries Vanthoor topped the times in opening qualifying on the softest of the three compounds the French supplier has brought here. The Belgian was on the soft again in Hyperpole but failed to replicate his Wednesday form after going off at Indianapolis.

BMW’s pace on the soft is significant. It’s the tyre that the majority of the Hypercars will be running on during the night when conditions are at their coolest — the soft is designed to work when track temperatures are between 0 and 15deg C.

The window in which the soft is the tyre to be on was always likely to be brought forward into Saturday evening and be extended into Sunday morning in the absence of tyre heaters this year. The warm-up characteristics of the tyre are significantly better than the medium. Now the weather forecast is pointing towards sporadic showers during the race it could be brought into play more frequently. The reason? It’s designed to work as a pseudo-intermediate. Suddenly BMW is looking like much more than a dark horse. GW

7. Ford's weakness masked at Le Mans

Ford's progress is clear to see at Le Mans, but is it enough to victory for the podium this weekend?

Photo by: Marc Fleury

Ben Barker's storming lap to top qualifying on Thursday, before Ryan Hardwick secured fourth in Hyperpole, was comfortably the best showing to date for the new Ford Mustang GT3 in the WEC this season. Progress has certainly been made on its understanding of torque sensors which had been a limiting factor in the early rounds, but perhaps the biggest factor behind its breakthrough is the characteristics of the Circuit de la Sarthe.

Larry Holt, motorsport boss of the Multimatic company that builds the Mustang, explained to Autosport that its higher centre of gravity relative to the LMGT3 opposition "isn't as important here" since there are "only two or three places where it actually raises its ugly head". That meant he came into the event with "high expectations that we were going to show better than anywhere" it has been to date. So far, that has borne out.

Holt acknowledges that showing well in the race will need more than one-lap pace, though is confident in the car's reliability and the ability of Proton's drivers to avoid trouble at the scene of arguably Ford's biggest motorsport achievement in breaking Ferrari's stranglehold on the event in 1966.

"The two work hand in hand, Ford and Le Mans, it's a nice place to show our credentials," said Barker. But the biggest test is still to come. JN

8. LMP2 is the same but also different

LMP2 drivers might have the oldest cars on the grid but they also face fresh challenges

Photo by: Rainier Ehrhardt

LMP2 may be the oldest class at Le Mans - and the current machinery is soon going to be verging on historic after a further delay to the next generation's introduction - but there are still fresh challenges for the drivers in this year's race.

Many of them have been used to competing in the ORECA-Gibson 07s in this season's European Le Mans Series, but this runs to a different specification where there is 40bhp more power and the cars are 20kgs lighter. However, United Autosports racer - and 2017 Le Mans LMP2 winner - Oliver Jarvis said the biggest difference to adjust to is the reduced downforce from the aero package. "You take that [downforce] away and it makes the car more difficult to drive," said Jarvis. "That plays a part with the gentlemen as well – they notice it."

But Jarvis also highlighted another change for 2024 that could have an impact. The burgeoning Hypercar field now stands at 23 entries, meaning a lot of cars to deal with. "They're very fast on the straights but not so fast in some of the corners, so we're actually quicker in the corners than them," Jarvis explained. "The worst thing is, it's not necessarily the tenth or two or the second you lose, it's the fact it could back you into other cars, and that's when incidents occur." SL

9. LMP2 return won't change GT drivers' approach

Concerns over different class cars tripping over each other have subsided

Photo by: Marc Fleury

Since Le Mans doesn't form part of any championship for LMP2 drivers, there's no consolation for finishing second. GT racers could therefore be forgiven for being apprehensive about a gung-ho approach from crews that have nothing to loose. Further complicating matters, the GT3 cars are strong in the hard-braking zones thanks to ABS, which the previous generation of GTE cars lacked, and so will be more evenly matched approaching some of the circuit's overtaking hot spots.

"The driver levels throughout the P2 field is quite varied," reflected Heart of Racing Aston Martin driver and team boss Ian James. "I think it will add an extra element, because they're fast enough to clear us easily down the streets, but they're not next-level Hypercar where five or six of them can go by easily. The LMP2s are the joker in the pack."

But having shared the track in practice, most drivers are convinced they can approach the race as any other. Proton Ford's Barker maintains that "nothing has changed" in that respect. "For us, it's just another Le Mans where we've got P2s in the mix and obviously the Hypercars," he told Autosport.

And for United Autosports boss Dean, who enters cars in both the P2 and LMGT3 classes, the "air of desperation here" cannot solely be pinned on LMP2 cars.

"The Hypercars are coming past irrespective of where they catch you, it's ferocious," he remarked. "I think you're as likely to get caught out by a Hypercar as a P2 car." JN

10. We'll be seeing these cars for a while yet

The current cars, rules and classes will be the face of Le Mans for a long while yet

Photo by: Shameem Fahath

The current breed of prototype cars that compete in Hypercar and LMP2 classes will now enjoy an extended tenure in international sportscar racing.

The LMH cars that debuted in 2021 and the LMDh contenders that came on stream last year will continue to be a part of the World Endurance Championship and the IMSA SportsCar Championship until the end of the 2029 season.

The LMH cars were originally introduced in WEC as part of a five-year lifecycle following the demise of LMP1, but their term was already extended by two years when LMDh cars joined the fray in 2023. The announcement on the eve of this year’s Le Mans 24 Hours means the current LMH rules will now remain in place for a total of nine years, while LMDh regs will have a slightly shorter lifespan at seven years.

Meanwhile, the existing LMP2 formula has received another one-year extension, taking it through to the end of 2027. That’s a full 11 years after the category was originally introduced with ORECA, Ligier, Dallara and Riley/Multimatic as the four chassis builders. RT

By Gary Watkins, James Newbold, Ben Vinel, Stephen Lickorish and Rachit Thukral

After all the talk and preparation, the 2024 Le Mans 24 Hours is next

Photo by: Shameem Fahath