NASCAR's revamp: madness or genius?

Whenever you're trying to make sense of something going on in NASCAR, it often helps to go and check out what Penske's Brad Keselowski is saying about it.

It's not just that he's outspoken that makes him interesting. Among NASCAR drivers, he's hardly alone in that regard.

Nor is it the fact that he's willing to take an unpopular stance if it's something he believes in. What makes Keselowski's views worth investigating are that whatever his argument may be, it's clear that he's not speaking off the cuff.

Denouncing NASCAR's new baseline concussion test last year took some cojones against the backdrop of increasing concerns about brain injuries, but whether you agreed with him or not, you couldn't fault the way he justified his position.

On that basis, his reaction to NASCAR's recently-announced overhaul of its Chase system represents a good starting point for anyone trying to dig into why the 2014 Sprint Cup champion will be decided via a play-off system for the first time. And Keselowski's response, made via social media immediately after the changes were announced? "Evolve or die".

For some, especially those watching from afar, the idea of NASCAR 'dying' might seem laughable. The image it projects is one of absolute strength; a vibrant powerhouse that stands shoulder-to-shoulder with America's other great sporting properties.

Talladega is among the tracks cutting capacity © LAT

When you view it relative to IndyCar, that projection largely holds up, although that says as much about IndyCar's ongoing battle for relevance as anything else.

All of the facts tell a slightly different story. The series is not on the ropes, but the sheen has nevertheless dulled a little over the past few years. Declining attendances have prompted several tracks to reduce their seating capacity, partly to avoid the sight of empty stands being broadcast on TV, and partly to reinvigorate a buzz around ticket availability by making them more scarce.

One report made an informal tally last year. Talladega's 18,000-seat Allison Grandstand is gone; Daytona plans to reduce its capacity from 146,000 to 101,000 (in part by making some seats larger); Texas is not selling tickets for its 10,000-seat grandstand on the back straight for either of its Cup races this year.

There are more: Dover's capacity has been slashed by 19,000; Phoenix has removed 20,000 seats; Michigan's capacity grew by over 150 per cent between 1990 and 2006 - and will settle at almost half its peak capacity this year. Several other tracks cover empty sections with signage.

TV figures have slumped too, to the tune of almost 50 per cent compared with the glory years of the mid-2000s. Yet just to be contrary, the series has just signed a new TV deal starting next year that almost doubles the value of its broadcast rights from a reported average of $560 million per year to a brain-stinging $820 million.

Part of the inflation was the happy by-product of more competition among specialist sports networks in the US, with relatively new arrivals like NBC Sports trying to establish themselves as rivals to powerhouses like ESPN. But still, with that kind of money on the horizon, things clearly aren't all bad.

NASCAR believes its fans will welcome the new format © LAT

So why such drastic change? Or 'changes', given that the arrival of the new Chase format coincides with other major revamps including an overhaul of qualifying and a more transparent system for adjudicating technical infractions?

According to NASCAR, the new-look Chase is a reaction to fan feedback.

"Fundamentally it's anchored in a fan-centric strategy," said Gene Stefanyshyn; NASCAR vice-president of innovation and racing development.

"That is the foundation element of this. We listen to our fans. We're innovating and evolving. You need to evolve and adapt to your environment or else you become stagnant and become extinct.

"We looked at the tradition. We looked at the history. We tried to find a very good balance to be true to our history and our tradition, yet go to the new world.

"Again, our key number one was what do the fans want? What are they talking about? What is going to excite them and keep them watching our sport and bring in new fans?"

Ironically, the initial fan response seems to be mixed, at least among the ones active on social media.

Newman is sceptical © LAT

The reaction from within the NASCAR community itself has largely been positive, although not universally so. Richard Childress Racing's Ryan Newman is one of the outliers, puzzled that NASCAR should be influenced by the US professional gridiron and basketball leagues both making use of a play-off system.

"I don't think we can take everything the NFL or NBA is doing and say, 'We need to do it like this' because they're doing it like that and it's working," Newman said.

"This is still stock-car racing. This is NASCAR. A certain percentage of change is good, but we do not need to copy the play-off system."

Dale Earnhardt Jr provides the counter-argument:

"Let's change it all," Earnhardt said. "A lot of times we change things for the fans, and I think the drivers are going to enjoy some of this stuff as much as the fans are.

"When you look at other forms of sport, there's an elimination factor in the play-offs that we don't have. We, as drivers, don't feel the intensity of an elimination factor being over our shoulders every race.

"I feel like we've had it easy in that regard where we just tally up points. Coming down to Homestead with four guys [racing for the championship], that's crazy, but it's exciting."

Kurt Busch was the first Chase-era champion in 2004 © LAT

NASCAR proved long ago that it's not afraid of change, particularly where the Chase is concerned; this will be the Chase's fourth iteration since it was first rolled out in 2004, although the latest overhaul is by far the most dramatic.

Where other changes were essentially revisions to a set system, new format reaches to the very heart of what NASCAR racing is all about: consistency over the course of a season has been radically devalued; winning is now everything.

Some traditionalists will hate it; others, citing Jimmie Johnson's sixth championship last year, will embrace anything that might shake things up. (That said, there's little evidence that Johnson will be disadvantaged by the new system).

Even those who love the purity of a 'regular' championship campaign have to admit that it can have its drawbacks. Anyone remember the 2002 Formula 1 season?

Only NASCAR would have the nerve to attempt something this radical, and it's hard not to be a little intrigued at how an elimination play-off system will work at such a high level of motorsport.

And if it's a dud? No problem. NASCAR will simply change it again. The new TV deal looming for 2015 places a huge emphasis on getting next year right, but for 2014, there's a little more room for risk-taking.